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November 2019 discussion


weathafella
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51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Anafrontal is post  frontal. That means you have mid level waa or something to help force frontogenesis in the mid levels behind the surface cold front. You will have that, but best chance may be near cape. You can see on radar down south with the bowing of precip in western NC and VA. That is progged to slide near and just east of us. 

Seems like it's usually wet flakes or the rare 1 times out of 10 coating with this type of transition. The ceiling remains low. 

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10 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

To a lot of the general public it actually doesn not count in their eyes. I've had many storms just over the past 5 years where i got 6" or more under a winter storm warning and all the roads were wet, especially the highways. Most people i've talked to think the forecast busted because they only had to plow a sloppy inch off their drive or sidewalks. To some extent i can agree with them.

I really think winter storm warnings and advisories should be based on impact and not just an exact snowfall criteria measured on a white reflective surface cleared every six hours perfectly placed. Even with general forecast from the private sector or news stations, when there is a substanial difference i think there should be two maps, one for roads/sidewalks/highways and one for grass/decks/roofs/wood etc. The former is what has the real impact, not the latter. Or they can at least mention and emphasize the difference in accumulation on different surfaces.

I don't know what the right answer is, just throwing this out there. I do know the vast majority of the public (from my social circle. family/friends/etc) has no idea what the difference between a Watch, Warning and Advisory is. All they want to know is how much and when. 

Believe it or not, down here forecast are not based on the six hours clearing method although some people do it. They are based on what will be on the ground. Weather it's fluffy snow that sublimates or wet snow that settles. Ask Harvey Leonard on channel 5 down here and others. He bases the his forecast and many TV Mets on what will hit the ground based on storm track, duration, air temps, W.E. (Water Equivalency), and ground temps; not the manipulation of that falling to the ground. So far many TV Mets do not try to predict how some individuals will measure just what the public will overall see with their eyes when the storm is complete. Trying to work that six hour measuring technique into a forecast would be very difficult to do not to mention it is not as uniform as many may believe.

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58 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looks like EWR is going to shatter their record low max tomorrow. This is terrible...brutal. Hopefully this is the coldest airmass we get all season 

It’s gonna be 32 tomorrow...that’s not to brutal in January. In fact it’s about normal for a mid January day.   Yes it’s quite cold for mid November.  But if this is the coldest air we get all winter..this winter is gonna suck azz. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s gonna be 32 tomorrow...that’s not to brutal in January. In fact it’s about normal for a mid January day.   Yes it’s quite cold for mid November.  But if this is the coldest air we get all winter..this winter is gonna suck azz. 

So think about deviation.  -20 deviation here in Nov. In Jan thats a zero day

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Moderate snow 31.2F   

Light snow yesterday afternoon.  Sleet and freezing rain last eve to freezing drizzle and 28F overnight.  Everything iced over.  Went to snow around 730am. Temperatures with the snow have been rising.  31.1F is our high since late afternoon. So air is mixing with low level cold being scored out.

Cars encased in ice so just got the cleaned off before fropa which should be any time now

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6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s gonna be 32 tomorrow...that’s not to brutal in January. In fact it’s about normal for a mid January day.   Yes it’s quite cold for mid November.  But if this is the coldest air we get all winter..this winter is gonna suck azz. 

This deserves all the buns this forum can muster

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That sounds weird to me that they might actually lose a lawsuit because someone claimed they slipped on snow at a ski resort. 

Not if it happened off slope.  People sue for anything.  It wouldn't surprise me if it is less expensive than hiring people to maintain the sidewalks manually.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s gonna be 32 tomorrow...that’s not to brutal in January. In fact it’s about normal for a mid January day.   Yes it’s quite cold for mid November.  But if this is the coldest air we get all winter..this winter is gonna suck azz. 

meant more for overnight lows...single digits with lower teens. 

BDL I think lowest avg max is like 33 or 34 and lowest min in the upper teens.

I'm only dreaming hoping this is the coldest lol...also, with our latitude we can still probably get alot of snow without these brutal airmasses.  

 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

meant more for overnight lows...single digits with lower teens. 

BDL I think lowest avg max is like 33 or 34 and lowest min in the upper teens.

I'm only dreaming hoping this is the coldest lol...also, with our latitude we can still probably get alot of snow without these brutal airmasses.  

 

Yes, But you still get one of these because of the first part of that sentence.............................:weenie:

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6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

meant more for overnight lows...single digits with lower teens. 

BDL I think lowest avg max is like 33 or 34 and lowest min in the upper teens.

I'm only dreaming hoping this is the coldest lol...also, with our latitude we can still probably get alot of snow without these brutal airmasses.  

 

30/10 is probably closer to climo than brutal. 

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15 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Not if it happened off slope.  People sue for anything.  It wouldn't surprise me if it is less expensive than hiring people to maintain the sidewalks manually.

It makes total sense in todays world.  You completely eliminated the high new england labor cost of snow/ice removal and the big lawsuits.

My sister is a lawyer. How it works is everyone sues for everything even if its completely your fault. Its cheaper to just pay out then spending 300 an hour on lawyers for months to litigate it. You slip on ice its cheaper to say heres 50k we will settle it now. Thre statistic is like 80% of people will just take the first quick payout and its over.  

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17 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Not if it happened off slope.  People sue for anything.  It wouldn't surprise me if it is less expensive than hiring people to maintain the sidewalks manually.

We had heated exit pads at the Museum.  Worked great but use a lot of electricity. 1/27/15 they melted all snow that fell and then a breaker failed and we ended up with lots of ice. Was a pain in the arse the rest of winter as Electricians tried to find what was causing the short in underground wiring. 

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