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A little pre-season thread: Can Nov. 8 pull off an early win?


moneypitmike
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Just now, Hoth said:

That's an ouch in my hood, but would hardly be surprising given the time of year. Still, a very nice early season system in general.

This is prob a tough setup for the south coast in general. Still a ways to go, but we'd probably want to see the cold press another 50-100 miles south before the wave moves in to benefit the south coast. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is prob a tough setup for the south coast in general. Still a ways to go, but we'd probably want to see the cold press another 50-100 miles south before the wave moves in to benefit the south coast. 

Yeah, my expectations are grounded in reality. Would be nice for the cold to over perform and see a few flakes. We shall see.

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32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hoth may have a better shot than, say, me. He may have issues more just aloft as it doesn't quite cool 925-850, but NE winds here off 55F SSTs would need a hell of a cold airmass. Should be a nice CF near BOS. 

Scooter throwing furniture and breaking windows like Nov 2012 when Jerry was doing naked snow angels in Brookline and you were getting a 34F downpour?

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Scooter throwing furniture and breaking windows like Nov 2012 when Jerry was doing naked snow angels in Brookline and you were getting a 34F downpour?

It's probably good I was talking to you in that late December event. It was like Samaritan's hotline....Will keeping me on the phone, telling me not to do this. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

It's probably good I was talking to you in that late December event. It was like Samaritan's hotline....Will keeping me on the phone, telling me not to do this. 

Lol...yeah it happened twice to you. I forgot that. In the 12/29/12 event too. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol...yeah it happened twice to you. I forgot that. In the 12/29/12 event too. 

I can't be upset in a November event. Climo is hostile for sure. But man that December event...I was really upset. It was this weird tongue of warmth that pivoted over me. Shit, even Bob turned to snow before me. 

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06z EPS came in a little flatter too like the OP. Not surprising. Seems to generally mirror the OP trends and it's not a major shift. But that's probably what you want to see if you are south of the pike...keep the mid-level warmth at bay. 

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19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

That's an extremely tight thermal gradient...could help enhance an extremely narrow axis of some pretty heavy snow depending on how this materializes. Maybe room for some low-end warning criteria along a narrow strip. 

There's definitely a nice looking ribbon of ML fronto potential on this. It's pretty classic for a stripe of heavier snow along that ribbon wherever it sets up. Some of these model runs are trying to wind this up a little bit too before it exits stage right...we'll have to watch that. If it trends a little deeper as we get closer on the late blooming aspect, then we'd have to watch for another area of ML fronto enhancement that starts tilting more NE-SW or even NNE/SSW...but that's something to worry about closer in. 

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Is MT a thing with the Appalachian Mountains? 

Anyways I feel pretty good that the Euro is sniffing this out. The theme for the past few weeks (maybe longer) has been for trough amplification along the Great Lakes...perhaps as a response to the low MT/AAM state we've been in? With that trough developing east of the Rockies through the week that should result in more -MT/AAM. 

November going to be a big winter month  

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's definitely a nice looking ribbon of ML fronto potential on this. It's pretty classic for a stripe of heavier snow along that ribbon wherever it sets up. Some of these model runs are trying to wind this up a little bit too before it exits stage right...we'll have to watch that. If it trends a little deeper as we get closer on the late blooming aspect, then we'd have to watch for another area of ML fronto enhancement that starts tilting more NE-SW or even NNE/SSW...but that's something to worry about closer in. 

This sort of reminds me of a scenario we had maybe early last winter or the winter before...I don't remember if the set-up was as similar, but this concept applied and it worked out very well. There was that crazy strip that went through southern CT and caused a commute nightmare. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This sort of reminds me of a scenario we had maybe early last winter or the winter before...I don't remember if the set-up was as similar, but this concept applied and it worked out very well. There was that crazy strip that went through southern CT and caused a commute nightmare. 

Nov 16 2018 ...but practically every snowstorm causes a commuter nightmare in CT.

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nov 16 2018 ...but practically every snowstorm causes a commuter nightmare in CT.

yup that was the date...and you're not wrong on that :lol: 

I think they got slammed even worse even down in northern NJ. I don't think though that setup was anything like this. 

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yup that was the date...and you're not wrong on that :lol: 

I think they got slammed even worse even down in northern NJ. I don't think though that setup was anything like this. 

Get accumulating snows timed during rush hour and you can kiss your commute goodbye. That storm last Nov I left early around 315pm when the first flakes started flying. I got home as usual maybe an added 10mins. My co-workers left at 5-530pm and it took some a good 4 hours to get to Seymour/Oxford, from Norwalk.  

#weenies-know

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5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Get accumulating snows timed during rush hour and you can kiss your commute goodbye. That storm last Nov I left early around 315pm when the first flakes started flying. I got home as usual maybe an added 10mins. My co-workers left at 5-530pm and it took some a good 4 hours to get to Seymour/Oxford, from Norwalk.  

#weenies-know

Yeah I heard some horrid stories from that..took some people like 4-5 hours to get home...forget that.

I think that was the same storm one of the news stations had a car in front of them drilled by some out of control idiot in a pick-up truck. 

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19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Nov 16 2018 ...but practically every snowstorm causes a commuter nightmare in CT.

Perfectly clear day causes nightmares on 84..Looks like winter around here now, so lets get some early snowfall as long as it doesn't jinx us the rest of the season.

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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Get accumulating snows timed during rush hour and you can kiss your commute goodbye. That storm last Nov I left early around 315pm when the first flakes started flying. I got home as usual maybe an added 10mins. My co-workers left at 5-530pm and it took some a good 4 hours to get to Seymour/Oxford, from Norwalk.  

#weenies-know

My wife works in Tarrytown, right off of Sawmill. I had her leave 1 hour before the snow started....Some of her co-workers ended up spending the night or were stuck for hours on the highway.

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