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November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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12 hours ago, bluewave said:

There are probably 2 things that we need to get a colder and snowier December for a change. A -NAO with the MJO avoiding the Maritime Continent. Unfortunately, the models don’t do very well beyond 10 days with the NAO. The one exception seems to be with major start warming events like we saw during the last 2 springs. The MJO looks like it’s giving a strong IO signal longer range with the near record +IOD pattern. FWIW, the JMA continues this pattern for December. That being said, these long range forecasts can change pretty quickly over a few weeks.

 

Just happened to come across a BOM update from a couple of days ago on the IOD. They expect lingering influence into January. It will be interesting to see what happens with that. 

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/tropical-note/

"The decay of the IOD is associated with the seasonal development of a monsoon trough in the southern hemisphere around December, but this process is well behind its typical schedule and is likely to happen significantly later than usual in 2019. As a result, the influence of the IOD is expected to persist into January 2020."

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

Today could be one of the driest days that we have seen this time of year on a NE wind. The relative humidity is already down to 30% with dewpoints falling to near 0. The NWS even put out a special statement. This is essentially an Arctic backdoor with the temperatures modifying due to the  NE flow. But the dryness remains.


East Hampton   FAIR      32   5  32 NE12G21 

Willimantic    FAIR      27  -1  30 N8   

There will be an enhanced risk of fire spread today with gusty
winds and low relative humidity. Winds will be out of the north to
northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts mainly between 20 and 30
mph. Relative humidity is expected to lower to around 15 to 25
percent.

 

29B913B1-BC4F-44BF-9207-06AC75B04A98.thumb.png.3509b8af2580b1ae73bd5f452aa16321.png

Very impressive, those who went calm last night really had impressive cold.

 Lake placid -9 was that a record?

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Currently, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the dominant driver of the Northern Hemisphere's synoptic pattern. In part, this is why the East has been cold despite the NAO's being positive for 13/16 days this month.

To date, it has averaged approximately -1.06 for November. It is likely to fall further before commencing a rise toward neutral near the end of the month.

Such an outcome favors cold in the eastern third to half of the CONUS. Thus, the guidance, including the EPS and CFSv2 weeklies, has turned toward a cooler outlook for much of the remaining second half of November. The neutral EPO has reduced prospects of severe cold and the current Arctic air mass that grazed the region might be the last such outbreak for awhile.

Composite Temperature Anomalies for an AO ranging from -2.00 to -1.00 (November 16-30, 1981-2018):

Nov-16-30-1981-2018-AO.jpg

In the extended range, the AO is forecast to go neutral and then possibly positive.

AO Forecast (GEFS):

AO11162019.jpg

Should that forecast verify, the cold pattern will likely break down unless the EPO or some other variable attains greater influence over the synoptic pattern than is currently the case (with perhaps a modest lag). For now, the AO is the key driver.

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29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Currently, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is the dominant driver of the Northern Hemisphere's synoptic pattern. In part, this is why the East has been cold despite the NAO's being positive for 13/16 days this month.

To date, it has averaged approximately -1.06 for November. It is likely to fall further before commencing a rise toward neutral near the end of the month.

Such an outcome favors cold in the eastern third to half of the CONUS. Thus, the guidance, including the EPS and CFSv2 weeklies, has turned toward a cooler outlook for much of the remaining second half of November. The neutral EPO has reduced prospects of severe cold and the current Arctic air mass that grazed the region might be the last such outbreak for awhile.

Composite Temperature Anomalies for an AO ranging from -2.00 to -1.00 (November 16-30, 1981-2018):

Nov-16-30-1981-2018-AO.jpg

In the extended range, the AO is forecast to go neutral and then possibly positive.

AO Forecast (GEFS):

AO11162019.jpg

Should that forecast verify, the cold pattern will likely break down unless the EPO or some other variable attains greater influence over the synoptic pattern than is currently the case (with perhaps a modest lag). For now, the AO is the key driver.

one lonely member stays quite negative...some members are dipping at the end of the period...yesterdays forecast looked better and the day before wasn't as good...I would not be surprised if tomorrows forecast shows more negative values...I do think a relaxation in the neg ao comes sometime in Dec and hopefully its during the beginning of the month...

