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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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1 hour ago, Chambana said:

He did a pivot from 2014-2015 and is now claiming 65-66 is a top analog. WB has been pounding the table, just like 65-66 winter will come roaring the 2nd half of the season! It’s comical. 

God i hope not...65-66 was terrible here.

 

 Although jokes aside, the long range after next weekend's brief mild up is back to cold on all models, which naturally is to be taken with a grain of salt

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35 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

65-66????? oooooooooooookkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk.

this afternoon he made a post using January '78 as an example of a January that in spite of being remembered as a severe winter month, featured several warm/rain storms in the east.    

so now i'm excited....we are in the midst of January'78....we just don't know it yet!!!!!!

 

  • Haha 3
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4 hours ago, Chambana said:

He did a pivot from 2014-2015 and is now claiming 65-66 is a top analog. WB has been pounding the table, just like 65-66 winter will come roaring the 2nd half of the season! It’s comical. 

You have to wonder if Ryan Maue  left Weatherbell because of disagreements with the other staff members regarding climate change, or at least their style of weather forecasting.

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54 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Will the warm flip back to cold again(and then back and back and back) or is the warm going to stick?

Last winter lasted five weeks.  Maybe this winter will last two weeks.

Take a look at the data for January 1950 in Toronto. Bear in mind that this followed a cold November. Lots of flip flopping that month...this month kind of looks similar.

 

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?hlyRange=1953-01-01|2013-06-13&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2013-06-13&mlyRange=1937-01-01|2013-06-01&StationID=5097&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2017&selRowPerPage=25&Line=61&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=Toronto&timeframe=2&Day=1&Year=1950&Month=1

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41 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

That winter was a moderate La Nina. Totally different atmospheric set-up despite the similar anomalies. 

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1 hour ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I gather it's now looking to be very warm for the last week of January? That's quite a flip, is it not? Wasn't it looking very cold for the same time period not so long ago?

Not very warm lol (other than op euro), but much milder than it was looking. The mildness appears to be brief however with these models you can't guess on anything.

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42 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

 January 1950 was one of the most roller coaster month you will ever see in the lakes, though it certainly leaned on the warm side.

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1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Will the warm flip back to cold again(and then back and back and back) or is the warm going to stick?

Last winter lasted five weeks.  Maybe this winter will last two weeks.

2015-16 and 2016-17 were pretty abysmal outside of Dec 16 locally. 

It feels like our winters are getting shorter. 

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