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November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The most impressive feature in the forecasts going forward will be the pressure gradient along the East Coast. This could  be one of the tightest pressure gradients of 2019. The Euro generates hurricane force wind gusts off the Carolinas this weekend.

 

@bluewave as some have alluded to,  including DT in a indirect manner, when we have these Fall coastal storms it may be a good sign for the upcoming winter. 

My question is when there is such an event as portrayed here can it cause atmospheric eddies, or atmospheric memory that may cause other low pressure areas to drop into this area further down the road in December or even Jan.   

Or, on the flip side, maybe this system feeds off the one area of still warm SSTs,  and  that ocean fuel is used up after this event.  I imagine there are multiple ways to look at this. Always appreciate your insights. 

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4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not a good situation for the OBX. They are in bad shape from this past hurricane season. I would expect some wash overs and damage with the that kind of fetch. Looks like the swell is directed away from us though 

The latest 00z models are in better
agreement with the placement and strength of this coastal storm
compared to 24 hrs ago. Confidence increased with the significant
impacts ENC will receive from this storm, especially along the Outer
Banks. The area will start feeling the impacts Friday night, peaking
Saturday, and gradually subsiding Sunday night. The impacts include
rain, strong gusty winds, ocean overwash and beach erosion north of
Cape Hatteras, and sound-side coastal flooding for the southern-half
of the Pamlico Sound.

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59 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Was looking at that yesterday on gfs. Said to myself that looks like some pretty windy conditions on the outer banks

 

49 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not a good situation for the OBX. They are in bad shape from this past hurricane season. I would expect some wash overs and damage with the that kind of fetch. Looks like the swell is directed away from us though 

Yeah, more coastal flooding and beach erosion looks possible for that part of the coast. Not what they wanted to see following Dorian in September and Florence last year.

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49 minutes ago, frd said:

@bluewave as some have alluded to,  including DT in a indirect manner, when we have these Fall coastal storms it may be a good sign for the upcoming winter. 

My question is when there is such an event as portrayed here can it cause atmospheric eddies, or atmospheric memory that may cause other low pressure areas to drop into this area further down the road in December or even Jan.   

Or, on the flip side, maybe this system feeds off the one area of still warm SSTs,  and  that ocean fuel is used up after this event.  I imagine there are multiple ways to look at this. Always appreciate your insights. 

Maybe it can reinforce the North Atlantic blocking through a series of wave breaking events going into late November. Then we have to wait and see if the North Atlantic blocking can persist into December for a change. I am sure the weather forum community would like to see the December record + NAO streak that began in 2011 ease up.

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28 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the ao/nao forecasts are looking great today...They probably will change tomorrow but it is on a very good trend...

Pna is also going positive 

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9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

NAO, PNA and AO looks great moving forward.  December might be a really nice month for snow lovers.

I'm not falling for this trick again. All signs show December being mostly mild however there's a window early on for some action.

The cold air does look pretty depleted though as we lose the -EPO despite the favorable coastal pattern.

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3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not falling for this trick again. All signs show December being mostly mild however there's a window early on for some action.

The cold air does look pretty depleted though as we lose the -EPO despite the favorable coastal pattern.

What signs ? Alot of signs are looking good for December.

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3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

What signs ? Alot of signs are looking good for December.

S88 - (SS14 + 15) divided by 3 = ‘Tis the season’. As always .......

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25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I'm not falling for this trick again. All signs show December being mostly mild however there's a window early on for some action.

The cold air does look pretty depleted though as we lose the -EPO despite the favorable coastal pattern.

I could see it being like a December 02 maybe...not necessarily snow wise but temp wise that at least is respectable and averages near normal.  I don't think we will see a torch pattern or SE ridge though some forecasts have inexplicably (in my mind anyway) gone  with a pronounced SER in December

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3 hours ago, uncle W said:

2010's have three snowstorms and numerous record lows in November...the last decade that had many record lows and snowstorms was back in the 1930's...

Yeah, November is our only month during the 2010’s with more record lows than highs. I used Newark since NYC would have had many more record highs if the thermometer was still on the castle instead of under the trees after the move around 1996. 
 

Newark ...daily record highs....daily record lows

Jan....5...4

Feb....6...4

Mar...5...3

Apr...4....0

May..5...1

Jun...7...0

Jul...10...0

Aug...1....0

Sep...8....1

Oct...5....1

Nov..2....7

Dec..6....0

total...64...21

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2 hours ago, frd said:

@bluewave as some have alluded to,  including DT in a indirect manner, when we have these Fall coastal storms it may be a good sign for the upcoming winter. 

My question is when there is such an event as portrayed here can it cause atmospheric eddies, or atmospheric memory that may cause other low pressure areas to drop into this area further down the road in December or even Jan.   