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I looked at the coldest Novembers in NYC since 1823 and came up with this list...mild and cold are based on the averages from around those years...

year...……..Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb...March...

1823-24...cold...norm...mild...norm...cold...

1827-28...cold...norm...mild...mild....mild...

1833-34...cold...norm...cold...mild...norm...

1834-35...cold...cold....cold...cold....cold...

1836-37...cold...cold....cold...cold....cold

1838-39...cold...cold...norm...norm...norm

1839-40...cold...mild...cold....mild....mild...

1842-43...cold...cold....mild...cold....cold

1843-44...cold...mild....cold...cold....mild

1848-49...cold...mild....cold...cold....norm

1851-52...cold...mild....cold...norm...cold...

1856-57...cold...mild....cold....mild...cold

1857-58...cold...mild....mild....cold...cold

1858-59...cold...cold...cold....mild....mild

1871-72...cold...cold....cold...cold....cold

1872-73...cold...cold...cold....cold....cold

1873-74...cold...mild....mild...norm...norm

1875-76...cold...norm...mild...norm...cold

1880-81...cold....cold....cold...cold....cold

1882-83...cold....cold....cold...cold....cold

1887-88...cold...norm...cold...cold....cold

1894-95...cold...mild.....cold...cold....cold

1901-02...cold...norm...cold....cold...mild

1910-11...cold...cold....mild...norm...cold

1917-18...cold...cold....cold....cold....mild

1925-26...cold...norm...norm...cold...cold

1933-34...cold...cold....mild....cold....cold

1936-37...cold...mild....mild....mild....cold

1951-52...cold...mild....mild....mild....norm

1955-56...cold...cold...norm...mild....cold

1959-60...cold...mild....norm...mild...cold

1962-63...cold...cold....cold....cold....mild

1967-68...cold...mild....cold....cold....mild

1971-72...cold...mild....mild...norm...cold

1972-73...cold...mild....mild...norm...mild

1976-77...cold...cold....cold...norm...mild

1980-81...cold...cold....cold...mild....norm

1986-87...cold...mild...norm...norm...mild

1989-90...cold...cold....mild....mild....mild

1995-96...cold...cold....cold....cold....cold

1996-97...cold...mild...norm...mild...norm

1997-98...cold...mild....mild....mild....mild

2000-01...cold...cold....mild....mild....cold

2007-08...cold...mild....mild....mild....norm

2008-09...cold...mild....cold....mild....norm

2012-13...cold...mild....mild....norm....cold

2013-14...cold...mild....cold....cold....cold

2014-15...cold...mild....cold....cold....cold

2018-19...cold...mild...norm...mild...norm

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7 minutes ago, uncle W said:

one lonely member stays quite negative...some members are dipping at the end of the period...yesterdays forecast looked better and the day before wasn't as good...I would not be surprised if tomorrows forecast shows more negative values...I do think a relaxation in the neg ao comes sometime in Dec and hopefully its during the beginning of the month...

Are you still liking the possibility of snow near Christmas?  Some of your analogs were very interesting.    

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Just now, uncle W said:

I'll be on that train until I see a brick wall ahead...

 

Did you mention as well we see a break then in Jan and Feb with March be snowy?  ( Or was that just pertaining to a analog year you were referencing ? 

Sorry, I read all your posts,  but there are so many great ones with various analogs I get a bit confused.  :-) 

 

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Did you mention as well we see a break then in Jan and Feb with March be snowy?  ( Or was that just pertaining to a analog year you were referencing ? 

Sorry, I read all your posts,  but there are so many great ones with various analogs I get a bit confused.  :-) 

 

it was pertaining to one specific analog but some of the others have lulls in the action...

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1 minute ago, uncle W said:

back in September 1966 a meteorologist who was working for CBS2 in NYC predicted a white Christmas for NYC..I think his name was Harry Geise? (spelling) ...it was either a great guess or a great forecast...

My mom, when she was alive,  would always talk about that snowstorm.  I believe she mentioned thunder and lightening with it. We were on our way to Christmas eve services.   

