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November Banter 2019


George BM
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Didn't obviously want to post this in the long range thread pertaining to here, but some crazy numbers I was able to pull up via deterministic and ensembles from models for our area.

Our average hi/lo for Tuesday next week is 68/40. This is the time frame post front (Monday afternoon/evening FROPA). Current 850 temp progs on guidance are anywhere from 18 to 28C BELOW NORMAL for the time of year. MOS guidance on both the Euro and GFS are running around 24 for a low Tuesday morning with a high barely breaking 40 degrees, which is astonishing at long leads. This sets a total departure potential of -15 to 20F for the low and -25 to 30F for the high. This time of year is uncommon to see these kinds of temperatures impact the area, and especially these numbers at leads. Given the antecedent conditions over western Canada and the Hysplit motioning the air parcels over already ice/snow covered ground, the potential for record breaking cold is increasing with each passing day. Considering model changes for the H85 temps have actually chilled on today's runs, it's very likely this will be one of the colder early season spells in sometime east of the Rockies. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t850_anom_stream-3538400.thumb.png.175dab5f46e34a6ee4e2581f7b0f7ae9.png

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2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Why in the world are people at work asking me about the potential for delays tomorrow due to snow? What in the world is out there on social media about tonight?

The Adapt 2030 people are working hard for a living. We will be adapting ... just in the other direction.

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