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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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1 minute ago, SR Airglow said:

If you were gonna ski tomorrow would you do Loon, Killington, or make the haul to Sugarbush on limited terrain because the other two have too much of a mixing risk? My gut says Loon and K will be okay but the mix line flirts too closely to both of them for my taste.

Kmart is prob safer than Loon. 

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Just now, SR Airglow said:

That was my gut feel as well, Loon probably has the higher ceiling but also a far lower floor. Should be a fun one regardless, could be 55* and raining so I’ll take what I can get in November.

If you don't have to make a decision until tonight, you could see another full round of guidance (plus 18z runs) to see if there is a tick in either direction. If it ticks SE then obviously Loon is the choice. 

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

If you don't have to make a decision until tonight, you could see another full round of guidance (plus 18z runs) to see if there is a tick in either direction. If it ticks SE then obviously Loon is the choice. 

Probably will make the final call tomorrow morning on 93N, but would like to have some idea nailed down tonight, definitely still have some time though as you said for this to go either way.

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Loon is probably ok if the track holds. Gets close, but I think they’re alright. I’m biased since it’s so easy to get to. If they get a pellet or two, it’s probably brief.

Yup, closest mountain to Boston that's what I would consider a large resort (2k+ of vert) with great snowmaking, decent natural, and some pretty fun terrain. Unfortunately that means it's often a gongshow on busy weekends, but it's still a great time if you know the place and know where to not go. Guess we'll see what happens over the next couple of runs, too bad Sugarbush has so little open as they'd be the winner here. They generally are pretty aggressive opening things on natural but probably need another storm or two first.

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2 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

 


Or in my case, will 225’ be enough lol. I’m thinking you’re in a pretty good place. Just gotta get the strong dynamics above you and boom.


.

 

In these kind of situations so often NWS ALY will fall back on 1500' being the magic # for significant elevational snows. I'm braced for that this afternoon when they finally decide to go out on a limb with accumulations.  But yeah plenty of evidence that 1k feet might still do it with dynamics.  

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Crap-o-rama looks to be en route here tomorrow. No cold high to the north, FTL. A month from now you can get away without a cold high to the north more often, but this early in the season it can be tough even here to get a good snowstorm without it unless if midlevel forcing is enough to dynamically flip things to snow. NAM is warm between 800-900 mb and Euro too although I can't see soundings from it. HRRR looks like isothermal pasting but it's still beyond it's useful range.  

Freezing rain to wet snow is what I think here, 2-4". Hopefully the freezing rain won't accrete too much, but with heavy rain and surface temperatures at or just barely below freezing I don't think it'll be too bad as the water will drip off before it can freeze. 

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6 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

Crap-o-rama looks to be en route here tomorrow. No cold high to the north, FTL. A month from now you can get away without a cold high to the north more often, but this early in the season it can be tough even here to get a good snowstorm without it unless if midlevel forcing is enough to dynamically flip things to snow. NAM is warm between 800-900 mb and Euro too although I can't see soundings from it. HRRR looks like isothermal pasting but it's still beyond it's useful range.  

Freezing rain to wet snow is what I think here, 2-4". Hopefully the freezing rain won't accrete too much, but with heavy rain and surface temperatures at or just barely below freezing I don't think it'll be too bad as the water will drip off before it can freeze. 

I think at your elevation you’ll do much better. I’d expect a good 8-12” at Searsburg Pass.

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15 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

Crap-o-rama looks to be en route here tomorrow. No cold high to the north, FTL. A month from now you can get away without a cold high to the north more often, but this early in the season it can be tough even here to get a good snowstorm without it unless if midlevel forcing is enough to dynamically flip things to snow. NAM is warm between 800-900 mb and Euro too although I can't see soundings from it. HRRR looks like isothermal pasting but it's still beyond it's useful range.  

Freezing rain to wet snow is what I think here, 2-4". Hopefully the freezing rain won't accrete too much, but with heavy rain and surface temperatures at or just barely below freezing I don't think it'll be too bad as the water will drip off before it can freeze. 

You could get pounded for awhile though with the dynamics and that elevation, afternoon mostly when the column can cool rapidly. Before that yes more of an icy variety.

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15 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

Crap-o-rama looks to be en route here tomorrow. No cold high to the north, FTL. A month from now you can get away without a cold high to the north more often, but this early in the season it can be tough even here to get a good snowstorm without it unless if midlevel forcing is enough to dynamically flip things to snow. NAM is warm between 800-900 mb and Euro too although I can't see soundings from it. HRRR looks like isothermal pasting but it's still beyond it's useful range.  

Freezing rain to wet snow is what I think here, 2-4". Hopefully the freezing rain won't accrete too much, but with heavy rain and surface temperatures at or just barely below freezing I don't think it'll be too bad as the water will drip off before it can freeze. 

At least you’ll take some trees down and lose power.. so you’ve got that 

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Extended hrrr is pretty unstable anyways. I still feel good where you are, but you may want to look at the SPC HREF in about an hour. 

I’ve found it to be pretty decent in this early season mayhem.  But anyway, definite SE tick in precip across the 12z suite so far.  

Very narrow area of heavy snows most likely.

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