Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

November 2019 discussion


weathafella
 Share

Recommended Posts

37 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This one has legs because we are not reliant on Judah’s phantom Strat Warming that takes 4 months to have a downstream effect. 

First time I've read Judah's name this season. It felt refreshing not having to read about snow advance in Verkhoyansk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You need to keep in mind that the negative QBO is not descending until like February, which could factor in...

Huh... I thought the easterly phase had already set in.  Could of swore I read that somewhere... 

Well, in any case, the solar minimum stuff is strongly correlated with SSW, too.  And seeing as the QBO is in the process of differentiating negative, that may be just as suggestive/important on that side of the contribution...  

I just just checked ESRL and it's 7 and change in October, having dropped from 14/May... It seems it's quelling off pretty quickly.  The other thing we may want to consider is "thresholds" - I've read countless times that positive phase implies this and negative phase implies that. Point being, +7 doesn't appear to be "strong" comparing the billions of months in that file where 1/3 of them are over (+)(-)15;  I'm just wonder if strength in either phase correlate differently.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Huh... I thought the easterly phase had already set in.  Could of swore I read that somewhere... 

Well, in any case, the solar minimum stuff is strongly correlated with SSW, too.  And seeing as the QBO is in the process of differentiating negative, that may be just as suggestive/important on that side of the contribution...  

I just just checked ESRL and it's 7 and change in October, having dropped from 14/May... It seems it's quelling off pretty quickly.  The other thing we may want to consider is "thresholds" - I've read countless times that positive phase implies this and negative phase implies that. Point being, +7 doesn't appear to be "strong" comparing the billions of months in that file where 1/3 of them are over (+)(-)15;  I'm just wonder if strength in either phase correlate differently.  

Oh, all valid points. Its far from an exact science....totally debatable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Huh... I thought the easterly phase had already set in.  Could of swore I read that somewhere... 

Well, in any case, the solar minimum stuff is strongly correlated with SSW, too.  And seeing as the QBO is in the process of differentiating negative, that may be just as suggestive/important on that side of the contribution...  

I just just checked ESRL and it's 7 and change in October, having dropped from 14/May... It seems it's quelling off pretty quickly.  The other thing we may want to consider is "thresholds" - I've read countless times that positive phase implies this and negative phase implies that. Point being, +7 doesn't appear to be "strong" comparing the billions of months in that file where 1/3 of them are over (+)(-)15;  I'm just wonder if strength in either phase correlate differently.  

This...I think that is a great point with strong validity. 

Obviously...here major...perhaps biggest driver here is the structure of the QBO. 

*cue in Sam Lillo with his amazing MQI data*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@Typhoon Tip....only point I will disagree with is that its quelling off quickly, which is my main point. Its been very slow. Take a look at the rate of descent in some other seasons in that tabular data...

I think halving it's value just since May is quick relative to that range its self...  I mean 14 to 7, with one month in there where it dropped from 14 to 10.. I don't know if that means it can't flop to +2 than -1 soon enough is all. 

I don't know how fast that is as typical behavior goes - no, but I said it "seems" 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...