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A little pre-season thread: Can Nov. 8 pull off an early win?


moneypitmike
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7 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Oh Canada.

I have a question for folks .. heh.  

Suppose the GGEM goes on and verifies even say 80th percentile ... we do realize, it had this almost identical solution like two days ago when nothing..not even tea-leafs it. And summarily the chortles and castigation "defensively" turned thread pages ... 

Shouldn't that mean that the GGEM gets the credit for first sniffing this out?     God that'd be so delicious;  please make that happen so that we can have it do the same thing five days before xmass and everyone has to think about this one -

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The big key in this system is seeing how much the northern stream can interact with the southern stream....notice the huge difference in the northern stream from the GGEM to the GFS....these are today's 12z runs.

 

The GGEM has the northern stream much further southwest than the GFS....this allows the southern stream to phase into it later on which produces the system further north and impacting us

 

Nov3_12zGGEM84.png.06964efb2af3edc14f008d9a006f59e9.png

 

 

 

Now notice the GFS....northern stream shortwave is barely in the picture:

 

Nov3_12zGFS84.png.6ad0e1a1dca65b50b7e44dcd3a42d956.png

 

 

 

This will be something important to watch going forward if this is going to prodce.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The big key in this system is seeing how much the northern stream can interact with the southern stream....notice the huge difference in the northern stream from the GGEM to the GFS....these are today's 12z runs.

The GGEM has the northern stream much further southwest than the GFS....this allows the southern stream to phase into it later on which produces the system further north and impacting us

Now notice the GFS....northern stream shortwave is barely in the picture:

This will be something important to watch going forward if this is going to prodce.

Unsurprisingly the changes in that northern stream are driving the wild run to run swings of varying individual pieces of guidance.

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21 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Didn't say you couldn't, just strange and it's not like our snow fall is similar.

 

9 minutes ago, Sugarloaf1989 said:

Formerly from NYC and Lake Grove. I moved to N. Connecticut partially to be closer to skiing regions.

From Northport LI  travel to Mt Snow every other weekend. Enfield is about halfway if we choose 95 to 91 Would love to be closer to the Mountains from November- April

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38 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Unsurprisingly the changes in that northern stream are driving the wild run to run swings of varying individual pieces of guidance.

Yeah the southern stream seems pretty constant on most guidance. Smaller differences. The northern stream though is swinging wildly. Not surprising given the source region. That shortwave is probably sitting over wrangel island or Siberia somewhere right now with sparse data network. 

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