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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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4 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Long ways off but it never gets old seeing big storms like that show up in the long range.  Luckily we have another 11 days to get that to trend a bit northwest. :P

Wavy-ass long wave pattern is gonna be generating all kinds of fantasy storms on the models.  Best advise is not to raise an eyebrow on any solution until the gfs, euro, and ggem all have the same thing inside 96 hrs....then you can do 2 eyebrows if it remains inside 48hrs.  :lol:

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4 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Euro won't "let go the bone" on a GOMEX Low next Friday

 

floop-ecmwf_full-2019120700.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.gif

The 12z Euro caved to the GFS, which literally takes the low right along the coast from Georgia to Maine, and also depicts a weak northern stream wave following it up through the Midwest.

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8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

A.  Snow band is tucked in pretty tight to the surface low on that depiction

B.  Can't believe I just commented on the 14 day GFS.

 The long range GFS was always good for laughs and nothing more, but even the ensembles in the long range of been absolutely terrible this season so far. Wild changes run to run. Really seems like we are going backwards instead of forwards in model land when it comes to accuracy.

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22 hours ago, IWXwx said:

The 12z Euro caved to the GFS, which literally takes the low right along the coast from Georgia to Maine, and also depicts a weak northern stream wave following it up through the Midwest.

Big Gulf to Lakes low is back on the 12z GFS.  

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Big Gulf to Lakes low is back on the 12z GFS.  

 

26 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Look's like a whole lot of rain.  

 

It is, followed by windy SHSN which even per the GFS's own output amounts to very little south of NMI snow belts. I wish the models would just quit already with the teases. 

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45 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Does look like a limited snow producer unfortunately, even if it does take that kind of track.  Models have been flip flopping on track though.  

I agree, no consistency. Euro has a coaster. 

I feel like models tend to underplay CAD in these type of events, especially this far out. We got a pretty decent pool of cold air near Hudson Bay and a departing PV. Let's see. 

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ENS finally showing changes...

Growing support for a neutral to - AO/NAO/PNA starting next weekend. MJO looks likely to head back into the COD, staying out of warmer phases. Add in the PV chunk that will take hold in the Hudson region.

Should lead to more cold shots and chances for snow...finally...for next week. Hopefully can get something going for a white Christmas.


.

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1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

ENS finally showing changes...

Growing support for a neutral to - AO/NAO/PNA starting next weekend. MJO looks likely to head back into the COD, staying out of warmer phases. Add in the PV chunk that will take hold in the Hudson region.

Should lead to more cold shots and chances for snow...finally...for next week. Hopefully can get something going for a white Christmas.


.

Most upbeat post from you I can remember. Must be the holidays!  :) :snowing:

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9 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

ENS finally showing changes...

Growing support for a neutral to - AO/NAO/PNA starting next weekend. MJO looks likely to head back into the COD, staying out of warmer phases. Add in the PV chunk that will take hold in the Hudson region.

Should lead to more cold shots and chances for snow...finally...for next week. Hopefully can get something going for a white Christmas.


.

 

1748656298_giphy(4).gif.ee49220fa77857b1ef41288868014ee8.gif

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13 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Curious to see what tonight's runs have to say about the  ~160 hour threat. At a minimum, the ICON plays ball. 

I am on board with that threat, which makes it like legally bound to happen.

In all seriousness, at least it looks like we are entering a pattern with more chances to snow.

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11 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I am on board with that threat, which makes it like legally bound to happen.

In all seriousness, at least it looks like we are entering a pattern with more chances to snow.

Could it really be any worse? Just going off climo at our latitude would fulfill that statement. But yeah, I agree, somebody's bound to score post-15th. Just tough to say who right now. 

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2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Could it really be any worse? Just going off climo at our latitude would fulfill that statement. But yeah, I agree, somebody's bound to score post-15th. Just tough to say who right now. 

Thar's one thing about living here in the hinterland of winter anxiety, getting hopes up is mea culpa.  But on the flip side if it does happen it's like a one night stand with the Lawrence Welk girls in a tub of olive oil :pimp:

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I'm more interested in the Saturday threat for now. Pretty complex setup but 00z Euro with a nice outcome for parts of northern IL into IA and WI. 06z EPS seems to favor farther north but hopefully some of us could score something, with possibility the next week threat ends up farther east.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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