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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

That's actually incorrect. Look at the GEFS and EPS ensemble mean 2m temps over the northern Plains and northern Lakes next Friday and Saturday. There's pretty high confidence in a cold surface high being draped north of us based off MSLP anomalies in both ensembles.

Euro/EPS have been getting stronger with the cold dumping into the NW during this period as well, more of an Arctic source region than a Pacific one.

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Euro/EPS have been getting stronger with the cold dumping into the NW during this period as well, more of an Arctic source region than a Pacific one.

Although it's not registering as a -EPO on the teleconnection charts because of the strong negative height anomalies along the Pac NW coast, the mid week ridge spike over Alaska due to a deep ULL over the Bering Sea functions as a temporary -EPO to dislodge that very cold air and send it southeastward. Then it looks like another ridge spike over Alaska Friday into Saturday that's trended stronger on the EPS vs yesterday.

 

 

 

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The trend recently in this pattern has been for bigger storms out in that range to come in weaker/strung out/not-phased.

 

Case in point see the strung out/un-phased system moving across the region and East Coast the past few days, and then the upcoming strung out system around mid-week. Both were shown as sig winter storms just several days back.

 

 

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20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The downside to basically leaving the southern stream wave to its own devices is a fairly narrow area of wintry precip.  We've had a tough time getting proper phases though so I'm almost ready to try anything

 

I trust nothing, especially the euro.   I was really focusing and following the 'threat' that was showing for this coming week.   If you recall, it started as a major low cutting to the lower lakes with a lot of wind and snow on the nw flanks.   It then started to look like a Josh special with the low cutting through Ohio.   Then came our turn with a few runs of the low tracking through KY.   

Now, it looks like it will end up a sloppy, slushy 1-2" event for DC.  :lol:

I see Chicago just ninja'd me

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

The trend recently in this pattern has been for bigger storms out in that range to come in weaker/strung out.

Case in point see the strung out/un-phased system moving across the region and East Coast the past few days, and then the upcoming strung out system around mid-week. Both were shown as sig winter storms just several days back.


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it's so true.   I can't think of a scenario where the euro was showing a wound up low, (say sub 990), in the long range, that ended up verifying stronger.....(unless it's a coastal low).    9 time out of 10 they weaken, flatten, shear out to nothing, or just disappear all together.

 

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While it hasn't been as torchy as late December (not a hard thing to accomplish since it was so far above average then), 2020 is off to a pretty mild start.  Generally speaking, the mins have been farther above average than the maxes in the region, though there are some pretty significant positive departures with the maxes as well.

MonthTDeptUS.thumb.png.a7cda7e50d634f97036b535e3a571450.png

YearTMAXDeptUS.thumb.png.95b9458da6b331512bc3f6f60ae510da.png

YearTMINDeptUS.thumb.png.4ba36c08028de28316a920c3cdcee5be.png

 

Also, thought I would bump this map that I posted a while back.  Pretty clear that the timeframe on this map is going to end up warmer than average in a lot of the N area, and substantially so.  Not to bust on CPC, but I wonder why the warm signal was missed?

610temp_new.gif.a51fae81dbf941f527e43989c1e3d0b2.thumb.gif.06ae9bc1804956eb7f0e821f5cba4b39.gif

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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

I was bored so I began watching a radar loop lol. The winter of 2004-05 was a fairly interesting and active winter for most of us. Got around 65.0" locally. 

Back when phased storms were a thing lol. 

 

Wasn't keeping stats back then, but I remember that winter being very benign for this area.  Come to think of it, just like this POS winter lol.

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Only about 5 more days to run out the clock on model runs lol

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.thumb.png.e7c26bb748cf0edeb8d9f096abe4d260.png

 

This may not work out in the end but at least for now, it is set up in an okay way.  The northern stream sort of scoots by harmlessly without acting to shunt the emerging southern stream wave really far south.  One possibility is that the northern stream is more aggressive and acts as more of a suppressing agent but we aren't really seeing that on the latest runs.

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh120-150.thumb.gif.595724d1fe9519705e4432739c780c74.gif

 

 

 

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Ice accumulations could be on the lighter side with this storm, especially at the surface. A lot of the areas with freezing rain reach high 40s and even low 50s on Friday afternoon. The wind speeds are also on the slower side. Of course trees and power lines could still be an issue regardless. Just something to keep an eye on.

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16 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

 Didn’t Hoosier himself bring up his drinking on a post awhile back? 

I drink maybe a handful of times a year and don't even keep the stuff around.  Try to be careful with what I do as I had an aunt who basically drank herself to death.  

I didn't take personal offense to Alek's comment but it can be a sensitive subject.

On a weather related note, the ICON looks pretty crappy for the storm.  Let's see what the GFS does.

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Look at that heavy precip feeding into the ice area.  Would probably lose a significant amount to runoff though with those kind of rates unless temps are way below freezing.

I’ll play along since this is the best thing we’ve had to track in a while. Temps would be in the upper 20’s in much of that icy area. If the wintry side of this system doesn’t work out I’ll live vicariously through the Southeast forums and track the severe wx potential. SPC has Day 6 and 7 slight risks out already for the Deep South. 
 

Edit: Edited to include map zoomed in. 

F1DF6DCA-AFE6-47A3-A37C-E3E333AEA0BF.jpeg

DF4A5000-40A6-4B93-A9B6-FD11CED9E321.png

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