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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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Meh, it's been eventful here in the Great Lakes, that's not been an issue. Neither is season snowfall to date.  The issue is having Winter sustain itself from more than one week at a time.
 
I see no reason however why the active pattern will not continue, when you see all the noise in the in ensemble precip means in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, that tells me it likely will remain active. And you can count on some of us getting more snow. The million dollar question is will we get a stretch of cold and systems that are all snow? 

Sounds local, no? I’ve gotten next to nothing in the way of snow or cold. Been a rainy warm winter for my area
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2 minutes ago, King James said:


Sounds local, no? I’ve gotten next to nothing in the way of snow or cold. Been a rainy warm winter for my area

Yes i was referring to the Grand Rapids comment about an active weather pattern. It's been a mild Winter here obviously as well. But it's not like it's not been active.  Locally we are running around average season snowfall to date, but it has definitely not felt wintery much of the time

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I would dispute the active part a little bit.  I guess it depends on how you define the word and where you are.  There were those couple unusually early storms in Oct/Nov.  Then there were a couple significant storms in different parts of the sub in December, but I wouldn't really call that "active" overall.  You expect some storminess... this isn't the desert.  Recall that December was quite bad and boring in those areas that missed out on the bigger storms that month (ORD could hardly buy a drop of any kind of precip in the first 4 weeks).  January has been better in terms of storm frequency and hopefully we build on it and get some bigger storms.

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3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Meh, it's been eventful here in the Great Lakes, that's not been an issue. Neither is season snowfall to date.  The issue is having Winter sustain itself from more than one week at a time.

 

I see no reason however why the active pattern will not continue, when you see all the noise in the in ensemble precip means in the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, that tells me it likely will remain active. And you can count on some of us getting more snow. The million dollar question is will we get a stretch of cold and systems that are all snow? 

...one of these days you're gonna snap.   A diet of denial and sugar-coated turds, (ie halloween snow storms and blackened snow piles in parking lots),  can only sustain you for so long....   

It will be epic when it finally happens :popcorn:

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7 minutes ago, buckeye said:

...one of these days you're gonna snap.   A diet of denial and sugar-coated turds, (ie halloween snow storms and blackened snow piles in parking lots),  can only sustain you for so long....   

It will be epic when it finally happens :popcorn:

:lol:

He has yet to experience a futility winter. Detroit's been extremely lucky compared to most of us. In 2011-12 Toronto got 17" and 20.6" in 2009-10. Two futility winters in a very short time frame. Once he gets to that level, all our complaints will make total sense. 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I would dispute the active part a little bit.  I guess it depends on how you define the word and where you are.  There were those couple unusually early storms in Oct/Nov.  Then there were a couple significant storms in different parts of the sub in December, but I wouldn't really call that "active" overall.  You expect some storminess... this isn't the desert.  Recall that December was quite bad and boring in those areas that missed out on the bigger storms that month (ORD could hardly buy a drop of any kind of precip in the first 4 weeks).  January has been better in terms of storm frequency and hopefully we build on it and get some bigger storms.

I agree, lots of rain during December and January doesn’t equal a active time to me. When I hear people say “ but we’ve had average snowfall to this point” I can’t stop thinking it sounds like a Detroit Lions fan when they say “but we had the lead in all of our losses this season so we’re so close to being a good team” 

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2 hours ago, buckeye said:

...one of these days you're gonna snap.   A diet of denial and sugar-coated turds, (ie halloween snow storms and blackened snow piles in parking lots),  can only sustain you for so long....   

It will be epic when it finally happens :popcorn:

Im irritated too trust me. And Ive stated as much multiple times. Its just not been as bad here as the OV. I said its been active here, and it has. Snowfall is running avg and precip well above. 

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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

:lol:

He has yet to experience a futility winter. Detroit's been extremely lucky compared to most of us. In 2011-12 Toronto got 17" and 20.6" in 2009-10. Two futility winters in a very short time frame. Once he gets to that level, all our complaints will make total sense. 

This isnt even the complaint thread lol. I simply stated its been active. I have been on weather boards for 18 years and there is always, always, ALWAYS complaining. There isnt a weather pattern possible that avoids whining. This year, complaining is warranted. 

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1 hour ago, slow poke said:

I agree, lots of rain during December and January doesn’t equal a active time to me. When I hear people say “ but we’ve had average snowfall to this point” I can’t stop thinking it sounds like a Detroit Lions fan when they say “but we had the lead in all of our losses this season so we’re so close to being a good team” 

Lol. I think it's funny that when we do have a crap Winter you really have to limit your talk of the actual weather that has occurred, and just keep saying its the worst ever to avoid being called out lol. If you know me, you know that this is exactly the Winter that I do NOT prefer. Simply stating that we've had average snowfall is the absolute truth. How have we gotten to that point? Two big snowstorms and lots of little Lake effect snow dustings. If you know me, you know I would much much MUCH prefer a healthy dosage of spread out clippers. Snow cover is surprisingly not even running that far below normal, once again, because we had record snow cover in November. All of these things are absolutely not the way I would draw up my perfect Winter. But they still are what they are. I wish I had a dime for every time I heard on the weatherboard (granted these people apparently do not post here anymore) back in the day when we would get small snow after small snow after small snow leading up to a very nice Winter but with not a lot of big storms, they would say I'm tired of these nuisance snows, I just want a big storm then nothing. Where. Are. They. Now?:lol:

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56 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

I can practically guarantee winter to come sometime after Feb 9th. I booked my flight back to Puerto Rico then and with out fail, every time I do it becomes snowy in the Lakes...

 Sounds good. I work from home that whole week and then I'm going to the UP the next week for 4 days.

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2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Im irritated too trust me. And Ive stated as much multiple times. Its just not been as bad here as the OV. I said its been active here, and it has. Snowfall is running avg and precip well above. 

I'm just messing with you....but i would like to see you go off just once though.

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4 hours ago, slow poke said:

I agree, lots of rain during December and January doesn’t equal a active time to me. When I hear people say “ but we’ve had average snowfall to this point” I can’t stop thinking it sounds like a Detroit Lions fan when they say “but we had the lead in all of our losses this season so we’re so close to being a good team” 

"But I nailed it at 500"

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21 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Mid to late February at the earliest, based on these.

 

Larry Cosrove tells the Eastern seaboard he expects mild to continue for most of February with a quick back loaded Winter through mid March before warming. Meanwhile, he says cold and snow during February should be between the continental divide in the Appalachian mountains (ie, looking decent for the lakes). Honestly, this Winter is just not going to be the kind of Winter that I like, snowcover just wont establish itself for long periods, so we might as well see if we can keep the hot hand at getting juiced up systems moving through the region.

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2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Just in time to make it keep snowing through the end of April and virtually eliminate the storm chase season, just like 2018. :axe:

Luckily we have a few (possibly) silver linings:

1) its not guaranteed yet that a SSW will occur, only half of the GEFS have a warming occurring in the next 2 weeks

2) Not all SSW are the same and depending on how the vortex gets split/the alignment of the blocking we may not get brutal cold

3) By the second half of May, when prime storm chase season is occurring, the weather patterns are not really connected to any SSW occurring in Feb/Mar

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