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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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These positive tilted/southern stream dominant systems always underperform with cold sector precip.  Cold sector precip is narrow/fleeting where it occurs.  Without a northern stream component to phase with this will be a non-event except for maybe a 25 mile wide area that gets a quick 2-3" of slop.

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3 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

These positive tilted/southern stream dominant systems always underperform with cold sector precip.  Cold sector precip is narrow/fleeting where it occurs.  Without a northern stream component to phase with this will be a non-event except for maybe a 25 mile wide area that gets a quick 2-3" of slop.

Definitely run the risk of a fairly narrow area of snow with this type of evolution, but it has been hard to get a good phase to benefit the heart of the sub or to even get much action in general, so it is nice to see something.  The ice potential looks like it could be intriguing but way too early to really dig into that. 

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7 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

These positive tilted/southern stream dominant systems always underperform with cold sector precip.  Cold sector precip is narrow/fleeting where it occurs.  Without a northern stream component to phase with this will be a non-event except for maybe a 25 mile wide area that gets a quick 2-3" of slop.

Phasing is not required to get lots of heavy precip. Wind, maybe, but it could still be a hellacious storm if enough cold air is available..

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The tight baroclinic zone over the region indicates potential for strong low and mid level f-gen and associated banding. Don't need a wrapped up system to get good precip amounts in cold sector with that as the mid December event along I-70 corridor showed, along with some of the events in recent winters (Feb 8-9 2018 comes to mind up here). Also, there's good agreement in strong upper jet divergence for large scale ascent. There's lots of ways this could go and it could certainly be a minimal event, but also counter reasons why it could work out.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I suppose there are no absolutes but generally speaking, I think slower solutions are more likely to end up farther north.  In that case, the northern stream can't put as much of a cap on how far north this can come.  

Good point.  Also, no way a respectable storm is trending south in this stew of meterological indice garbage.   It either keeps heading nw or it dissolves and ends up a putrid weak reflection that slides under us and out to sea....(like this week's situation)

tele.jpg

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23 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Good point.  Also, no way a respectable storm is trending south in this stew of meterological indice garbage.   It either keeps heading nw or it dissolves and ends up a putrid weak reflection that slides under us and out to sea....(like this week's situation)

tele.jpg

Half of February 08 was spent in unfavourable phases (3-4-5-6) along with a +NAO/AO pattern. We can get lucky depending on where NPAC ridge sets up and how it impacts the gradient. A bit further east into the EPO domain could allow for a slightly suppressed SE ridge. 

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