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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think halving it's value just since May is quick relative to that range its self...  I mean 14 to 7, with one month in there where it dropped from 14 to 10.. I don't know if that means it can't flop to +2 than -1 soon enough is all. 

I don't know how fast that is as typical behavior goes - no, but I said it "seems" 

That is slow...take a look at the 2010 flip to positive...

2010  -16.02  -16.98  -19.68  -23.57  -26.28  -25.05   -9.84    1.45    6.58   10.83   12.16   10.97

 

Plenty of other examples, aside from that nearly 16 differential in one month.

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1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is slow...take a look at the 2010 flip to positive...


2010  -16.02  -16.98  -19.68  -23.57  -26.28  -25.05   -9.84    1.45    6.58   10.83   12.16   10.97

 

Plenty of other examples, aside from that nearly 16 differential in one month.

I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make… there are faster transitions in the data set? OK

I don’t think this is slow considering we only have seven points left before it’s going negative. And there’s already been one month where it dropped 4 of that 14 - roughly 1/3rd the total ...all at once. If it does that again then you got even less argument / hence why I said “seem”. it’s a matter of magnitude I’m not arguing if that 2010 example is fast or slow that’s irrelevant. I said relative to this particular data range 

And just to reiterate the point… I’m wondering if  these single digit positive numbers aren’t below some correlation threshold anyway. Just by the nature of it when you get closer to zero that means no skill which means it can go either way. 7 is not far so it could be a moot point anyway

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Looks a pretty cool event for you N folks 

As long as I don’t need to re-peat that saying for most storms late December to Early March i May stay sane this winter 

Just move to Stowe Bro!  Actually, move to Burlington where there is some type of night life and be in striking distance to Stowe and Jay. 

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make… there are faster transitions in the data set? OK

I don’t think this is slow considering we only have seven points left before it’s going negative. And there’s already been one month where it dropped 4 of that 14 - roughly 1/3rd the total ...all at once. If it does that again then you got even less argument / hence why I said “seem”. it’s a matter of magnitude I’m not arguing if that 2010 example is fast or slow that’s irrelevant. I said relative to this particular data range 

And just to reiterate the point… I’m wondering if  these single digit positive numbers aren’t below some correlation threshold anyway. Just by the nature of it when you get closer to zero that means no skill which means it can go either way. 7 is not far so it could be a moot point anyway

Its slow because its moving like 1.5 points per month. If that isn't below average, then what is??

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This is pretty cool to see.

I also wonder if this bodes well moving forward. Seems like the theme since early fall as been for these positive height anomalies to strengthen between 180-120W over the Arctic region and that has been some big time warmth at 10 hPa which has developed. 

It does look like this will relax a bit but maybe watch that area around 50E...perhaps that's what is triggering some of the responses we're seeing near Thanksgiving? 

500 hecto Pascals height anomalies from 45 to 60 degrees north latitudeNorthern Hemisphere 10 hecto Pascals Temperature Anomalies Animation

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