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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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5 hours ago, MIstorm97 said:

Detroit needs 2.4” to break its all-time snowiest November record (11.8” in 1966). Might as well go for it this weekend considering all the other November snowfall records have been broken. 

So true, we have already broken so many November snow records this year. Lets go for monthly record too. If no more snow falls, we have already locked in 4th snowiest November (which was locked in by November 12th).

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6 hours ago, Baum said:

Let's see what the 18Z Euro shows.

Cold seems lacking, with the GEM on the colder end of the spectrum, and thus painting a much better system with nice snow swath. I'll be shocked if the others come around to it's solution tbh. This entire period to finish Nov and into the first week of Dec is looking too warm for most of us S and/or east of C Wisco. If we can get lucky and score, you'll know we are the favored zone for winter action. 

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11 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Just not for us further east. Nice Plains hit tho. 

Gonna be tough to get significant snow this far east I think.  Don't really see how we can finagle it to happen.  Maybe if there is some follow up piece of energy.

As currently modeled, it is reminiscent of some of the classic fall storms of years past.  Similarly deep and similar track.

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On 11/18/2019 at 11:49 AM, Chicago Storm said:

Looks like a mild and wet pattern could set up into at least early December.

Guidance has been trending towards a -PNA, along with a neutral to perhaps +NAO/AO.

Might be a delayed, but not denied kind of situation for indian summer.

Smells like a bust

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Yep, zero shortage of action going forward. Just get some cold infusions and all things winter will get rolling. Personally, I like winter to set in and stay. Not a fan of the 7-10 day blast, followed by 4-6 weeks of ho-hum. I'll make use of this pattern reload period to finish up my holiday decorating, then I'm ready to see more of these:

 

20191111 Snow Icon.png

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The look of a -NAO, -PNA and active sub-tropical jet would be very good for a lot of this sub-forum starting around the end of November (though intially may favor those in the northern half of it).  If the EPO drops after day 10 as the ensembles are trying to hint at that would eventually shift the baroclinic zone far enough south for the Ohio Valley to also get more in the game for early December. 

68C1FA40-7550-44BE-B821-1BE0F7C47BA1.thumb.png.f8f6ae84c33ee809fa03fa5ba948cb53.png

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