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Rtd208

November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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However much it snows this is going to be a seriously impressive and early taste of winter.  Mount Holly AFD indicating 10-15F wind chills in the metro area.

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22 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

No dude it’s 2-3 and some northern spots get 4. The snow comes in after a brief rain shower another couple of hours of a slow down and this is all snow for the coast!

No

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3 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

25 here.  The Sound is still very warm.

Some arctic sea smoke earlier today on parts of the Sound.

 

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Seems like no one is tracking on here

that's b/c it's likely to end up as a regular cold front passage with some rain and maybe a few flakes on the backend.  The 18z's are less bullish already....

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Despite mainly sunny skies, temperatures remained mainly in the upper 30s this afternoon in the New York Botanical Garden. In addition, the unseasonable cold brought down all the leaves of the Garden’s Ginkgo biloba trees before the leaves had turned a brilliant yellow.

Some photos from around the Garden’s Lillian Goldman Fountain of Life, which was completed in 1905 by sculptor Charles Tefft.

NYBG-LG-Fountainof-Life11092019-1.jpg

NYBG-LG-Fountainof-Life11092019-8.jpg

NYBG-LG-Fountainof-Life11092019-3.jpg

NYBG-LG-Fountainof-Life11092019-5.jpg

NYBG-LG-Fountainof-Life11092019-10.jpg

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This morning saw the coldest temperatures this season so far. Readings included:

Albany: 18°
Allentown: 20°
Atlantic City: 21°
Baltimore: 24° (old record: 25°, 1967, 1976, and 2003)
Binghamton: 16°
Boston: 28°
Bridgeport: 22° (tied daily record set in 1971)
Danbury: 15° (tied daily record set in 1992)
Harrisburg: 24°
Hartford: 20°
Islip: 23° (tied daily record set in 1992)
New Haven: 23°
New York City: 27°
Newark: 25°
Philadelphia: 25°
Poughkeepsie: 17°
Providence: 22°
Scranton: 19°
Sterling, VA: 21°
Washington, DC: 30°
Westhampton: 14° (old record: 19°, 2003)
White Plains: 20°

Just before midnight, New York City's Central Park tied the November 8 record low temperature of 29°, which was set in 1886.

Tonight will be warmer than last night and readings could the 50s in parts of the region tomorrow and especially Monday. However, even colder air mass than the current one will likely arrive later Tuesday.

Following the frontal passage that brings in that cold shot, New York City could see one or two low temperatures in the lower or middle 20s. The minimum temperature Wednesday morning could challenge the Central Park daily record low temperature of 24°, which was set in 1986.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was -11.01 today.

An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.428.

Some of the more recent guidance shows the AO remaining strongly negative through the next two weeks. Such an outcome would increase prospects for at least some additional bouts of cold in the East after mid-month.

On November 8, the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.539 (RMM). The November 7-adjusted amplitude was 2.727.

The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal.

Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to generally warmer than normal conditions, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region.

80% of the cases that saw New York City record a mean temperature below 46.0° during the first half of November went on to see 20" or more seasonal snowfall. Almost one quarter of such winters saw 40" or more snow. This data would suggest 20"-30" seasonal snowfall for the New York City area absent other variables (some of which could increase or reduce such amounts).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 76% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

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3 minutes ago, Maureen said:

That means a lot coming from you!  Some true Winter Wonderland scenes. 

Thanks Maureen. It was very scenic. Have a great time in Manchester.

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4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Seems like no one is tracking on here

Probably because the long range NAM is the only model showing accumulating snow for NYC. I think white rain is possible at the end but thats about it with this one until you get well inland at least at it stands now

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Despite mainly sunny skies, temperatures remained mainly in the upper 30s this afternoon in the New York Botanical Garden. In addition, the unseasonable cold brought down all the leaves of the Garden’s Ginkgo biloba trees before the leaves had turned a brilliant yellow.

Some photos from around the Garden’s Lillian Goldman Fountain of Life, which was completed in 1905 by sculptor Charles Tefft.

NYBG-LG-Fountainof-Life11092019-1.jpg

NYBG-LG-Fountainof-Life11092019-8.jpg

NYBG-LG-Fountainof-Life11092019-3.jpg

NYBG-LG-Fountainof-Life11092019-5.jpg

NYBG-LG-Fountainof-Life11092019-10.jpg

I noticed what you mentioned about those trees having a mass leaf drop as green leaves. The type of tree you mentioned seems to be especially sensitive to freezing temps. Many other trees still green didnt suddenly drop their leaves overnight.  I remember last yr the same thing happened b/c I parked under one and my car was completely covered in green leaves.

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48 minutes ago, dWave said:

I noticed what you mentioned about those trees having a mass leaf drop as green leaves. The type of tree you mentioned seems to be especially sensitive to freezing temps. Many other trees still green didnt suddenly drop their leaves overnight.  I remember last yr the same thing happened b/c I parked under one and my car was completely covered in green leaves.

Yes. Those trees seem very sensitive to the cold. Below is a photo I took of the tree I mentioned back on November 20, 2010:

Ginkgo-NYBG.jpg

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Saw that phenomenon in progress this morning in NYC Central Park , where there are lots of Ginkos.

In still air, their leaves were just showering down, so by the afternoon, the trees were almost bare, with the leaves carpeting the ground right under the trees.

It was very pretty in the afternoon sun, the green and gold leaves encircling the tree trunks.

