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November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

For the first half of the 80's when I still lived in Oceanside there was only one storm that really sticks out in my head, the others were pretty forgettable. Those were the years that put more than half of the ski areas in the region out of business because they couldn't invest in snowmaking. As you went further north it wasn't bad at all but below I90 was pretty terrible.

We were sandwiched with more snow both south and north of us.  The April 1982 and February 1983 blizzards were the two major storms that decade, with a few moderate storms like January 1987.

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

I root for some cold weather in winter because it's needed for snow, but I hate a cold blast like this in November. I would love to go outside for a run this evening, but it's too cold for running. So I'll use the exercise bike inside instead, which I don't like nearly as much as running. I don't know how someone can call this type of weather comfortable, but I guess some people like bundling up.

I want this shot of cold to permanently rid us of allergies for this year anyway.

 

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The season's coldest air to date is now in place. At 8:51 pm, the temperature reached freezing for the first time this season in Central Park. Overnight, the mercury will likely reach the upper 20s in New York City. Moderation will occur this weekend, but an even colder air mass will likely arrive later Tuesday.

Following the frontal passage that brings in that cold shot, New York City could see one or two low temperatures in the lower or middle 20s. The minimum temperature Wednesday morning could challenge the Central Park daily record low temperature of 24°, which was set in 1986.

Readings may not return to normal and then above normal across the region until around November 20 +/- a few days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was 0.00 today. The last time the SOI was 0.00 was February 4, 2016.

An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.422.

On November 7, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.731 (RMM). The November 6-adjusted amplitude was 2.576. Today's amplitude is the highest on record during November when the MJO was in Phase 5.

The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal.

Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to warmer than normal conditions, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region.

80% of the cases that saw New York City record a mean temperature below 46.0° during the first half of November went on to see 20" or more seasonal snowfall. Almost one quarter of such winters saw 40" or more snow. This data would suggest 20"-30" seasonal snowfall for the New York City area absent other variables (some of which could increase or reduce such amounts).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 75% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

 

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Next 8 days are averaging 39degs., or about 9degs. BN.

Month to date is  -2.5[48.6].           Should be near -5.8[43.9] by the 17th.

30* here at 6am.      Back to 32* by 7:40am.      35* by 9am.      37* at 10am.      39* at 11am.    40* at Noon.       41* at 1pm.       42* at 2pm.      43* at 3pm.       44* ar 4pm 

EURO/GFS both about 1" of Snow on the 13th.

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