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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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THE ECMWF SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE MOST   
CONSISTENT WITH THIS THREAT, WHICH CONTINUED ON THE 00Z CYCLE,   
INCLUDING GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. PREVIOUS HOLDOUT GFS SUITE   
TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THE 00Z CYCLE. THE MEAN   
SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES BRINGS ITS BROAD SNOW   
SWATH OVER THE CWA, WITH THIS LIKELY BEING FROM A DEVELOPING   
DEFORMATION AREA BASED ON THE GENERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBER SURFACE LOW   
PLACEMENT. ....LOT AM AFD on the potential. If 12Z holds might be thread time.
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On 2/8/2020 at 12:07 AM, BuffaloWeather said:

Do solar mins lead to less PV disruptions?

The research I've read (and that people generally trumpet) is that at the least, solar mins generally lead to weaker PV's...however, I haven't read any research actually linking mid-winter disruptions/hits to the PV, and there is some research suggesting that there is a lag, IE your greatest affects are felt just after the solar min (which would be the next couple of winters). 

Certain things argued for a weaker PV this year or tried to argue for it...usually, a warmer ENSO argues for it, but a warm Indian Ocean weakens the signal, and the warm ENSO was central Pacific based (weaker signal) and was not really strong enough to classify as even a weak El Nino (another weaker signal).  Usually, a dropping QBO also argues for one, but I think it dropped just a bit too late to be helpful this winter.  I do find it interesting that multiple signals pre-season suggesting a weaker stratospheric PV were just off, and allowed for this beast.  If I had to scapegoat, I'd use the borderline record positive Indian Ocean Dipole, as that supported an unfavorable Asian-Pacific jet stream for polar vortex disruptions in the falll/early winter.  I'm a little irritated that I sort of overlooked the Indian Ocean's influence on this winter (or hoped it would weaken quickly enough to avoid disaster). 

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