Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Euro hits us good next week Euro hit us good this week. That worked out how? I guess they’ll say that’s also a meltdown post 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro hit us good this week. That worked out how? I guess they’ll say that’s also a meltdown post Lol...when the trends were going bad yesterday afternoon..you said the trends were looking good. Ginx told you that the probs were heading north yesterday afternoon, and you argued they were getting better for SNE. ?? You are off to a poor start. Time to step up your game DIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 0z NAM heading in the right direction 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Looks great if you like cold rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Dr. Dews said: Looks great if you like cold rain Changes to snow at the end here but wont accumulate to anything.... one more shift like that though were back in business to atleast whiten ground here.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Changes to snow at the end here but wont accumulate to anything.... one more shift like that though were back in business to atleast whiten ground here.. It's a torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 You really want better cooling of the bl because that nam looks awful through 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 NAM is pretty cold during the day Friday after it shuts off. Afternoon temps in the mid 30s at BOS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 45 minutes ago, Dr. Dews said: Looks great if you like cold rain It shifted south and made alot more areas in SNE in play for some snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 exciting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 I am not really liking this threat, I am more intrigued as the arctic air is present for early to mid next week period. I need the arctic air situated before I like threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I am not really liking this threat, I am more intrigued as the arctic air is present for early to mid next week period. I need the arctic air situated before I like threats. This threat is a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: Euro hit us good this week. That worked out how? I guess they’ll say that’s also a meltdown post Best threat we've had so far. Lot of model support sans FV3 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Definitely a trend towards a few flakes at the end on guidance now. Maybe whiten the ground NW of Boston by 10-15 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 On 11/4/2019 at 8:22 PM, Damage In Tolland said: According to the gov’t. Not sure why you’re so angry. But it’s not called the GFS anymore Upgrade to the FV3Edit On June 12, 2019, after several years of testing, NOAA upgraded the GFS with a new core and dynamic scaling that uses the finite volume method. The resulting model, being developed under the name finite-volume cubed-sphere model (FV3), inherited the GFS moniker, with the archaic GFS model continuing to be run until December 2019.[9][10] Initial testing of the FV3 showed promise, outperforming the Integrated Forecast System in terms of hurricane tracks during the 2017 hurricane season (the IFS had been the most accurate operational model in predicting the paths).[11] FV3 is the core, GFS is the name. Still poop emoji. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoalaBeer Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Nothing like having a second meltdown over someone else telling you already had one. Just to funny. I'll be happy if I see any flakes this week and will wait to see if we can cash in early next week. Would rather see the slopes get the goods this time of year anyways even if that means rain for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: FV3 is the core, GFS is the name. Still poop emoji. We tried to tell him that yesterday..but he just wouldn’t listen lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 11 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: We've been boiled slowly like a frog into being tricked that we don't notice that day 3-4 back in 2011 considerably worse than it is now. Hell, back in 2007 or 2008 we used to weenie tag people starting a thread for a threat that was 5 days out...now it's pretty rare that a threat makes it to even 4 days out without a thread. And as has been mention ad nauseam, the graphics improvements in the past 5-7 years have been incredible...but that hurts people's perceptions IMHO. We look at pretty QPF maps and snow maps that have been resolved down to 5-10 sq km and it creates this false sense of accuracy when they shouldn't. We used to be more skeptical of QPF and that seemed to create more discussion on the model variables that scored higher like H5 and midlevels. We still discuss that but those maps always seem to go viral everywhere and force their way into the forefront of the discussions. I get it...they look nice and they have some utility, especially when the model uncertainty isn't high...it can highlight favored areas. But in setups (which are frequent) that there is more uncertainty or marginal temp profiles, they can be a distraction. Precision and accuracy. Models are quite accurate, but they are rarely precise anymore. You aren't going to see run after run of the same solution given both the frequency of runs and model resolution. When your grid scale was 80 km, subtle shifts made little difference to the outcome. When you drill that down to 13 km and start focusing on QPF/snow maps you are going to see some big moves from haves to have nots. There is a reason why the best mets are using the forecast funnel approach (large scale to small, top down). Like mid level magic. It isn't just a term we made up for the picnic tables, it's that modeling frequently overdoes QPF near the low center (with latent heat release) and underestimates forcing via deformation processes (in Canada that reads "DEE-formation PRO-sess-ees"). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 8 hours ago, dendrite said: I wonder when Ray will issue his first call for the picnic tables? When the arctic hounds are unleashed on hell, and the devil wades through sea ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 8 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: Where is Rays location, i honestly am still unsure after these past 5 years here...All i can gather is its somewhere remote, somewhere north and snowy, most likely N MA but not ruling out VT or NH either. It took you five years to glance over under my avatar? I moved about 12 mi due north last fall, from Wilmington to Methuen, MA. Not at all remote. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 We’ll enjoy the fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Storm fail thread fail Euro big fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 First headfake of the season. From a snowstorm that almost whiffed to a swfe to a front in about 3 days. Very impressive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Storm fail thread fail Euro big fail At least the euro had something. The GFS for days had absolutely nothing at all. But yeah, overall not the best performance from guidance. However, these type of set ups, are difficult on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 How is euro a big fail when it corrected when we were around d5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Checking in on this, as expected, went to poop. Oh well, heading to california for a week, hopefully can start tracking a white turkey day when I get back.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 19 minutes ago, weathafella said: How is euro a big fail when it corrected when we were around d5? That’s why next weeks threat is not legitimate. It’s the Euro pulling its usual nonsense like this week. Dry, cold next week 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 next week is surely a lock 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s why next weeks threat is not legitimate. It’s the Euro pulling its usual nonsense like this week. Dry, cold next week GFS, Canadian, and Euro have it but still 6 days or so out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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