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November Banter 2019


George BM
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4 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

Happy Thanksgiving

Terrible trends on the models for snow down here. Basically zilch. You know its bad when it barely even shows backend snow here. Congrats NE. Wasted a good pattern only for it to snow way north inland but that's just climo

Shut up.

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone else!

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

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Trying to learn to interpret patterns at 500 hp. I see a trough in the east, but heights are simply normal.  Mildly AN heights in Greenland, but higher heights to the South.  So NAO slightly positive.  AO ambiguous but at least not strongly positive.  +PNA right?

Overall what is the sensible weather expected in the Eastern CONUS?

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1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

Trying to learn to interpret patterns at 500 hp. I see a trough in the east, but heights are simply normal.  Mildly AN heights in Greenland, but higher heights to the South.  So NAO slightly positive.  AO ambiguous but at least not strongly positive.  +PNA right?

Overall what is the sensible weather expected in the Eastern CONUS?

Keep it simple and just look at the height pattern itself. Majority of ens members see an Aleutian trough, +pna ridge and trough in the east. Some hints of a -AO as well. Just envision how that general pattern translates to sensible wx in the east. Decent right?

Long lead mean patterns are very smooth and rounded due to large spread. Weather itself never looks all smooth and rounded so use ens mean panels in a very general sense and not verbatim. 

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