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An Arctic air mass passed across northern New England today, only grazing parts of the region. Caribou had a low temperature of 8° this morning, which broke the previous daily mark of 10° from 1985. In contrast, Newark had a low temperature of 32°. 

The strong coastal storm that will lash the Carolinas tonight and tomorrow will pass sufficiently far offshore to avoid bringing much of the region significant rainfall. Most of the region, with perhaps the exception of parts of Suffolk County and New Haven County eastward will likely pick up less than 0.50" rain. Gusty winds are likely Sunday and Monday. Some coastal flooding is likely at times of high tide. 

Miami's near-record streak of 225 consecutive 80° days, which began on April 5, ended today as the mercury topped out at 78°. That was just below the record of 227 consecutive days, which was set from March 31, 1994 through November 12, 1994. 

In northern Alaska, Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow) remained on track for its warmest autumn on record. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, Utqiagvik is on course for an autumn mean temperature 26.6°-27.4°. The record is 26.0°, which was set in 2016. 

In terms of global temperatures, the October GISS data is now in. Despite parts of the Northern Rockies experiencing the coldest October on record, October 2019 ranked as the second warmest October on record with a +1.04°C anomaly. Only 2015 with a +1.09°C anomaly was warmer. As a result, 2019 has a year-to-date anomaly of +0.97°C, which is the second warmest at this point in time. 2019 remains on course to be the second warmest year on record on that dataset. That last time a two-month period was cool enough to avoid such an outcome was June-July 2014 with a +0.63°C anomaly. The last time November-December was cool enough was in 2012 with a +0.66°C anomaly. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.5°C for the week centered around November 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20. 

The SOI was +1.84 today.  

An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal. 

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.189.  

The guidance continues to show the AO remaining negative to strongly negative into late November. With the AO having become the dominant element shaping the Hemispheric 500 mb pattern, the base case is now a widespread cool anomaly (perhaps 1°-2° below normal). A pattern evolution toward a milder regime still appears likely to develop near the start of December as the AO is forecast to rise toward and then above neutral values. Should the current negative AO regime persist, such moderation would likely be delayed. 

Through November 16, the AO has averaged -1.059. Since 1950, 60% of cases that saw the November AO average -1.500 to -1.000 saw a December AO average below 0. Since 1950, 50% of November cases with an average AO of -.999 to -0.500 saw the AO average below 0 in December. In short, at present there is no clear signal regarding the possible predominant AO state for December. 

On November 15, the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 1.278 (RMM). The November 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.860.  

The recent MJO tendencies suggest that December could wind up at least somewhat warmer than normal overall. The MJO had spent three days in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. Since 1974, five years saw the MJO in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or higher for two or more days during the 1974-2018 period: 1985, 1987, 1996, 1998, and 2018. Only 1985 with a mean temperature of 34.2° was colder than normal during December.  

It also spent three days in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above. All five years (1986, 1990, 1996, 1999, and 2016) that saw the MJO in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the November 10-20 period went on to record a warmer than normal December. The recent record cold outbreak (11/12-13) coincided closely with the timing of a similar magnitude Arctic outbreak in 1986 (11/13-14). The December 1986 mean temperature in New York City was 39.0°. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 90% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

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5 hours ago, uncle W said:

I looked at the coldest Novembers in NYC since 1823 and came up with this list...mild and cold are based on the averages from around those years...

year...……..Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb...March...

1823-24...cold...norm...mild...norm...cold...

1827-28...cold...norm...mild...mild....mild...

1833-34...cold...norm...cold...mild...norm...

1834-35...cold...cold....cold...cold....cold...

1836-37...cold...cold....cold...cold....cold

1838-39...cold...cold...norm...norm...norm

1839-40...cold...mild...cold....mild....mild...

1842-43...cold...cold....mild...cold....cold

1843-44...cold...mild....cold...cold....mild

1848-49...cold...mild....cold...cold....norm

1851-52...cold...mild....cold...norm...cold...

