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November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I love how this board hyped up 2 snowstorms for the whole month: one rain; one flurries

 

Gonna be a long winter on here...and not because or the weather! :)

people latch onto models outside their range.   The solutions shown 3-4 days ago are nothing like what will actually verify-a cold frontal passage with some rain showers that may end with a mangled flake or two.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.png

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20 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Flurries would be a win =)

Picking up at least a T by November 15th has been common this decade.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Nov 15
Missing Count
1 2018-11-15 6.4 0
2 2017-11-15 T 0
3 2016-11-15 0.0 0
- 2015-11-15 0.0 0
5 2014-11-15 T 0
- 2013-11-15 T 0
7 2012-11-15 6.2 0
8 2011-11-15 5.2 0
9 2010-11-15 T 0

 

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8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

there's barely .10 of QPF (which is mainly rain)   it's going to be near 60 today would be hard for anything to stick with light rates....

It's  certainly possible if the cold air comes rushing in with a few hours  to go. Flash freezes can cause some accumulations but I'm not expecting anything here. I do think everyone will see a change to snow .

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Just now, Snow88 said:

It's  certainly possible if the cold air comes rushing in with a few hours  to go. Flash freezes can cause some accumulations but I'm not expecting anything here. I do think everyone will see a change to snow .

But none of the models show NYC getting an inch. Be realistic or this is going to be a painfully long winter. 

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's  certainly possible if the cold air comes rushing in with a few hours  to go. Flash freezes can cause some accumulations but I'm not expecting anything here. I do think everyone will see a change to snow .

Stop man. Its going to be 45 degrees in the morning. It's not going to happen. This is a fast moving cold front. You will be lucky to get flurries

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2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Stop man. Its going to be 45 degrees in the morning. It's not going to happen. This is a fast moving cold front. You will be lucky to get flurries

Okay we shall see

Are you even looking at the models? Before telling me to stop , check the models.

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55 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

people latch onto models outside their range.   The solutions shown 3-4 days ago are nothing like what will actually verify-a cold frontal passage with some rain showers that may end with a mangled flake or two.

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27.png

The only way you do well in this setup is if there is more negative tilt to the trof/front as it crosses or if a surface low forms along the boundary as its pushing offshore.  

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12 minutes ago, psv88 said:

That’s all you look at brotha. And that’s why you chase ghosts every winter. Pick the model that you like best and run with it right?

What ? I look at every model like others do ( maybe not people on here but other forums  )

I'm shocked not alot of people are talking about their possible 1st flakes like other forums are doing.

You woke up on the wrong side of the bed

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Going to be a very long Winter with all this bickering in early November. We are not meteorologist we are here to discuss possible out comes of potential weather events why knock someone if they are going with Snow or Vice versa.? Let’s discuss and see how things play out. Every year it’s the same thing. Bickering on who knows what’s going to happen definitely. If that’s the case please for the love of God, give me some winning lottery numbers..

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28 minutes ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Going to be a very long Winter with all this bickering in early November. We are not meteorologist we are here to discuss possible out comes of potential weather events why knock someone if they are going with Snow or Vice versa.? Let’s discuss and see how things play out. Every year it’s the same thing. Bickering on who knows what’s going to happen definitely. If that’s the case please for the love of God, give me some winning lottery numbers..

This is during the snowiest decade of all time for parts of the region. Imagine what the weather forums would have been like from 79/80-91/92.We can also add 96/97 -01/02 to the list.;)

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33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is during the snowiest decade of all time for parts of the region. Imagine what the weather forums would have been like from 79/80-91/92.We can also add 96/97 -01/02 to the list.;)

mass weenie suicides....although we would expect nothing so a 2 inch snowfall would be seen as a big win...LOL

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It's official. NYC Sanitation has issued a "snow alert" for tomorrow for a coating of snow :arrowhead:

DSNY Issues ‘Snow Alert’ for Tuesday, November 12, 2019 at 10 a.m.

The New York City Department of Sanitation has issued a Snow Alert for Tuesday, November 12, 2019 at 10 a.m.

In a snow alert, DSNY coordinates with NYC Emergency Management and the Department of Transportation on snow clearing protocol in accordance with each agency’s written snow plan. All relevant city agencies have been notified of the snow alert. DSNY will continue to monitor forecasts and will provide updates as the snow event approaches.

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16 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

There was a very similar event back in the late 90s. Mid November powerful cold front that brought a brief but heavy burst of snow. Despite the crashing temps and heavy snow, it did not stick at all do to warm ground temps.

Thats exactly what I would go for with this event. 

Heavy burst of snow is not likely, most won’t even see the possible change to snow.  There is nothing here that supports an anafront

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Just now, qg_omega said:

Heavy burst of snow is not likely, most won’t even see the possible change to snow.  There is nothing here that supports an anafront

There will be a thin line with the actual arctic front that has an enhanced area of precip. That area will have rates intense enough to get snow down to the surface even at the coast. Of course like the event I mentioned there isn’t a shot in hell of it accumulating at the coast as it will be falling with temps around 40 and warm ground. 

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