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1 hour ago, dWave said:

I noticed what you mentioned about those trees having a mass leaf drop as green leaves. The type of tree you mentioned seems to be especially sensitive to freezing temps. Many other trees still green didnt suddenly drop their leaves overnight.  I remember last yr the same thing happened b/c I parked under one and my car was completely covered in green leaves.

That’s so funny.  I witnessed this very thing this morning.  It was a huckleberry tree outside my kitchen.  The leaves were completely green and full when I saw them coming down about 8am.  Now wind, no other leaves falling.  I noticed it happening and was intrigued as I had never seen it before.  Took about 2 hours for the entire tree to be bare.

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1 hour ago, etudiant said:

Saw that phenomenon in progress this morning in NYC Central Park , where there are lots of Ginkos.

In still air, their leaves were just showering down, so by the afternoon, the trees were almost bare, with the leaves carpeting the ground right under the trees.

It was very pretty in the afternoon sun, the green and gold leaves encircling the tree trunks.

Ginkos tend to drop leaves faster then any other species once the change color regardless of a hard freeze. My tulip tree did the same thing earlier today as well, just dropped the rest of it’s Leaves despite no wind. Tuesday night/Wednesday anything that survived last night is toast.
 

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1 hour ago, etudiant said:

Saw that phenomenon in progress this morning in NYC Central Park , where there are lots of Ginkos.

In still air, their leaves were just showering down, so by the afternoon, the trees were almost bare, with the leaves carpeting the ground right under the trees.

It was very pretty in the afternoon sun, the green and gold leaves encircling the tree trunks.

I have a fully green Ginkgo directly in front of my house. Temp only got down to 29 here last night. Leaves still on the tree. Last year it was green but we had a freeze with temps in the mid 20s and all the green leaves came down over the next day or so. Guess it wasn’t quite cold enough here. Maybe Tue night gets it done this upcoming week.

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Next 8 days are averaging 40degs., or about 7degs. BN.

Month to date is  -4.0[47.0].         Should be near  -5.4[43.7] by the 18th.

Yesterday the T scooted up to 44* here by 4pm.      I should be there by 9am. today.

EURO is 1" of Snow and GFS is 0" on the 13th.

42* here at 6am.     44* by 8:30am.    47* by 11am.     51* by 1pm.     52* at 2pm.

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If you are hoping for snow in December then you won't like Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter. He is basically thinking the colder air remains up in Canada from around November 19th thru the 3rd week of December. It also doesn't sound like things will be very active either. A repeat of last winter incoming?

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3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

If you are hoping for snow in December then you won't like Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter. He is basically thinking the colder air remains up in Canada from around November 19th thru the 3rd week of December. It also doesn't sound like things will be very active either. A repeat of last winter incoming?

Way too early to say what's going to happen through December. Remember all the great winter outlooks last winter ? How did they turn out ?

Long  range is a crapshoot

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8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Way too early to say what's going to happen through December. Remember all the great winter outlooks last winter ? How did they turn out ?

Long  range is a crapshoot

Yeah well here is the thing, Larry Cosgrove's winter outlook from last year wasn't so great, meaning he went against most outlooks calling for much above normal snow and cold temps and wound up being right. Just something to keep in mind.

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That's the very beginning stages of a -NAO at the end of the ensembles. Both eps and gefs are showing it. Plus, the precursor pattern for it is being advertised before hand as well. Let's get that going in time for December for a change. 

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The interesting thing is how strong the Aleutian low is getting. While we are technically ENSO neutral, the November 500 mb pattern is close to 2002. That was one if the fewEl Niño  -NAO Decembers in the last 30 years. So it will be interesting to see if we can push back against the mild December pattern since 2011.

Yeah, the Aleutian low is where my eyes have been glued since the beginning of the month. It's really good to see since the favorable winter composites have that feature during November. It's not everything, no, but it's much better to have it then not. I think the +IOD could be beneficial this year. Because it acts to suppress tropical convection around Indonesia. Which is the warm phases of the MJO. That was a real problem area last year, as you know. Being so strong this year I wonder if the effects linger through at least a part of the winter. It's really a fascinating year, and I still like what I'm seeing. 

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21 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, the Aleutian low is where my eyes have been glued since the beginning of the month. It's really good to see since the favorable winter composites have that feature during November. It's not everything, no, but it's much better to have it then not. I think the +IOD could be beneficial this year. Because it acts to suppress tropical convection around Indonesia. Which is the warm phases of the MJO. That was a real problem area last year, as you know. Being so strong this year I wonder if the effects linger through at least a part of the winter. It's really a fascinating year, and I still like what I'm seeing. 

Yeah, a strong Aleutian low in November is typically found with El Niños.This time we have the much intense -EPO blocking of recent Novembers combined with it. So maybe the atmosphere will follow an El Niño progression this year. But the wild card is what the NAO does in December. The default El Niño December is mild for us. So -NAO is required for colder and snowier outcomes like 2002.The NAO has been in a positive state in December since 2011. 

5725339A-A522-4372-AF57-3E72BB0BA4A0.png.5f6426cccc3bd2f89c94ff6dbaa82548.png

 

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I know everyone hates these but they haven’t showed any snow so far this year and finally they pop up with a couple of inches this latest run! SREF

76588438-F252-4AAB-A1C5-7A9802834C2D.png

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