Or, on the flip side, maybe this system feeds off the one area of still warm SSTs,  and  that ocean fuel is used up after this event.  I imagine there are multiple ways to look at this. Always appreciate your insights. 

Our saving grace for keeping that monster thermo gradient ever present is the Gulf Stream. It’s constantly brings in a fresh supply of ultra warm water from the western Caribbean which is out of reach of these record arctic intrusions. If we see the predominant low track switch to the coast this winter it’s game on. Based on pro forecasts I would take a blend of last years cutter/inland runner tracks and offshore tracks. Kind of a feast and famine winter with one or potentially two cold and snow periods during the heart of the winter. When exactly the stars align is impossible to predict

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years with temperatures 24 or lower up till Nov. 14th...

year......................winter temp...snowfall...lowest min...

1879..23 on 11/5.....38.5...………...22.7"...……...7

2019..23 on 11/13...…………………………………………….

1976..24 on 11/9......28.5...………..24.5"...……..-2

2017..24 on 11/11....36.2...………..40.9"...……...5

1986..22 on 11/14....34.8...………..23.1"...……...4

1920..25 on 11/13....34.9...………..18.6"...……...4

1905..20 on 11/14....36.7...………..20.0"...……...7

 

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Beautiful sea smoke display today at Pensacola Beach. Record low of 29 at Pensacola going over the warm Gulf.

 

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About a  -5 degree departure so far this month... Just 0.22" of precip this month with not much showing up on the 12z guidance over the next week to 10 days...We'll see if that changes in the coming days.

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31 minutes ago, doncat said:

About a  -5 degree departure so far this month... Just 0.22" of precip this month with not much showing up on the 12z guidance over the next week to 10 days...We'll see if that changes in the coming days.

Cold and dry is the big story this month with the strong -EPO suppression. It’s a flip from the warm and wet in October and the warm and dry in September. 

5F9F6FFD-27B4-4A01-A76F-A96B734C7BB5.gif.173addc2a29153cbfa533457d7baa9fa.gif

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10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Cold and dry is the big story this month with the strong -EPO suppression. It’s a flip from the warm and wet in October and the warm and dry in September. 

5F9F6FFD-27B4-4A01-A76F-A96B734C7BB5.gif.173addc2a29153cbfa533457d7baa9fa.gif

Warm and dry, followed by warm and wet followed by cold and dry.... Now it is cold and wet's turn.  :)

Kidding aside, pattern evolution should prove interesting to watch over the next month with no clear signal yet if I am correct with mixed forecasts out there.  

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EURO really has three different Atlantic coast lows over the next 10 days.

Let's see if we get any piece of the action.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, November is our only month during the 2010’s with more record lows than highs. I used Newark since NYC would have had many more record highs if the thermometer was still on the castle instead of under the trees after the move around 1996. 
 

Newark ...daily record highs....daily record lows

Jan....5...4

Feb....6...4

Mar...5...3

Apr...4....0

May..5...1

Jun...7...0

Jul...10...0

Aug...1....0

Sep...8....1

Oct...5....1

Nov..2....7

Dec..6....0

total...64...21

the move that happened because people were stealing their stuff? why not just put a fence around the castle....

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6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Not a good situation for the OBX. They are in bad shape from this past hurricane season. I would expect some wash overs and damage with the that kind of fetch. Looks like the swell is directed away from us though 

whats keeping those winds from hitting us though?

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Maybe it can reinforce the North Atlantic blocking through a series of wave breaking events going into late November. Then we have to wait and see if the North Atlantic blocking can persist into December for a change. I am sure the weather forum community would like to see the December record + NAO streak that began in 2011 ease up.

Based on what we've been seeing the last few years and how this season has started, it's reasonable to assume this will be a backloaded winter, with the majority of the snow in February and March.  Maybe something minor in December to whet the appetite?

 

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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

whats keeping those winds from hitting us though?

The big H to our north.

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Ensembles (GEFS + EPS) are warming up to the -NAO idea. Looks like there's potential for a split flow out west and quite possibly a legit -NAO along with it as we get towards the end of the month. Good times. I can't help but see these developments as positives as we move forward. 

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18 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Ensembles (GEFS + EPS) are warming up to the -NAO idea. Looks like there's potential for a split flow out west and quite possibly a legit -NAO along with it as we get towards the end of the month. Good times. I can't help but see these developments as positives as we move forward. 

Dec -NAO (specifically late Dec -NAO) has a nice correlation to winter time predominant -NAO.

Dont know about late November, I thought most of the forecasts were for a warming trend for the end of the month and the beginning of December?

 

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11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Dec -NAO (specifically late Dec -NAO) has a nice correlation to winter time predominant -NAO.

Dont know about late November, I thought most of the forecasts were for a warming trend for the end of the month and the beginning of December?

 

Warming trend cancel?

 

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