1856-57...cold...mild....cold....mild...cold

1857-58...cold...mild....mild....cold...cold

1858-59...cold...cold...cold....mild....mild

1871-72...cold...cold....cold...cold....cold

1872-73...cold...cold...cold....cold....cold

1873-74...cold...mild....mild...norm...norm

1875-76...cold...norm...mild...norm...cold

1880-81...cold....cold....cold...cold....cold

1882-83...cold....cold....cold...cold....cold

1887-88...cold...norm...cold...cold....cold

1894-95...cold...mild.....cold...cold....cold

1901-02...cold...norm...cold....cold...mild

1910-11...cold...cold....mild...norm...cold

1917-18...cold...cold....cold....cold....mild

1925-26...cold...norm...norm...cold...cold

1933-34...cold...cold....mild....cold....cold

1936-37...cold...mild....mild....mild....cold

1951-52...cold...mild....mild....mild....norm

1955-56...cold...cold...norm...mild....cold

1959-60...cold...mild....norm...mild...cold

1962-63...cold...cold....cold....cold....mild

1967-68...cold...mild....cold....cold....mild

1971-72...cold...mild....mild...norm...cold

1972-73...cold...mild....mild...norm...mild

1976-77...cold...cold....cold...norm...mild

1980-81...cold...cold....cold...mild....norm

1986-87...cold...mild...norm...norm...mild

1989-90...cold...cold....mild....mild....mild

1995-96...cold...cold....cold....cold....cold

1996-97...cold...mild...norm...mild...norm

1997-98...cold...mild....mild....mild....mild

2000-01...cold...cold....mild....mild....cold

2007-08...cold...mild....mild....mild....norm

2008-09...cold...mild....cold....mild....norm

2012-13...cold...mild....mild....norm....cold

2013-14...cold...mild....cold....cold....cold

2014-15...cold...mild....cold....cold....cold

2018-19...cold...mild...norm...mild...norm

It's as if there's an inverse relationship between November temperatures compared to December temperatures over the past 25 years, especially considering that two noteworthy cold Dec/January winters (93/94 and 2010/2011) aren't listed and therefore apparently did not have cold Novembers.

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On 11/15/2019 at 11:50 AM, Snow88 said:

Models are starting to get in agreement on high latitude blocking taking shape at the end of this month. Can  it change? Of course but the pattern is looking good moving forward.

 

The cold keeps reloading on the gfs. Very nice pattern  with a storm threat next weekend.

Yes, I already see that there's another cold shot scheduled for next weekend and milder temps are now pushed back until Thanksgiving?

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On 11/15/2019 at 11:19 AM, bluewave said:

It may not make much of a difference for us if the AMO goes more negative in the future. The waters of the NW Atlantic have seen some of fastest rates of increase. Perhaps a combination of the upward global SST trend and the slowing AMOC. So we get the persistent cool pool south of Greenland and warm SST’s off the East Coast. This effect could mute any influence on our weather of a more -AMO. The 1980’s were a much colder SST and global climate era.

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/05/amoc-slowdown-connecting-the-dots/

Have you seen the research that came out recently showing that the gulf stream is warming more rapidly than the rest of the Atlantic?  Does this mean more rapidly bombing coastal storms and higher precip totals?  I think we're already seeing this.

 

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5 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

It's as if there's an inverse relationship between November temperatures compared to December temperatures over the past 25 years, especially considering that two noteworthy cold Dec/January winters (93/94 and 2010/2011) aren't listed and therefore apparently did not have cold Novembers.

lol@ 1995-96, that looks like the only winter since the turn of the century where all of the months were cold.  Might be the last one we see in our lifetimes like that too.

In the other 6 times that happened (all in the 1800s), it happened in pairs of 2 seasons each- interesting!

 

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Next 8 days are averaging 45degs., or just about Normal.

Month to date is  -5.8[44.3].          Should be near  -3.9[44.5] by the 25th.

32* here at 6am.    34* at 7am.    35* at 8am.    37* at 9am.     41* by 11am.     43* by 1pm.

SREF Plumes down to 0.30" Rain late today into Monday.     Two days ago it had 1", starting this PM.       Coastal has consolidated near 31.3N  75.4W, this AM---a little se. from yesterday at this time. 

Rest of month still a winterwise bore(sans TGD?).

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