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Nov. 10-11th snow event thing


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NAM is really a low outlier as far as qpf.  I'd say the GFS sort of splits the difference between the NAM and the foreign models.  On another note, starting to get in range of the extended HRRR and RAP runs that go out 36 and 39 hours, respectively, and will be interesting to see how they handle the lake enhanced band. 

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I think about 3" is a reasonable starting point around here.  At least that is about where I would put the floor.  That is factoring in only a very small contribution to totals from the lake band due to concerns about residence time and boundary layer temps, except perhaps as CAA increases and the band is exiting and winds flip a little more offshore.  If the band lingers longer than expected and temps aren't an issue, then totals around 5-6" would become more likely. 

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I see this event as been very similar to earlier in the week only south and the american models were grossly underdone with that event. This time around the frontogenesis should be even better with a stronger baroclinicity. Atmosphere should be really efficient at wringing out the moisture available.

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1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

3" call looking solid

Gotta appreciate the rarity of getting multiple snows this early in Chicago.  There have only been 3 years when multiple 1"+ snows occurred by 11/15.  If we restrict it to 4"+ snows, it has only happened once.  

10/29-30/1906:  2.2" ; 11/11-12/1906:  2.1"

11/3/1951:  4.4" ; 11/6-7/1951:  9.3"

11/9/2018:  1.0" ; 11/15/2018:  1.1"

10/30-31/2019:  4.6" ;  TBD

 

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