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November 2019 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208
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On 11/6/2019 at 8:57 PM, frd said:

I am sure you recall last year, looked great and was great but we hit the middle of December and poof, we lost a lot of the snow cover in the States and in Canada. 

Notice that dramatic decline in the graph around the second part of December. We would recover eventually,  but not till mid Feb. ironic. 

Wonder if we are destined to the same outcome this year?

You would have thought the snow cover might have aided in the delivery of cold air masses into the states,  but alas it seems the ones who did benefit the  most were the Northern Plains and Northern Maine.  

 

 

 

The cold November followed by a mild December has been a very persistent pattern this decade. So the snow extent charts are just reflecting this.

 

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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The cold November followed by a mild December has been a very persistent pattern this decade. So the snow extent charts are just reflecting this new regime

Eh, that stinks and icing on the cake was reading Isotherm's winter forecast.  If I didn't value his insights as much as I do I would throw his forecast aside. But, I can't. 

 

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31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

he cold November followed by a mild December has been a very persistent pattern this decade. So the snow extent charts are just reflecting this new regime

Is the EPO loading pattern / low sea ice, other N Pac features forcing these colder Novembers since 2012? 

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9 minutes ago, frd said:

Is the EPO loading pattern / low sea ice, other N Pac features forcing these colder Novembers since 2012? 

My guess is that it’s a combination of factors. We saw the historic and rapid warming of the entire Pacific basin in 2013. At the same time, the Arctic has continued to warm with large areas of open water lingering into the cold season. So the lower sea ice can work in tandem with the tropical forcing to produce repeating 500 mb patterns that get stuck for extended periods of time. 

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1 hour ago, frd said:

Eh, that stinks and icing on the cake was reading Isotherm's winter forecast.  If I didn't value his insights as much as I do I would throw his forecast aside. But, I can't. 

 

Does anyone know how Isotherm and Larry Cosgrove did last year with their predictions for last winter ? Were the relatively spot on or all over the place ?

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1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Does anyone know how Isotherm and Larry Cosgrove did last year with their predictions for last winter ? Were the relatively spot on or all over the place ?

I don't follow Larry, but I can tell you Isotherm does have a good record at predicting the seasonal trends.  His forecast for the next winter is anticipated by many every late Fall.  

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5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Does anyone know how Isotherm and Larry Cosgrove did last year with their predictions for last winter ? Were the relatively spot on or all over the place ?

A lot of people didnt do well last season.  Tom is a great forecaster  but he failed just like many good ones last winter . The winter didnt turn out to be how they envisioned it.

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4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

A lot of people didnt do well last season.  Tom is a great forecaster  but he failed just like many good ones last winter . The winter didnt turn out to be how they envisioned it.

88 that is exactly what I was thinking as I did not remember ANYONE coming remotely close to getting last year correct but I don't follow either of those guys closely

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10 minutes ago, frd said:

I don't follow Larry, but I can tell you Isotherm does have a good record at predicting the seasonal trends.  His forecast for the next winter is anticipated by many every late Fall.  

Thanks,,,,,maybe someone can post either ISO or Larrys ( or both ) thoughts about next week and we can see if they have a really good handle on things ???????? otherwise I will search them out and try and see for myself

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20 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Does anyone know how Isotherm and Larry Cosgrove did last year with their predictions for last winter ? Were the relatively spot on or all over the place ?

 

16 minutes ago, frd said:

I don't follow Larry, but I can tell you Isotherm does have a good record at predicting the seasonal trends.  His forecast for the next winter is anticipated by many every late Fall.  

 

13 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

A lot of people didnt do well last season.  Tom is a great forecaster  but he failed just like many good ones last winter . The winter didnt turn out to be how they envisioned it.

Larry Cosgrove did OK last winter if I remember correctly. Once again I take seasonal outlooks with a grain of salt regardless of the persons reputation. I think there are to many out there who take these outlooks to gospel. Isotherm does put alot of time and energy into his seasonal outlooks but he can easily bust just like anyone else out there who does them. 

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28 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

 

 

Larry Cosgrove did OK last winter if I remember correctly. Once again I take seasonal outlooks with a grain of salt regardless of the persons reputation. I think there are to many out there who take these outlooks to gospel. Isotherm does put alot of time and energy into his seasonal outlooks but he can easily bust just like anyone else out there who does them. 

It's not an easy task at all trying to make a long term prediction.

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11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I think we're going to see one of the most radical two halves ever. 

2nd half looks to be a blowtorch, early guidance like tonight's GFS already hinting at it. 

I agree. Patterns keep repeating and getting stuck. I would look for a major -PNA. I would be fairly confident to just lock in something similar to last winter. 
The big factor of wether this winter is a dud will be getting a period of NAO blocking. That was the difference between last years nightmare at the coast and 2018’s home run

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29 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I agree. Patterns keep repeating and getting stuck. I would look for a major -PNA. I would be fairly confident to just lock in something similar to last winter. 
The big factor of wether this winter is a dud will be getting a period of NAO blocking. That was the difference between last years nightmare at the coast and 2018’s home run

I don't see any warmup before the 21st just back to average. 

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