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November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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The season's coldest air to date is now pushing into the region. Already, Binghamton (0.6"), Buffalo (0.6"), Rochester (0.3"), and Syracuse (0.2") have received their first measurable snowfall of winter 2019-20.

Once the cold settles in, the pattern will remain generally cold for the next 10-14 days. Readings might not return to normal and then above normal across the region until around November 20 +/- a few days.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.7°C for the week centered around October 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. A neutral ENSO is currently the base case for Winter 2019-20.

The SOI was +15.84 today.

An SOI reading of -30 or below, as occurred on November 4-5, also occurred during three prior years in the November 1-10 timeframe. All three cases featured a warmer than normal December. The average temperature for those three cases was 2 degrees warmer than normal.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.498.

On November 6, the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.537 (RMM). The November 5-adjusted amplitude was 2.637.

The MJO's move into Phase 5 at a high amplitude reinforces the idea of a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of November. Since 1974, there were 3 cases that saw the MJO in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above for at least 2 days during the November 1-10 period. The November 16-30 temperature averaged 46.1° (0.2° above normal). However, when the case that had a cooler than normal September was excluded, the mean temperature was 49.1° (3.2° above normal). September 2019 had a mean temperature of 70.4°, which was 2.4° above normal.

Even as the second half of November will likely experience a pattern change to warmer than normal conditions, the magnitude of the cold during the first half of the month has made it very likely that November will finish with a cold anomaly in the region.

80% of the cases that saw New York City record a mean temperature below 46.0° during the first half of November went on to see 20" or more seasonal snowfall. Almost one quarter of such winters saw 40" or more snow. This data would suggest 20"-30" seasonal snowfall for the New York City area absent other variables (some of which could increase or reduce such amounts).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, New York City has an implied 81% probability of experiencing a colder than normal November.

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10 minutes ago, Ger said:

ANOTHER 40 plus inches for CPK. What a special place to be, wonder why. Especially out towards Long Island. Highly anomalous but CPK averages around 50 inches anyway which is what they tell me.

it averages 28.4" since 1870...it went 15 years without a 30 inch winter from 1979 to 1993...

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21 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Based on?

I base my prognosis based on how warm and how wet fall is. Also where does it snow first, does it snow upstate first or here in the coast? And it also comes down to when the geese start traveling south! I think we’ll get a lot of snow and a good amount of snow cover stay. It’s also going to be frigid!

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NYC decade snowfall averages...

decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total

1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9
1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8
1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8
1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2
1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6
1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1
1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7
1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6
1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7
1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7
1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3
1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8
1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8
2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T......7.8......6.5....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5
2010-11 to 2018-19......0.3.....1.3.....4.6....14.1......9.0.....6.6......0.6..…36.5


1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3
1980-81 to 2009-10........T......0.3.....4.3......7.1......9.2.....4.0......0.6.....25.4

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50 minutes ago, uncle W said:

NYC decade snowfall averages...

decade.......................Oct.....Nov.....Dec.....Jan.....Feb.....Mar.....Apr.....total

1870-71 to 1879-80......0.1.....0.9.....6.7......9.7......8.8.....4.1......1.6.....31.9
1880-81 to 1889-90........0......1.8.....7.1......8.8......7.6.....6.8......0.7.....32.8
1890-91 to 1899-00........0......3.3.....4.3......8.7....10.6.....7.1......0.8.....34.8
1900-01 to 1909-10........0......0.3.....6.2......9.1......9.2.....4.8......0.6.....30.2
1910-11 to 1919-20........0......0.2.....7.5......4.8......9.5.....8.3......2.3.....32.6
1920-21 to 1929-30......0.1.....0.1.....4.2......8.5....10.1.....2.2......0.9.....26.1
1930-31 to 1939-40........T......2.2.....4.3......6.4......8.5.....3.5......0.8.....25.7
1940-41 to 1949-50........T......0.6.....9.1......7.4......8.6.....4.8......1.1.....31.6
1950-51 to 1959-60......0.1.....0.5.....4.7......5.2......3.4.....8.0......0.8.....22.7
1960-61 to 1969-70........T......0.3.....7.4......7.7....10.6.....4.6......0.1.....30.7
1970-71 to 1979-80........T......0.3.....1.7......7.3......9.5.....2.4......0.1.....21.3
1980-81 to 1989-90........0......0.6.....2.1......7.8......5.3.....2.9......1.1.....19.8
1990-91 to 1999-00........0......0.3.....2.9......6.9......9.1.....5.4......0.2.....24.8
2000-01 to 2009-10........T........T......7.8......6.5....13.3.....3.5......0.4.....31.5
2010-11 to 2018-19......0.4.....1.3.....4.6....14.1......9.0.....6.6......0.6..…36.6


1870-71 to 2009-10........T......0.8.....5.4......7.5......8.9.....4.9......0.8.....28.3
1980-81 to 2009-10........T......0.3.....4.3......7.1......9.2.....4.0......0.6.....25.4

Would it be possible for you to post the yearly totals by month from 1970 to 1996?

 

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Next 8 days are averaging 39degs., or about 10degs. BN.

Month to date is -0.7[50.6].        Should be near -5.3[44.2] by the 16th.

35* here at 6am.       36* by 8am.      37* at 9am.        39* by Noon.

All Snow threats seem dead for next two weeks.

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