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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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On 12/9/2019 at 7:11 AM, Chicago Storm said:

ENS finally showing changes...

Growing support for a neutral to - AO/NAO/PNA starting next weekend. MJO looks likely to head back into the COD, staying out of warmer phases. Add in the PV chunk that will take hold in the Hudson region.

Should lead to more cold shots and chances for snow...finally...for next week. Hopefully can get something going for a white Christmas.


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On the flip side to this... the Euro ENS and the +EPO it has is a perfect example of what can go wrong, potentially leading to a continued mild/snowless pattern.

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31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gotta be a bit concerned about the lack of cold showing up in the days before the holiday.  Do we get it back in time or will we be lamenting about how the grinch stole Christmas?  

Actually the 12Z GFS ensembles are the coldest theyve been in days. The model circus will just continue to go up-and-down all through the Winter and beyond.

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I hate reading this thread, when a page takes days to complete.  Punts, ZZZZzz's, November snows and south stank are like horderves. They kind of tie you over until the main course. Although, I can't wait for the first seasonal weenie melt down and winter to hunker in.

 

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Actually the 12Z GFS ensembles are the coldest theyve been in days. The model circus will just continue to go up-and-down all through the Winter and beyond.

That's true... they have trended colder.  Doesn't negate the concern though.  And lack of cold doesn't necessarily mean all out torch, it just means, well, not cold enough.

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

GFS is on the northern end, but it has actually shifted south. 

As I said awhile back....its all fluff until it's inside of 48hrs showing the same solution on the euro plus 2 additional major models.  

Scoring in this pattern is like trying to get a rabbit pregnant by throwing it in a tumbling dryer with 10 other horny rabbits.   Sure it can happen but there's gonna be a lot more thump'n and bump'n before any hump'n.

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The GFS has been atrocious all cool season. No reason yet to put much stock in it until more modeling supports it with next week's potential system. Today's 12z EPS has less members getting snow up this far north. Just have to hope the blind squirrel finds a nut this time.

 

Another note on GFS/GEFS: the GEFS has always been known to be inferior to the EPS because it has less members and it's too non-dispersive (runs too close to the operational). The "upgraded" GFS and the current iteration of the GEFS aren't even based off the same physics package, since the GEFS hasn't been upgraded to the new GFS physics yet. So that probably makes it more of an apples to pears comparison between the op and the ensemble now.

 

The ECMWF and EPS will certainly have misses (such as what it showed for Saturday just a couple nights ago) because it's still a computer modelling system, but it's by far superior and perhaps the gap has grown despite the large sums of money poured into the GFS.

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

As I said awhile back....its all fluff until it's inside of 48hrs showing the same solution on the euro plus 2 additional major models.  

Scoring in this pattern is like trying to get a rabbit pregnant by throwing it in a tumbling dryer with 10 other horny rabbits.   Sure it can happen but there's gonna be a lot more thump'n and bump'n before any hump'n.

Where do you come up w/ these!!! Love it!

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12 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The GFS has been atrocious all cool season. No reason yet to put much stock in it until more modeling supports it with next week's potential system. Today's 12z EPS has less members getting snow up this far north. Just have to hope the blind squirrel finds a nut this time.

 

Another note on GFS/GEFS: the GEFS has always been known to be inferior to the EPS because it has less members and it's too non-dispersive (runs too close to the operational). The "upgraded" GFS and the current iteration of the GEFS aren't even based off the same physics package, since the GEFS hasn't been upgraded to the new GFS physics yet. So that probably makes it more of an apples to pears comparison between the op and the ensemble now.

 

The ECMWF and EPS will certainly have misses (such as what it showed for Saturday just a couple nights ago) because it's still a computer modelling system, but it's by far superior and perhaps the gap has grown despite the large sums of money poured into the GFS.

 

 

 

 

What is your take on the Euro and its ensembles being notoriously dry with cold season precip in the cold sector of systems. Been noticing that since the upgrade before last winter.

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What is your take on the Euro and its ensembles being notoriously dry with cold season precip in the cold sector of systems. Been noticing that since the upgrade before last winter.
I haven't noticed it to be a significant issue, maybe with a few events, would have to collect some verification data to know for sure. The Euro was even too wet locally with some of the early season snow systems this year.

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17 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I haven't noticed it to be a significant issue, maybe with a few events, would have to collect some verification data to know for sure. The Euro was even too wet locally with some of the early season snow systems this year.

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Euro was way too dry with the November 11th snowstorm out this way, then again most models were.

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