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Winter 2019-20 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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57 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I agree. 0z ECMWF had an interesting set-up. 

ecmwf.png.e6fd4b45979b8faa269723ebe3d234f7.png

 

12z Euro is a bit south.  Does manage to have a band of lake enhanced snow around here as 850 mb temps pushing -10C are cold enough to overcome the still relative bath water of Lake Michigan.

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15 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

..saved that for posterity. If only..

Yeah not holding my breath on that one... at least as far as something that deep.  :lol:

Just a general thought going forward this season... some of these extremely cold GFS runs have me wondering if we are going to see an extreme cold discharge into the CONUS at some point.  We had the extreme cold at the end of January this year and going back into the 1980s and 1990s, there are multiple cases of extreme cold getting into the Midwest in back to back winters or just skipping over 1 winter.  Heck there has already been some impressive cold especially out west.

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14 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah not holding my breath on that one... at least as far as something that deep.  :lol:

Just a general thought going forward this season... some of these extremely cold GFS runs have me wondering if we are going to see an extreme cold discharge into the CONUS at some point.  We had the extreme cold at the end of January this year and going back into the 1980s and 1990s, there are multiple cases of extreme cold getting into the Midwest in back to back winters or just skipping over 1 winter.  Heck there has already been some impressive cold especially out west.

Not sure if you're a fan of analogs or not, but most of the serious ones include such. Some, if you go way back would be on the historic/epic level. As you mentioned, we've already seen the all-time October low temp record set for the CONUS. Not to mention all those records from 1917 that Denver's been knocking off left and right. I personally feel there's a good shot at it. And I don't mean a 1 or 3 day PV swing-thru seen last January and in Jan 2014. 

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Just now, A-L-E-K said:

U said that already and u aren't even right

Oh really? A trough centered over the eastern lakes isn't a cold and dry pattern? That is news to me. Sure you could end up with a dusty clipper or two but that isn't a favorable pattern for this subforum unless you are downwind of the lakes.

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Just now, buckeye said:

Personal opinion , (and I'm sure not very popular here), but too early for this stuff.    I know there are some exceptions but doesn't a colder and snowier November pattern usually get followed by a mild and dry December?

It is very early for this kind of cold and suppression. Going from late summer to dead of winter with minimal snow isn't something appealing.

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Well, all this talk doesn’t matter anymore, since the 12z gfs lost the arctic outbreak. Sure, it’s still generally a bit colder than normal and therefore could open the door for a possible snow event...but the cold isn’t noteworthy. 
 

Obviously 492 dm thicknesses in the northern plains were overdone...but I expected a modest correction to 498 or 504...not 516. That’s a 15-20 degree difference in sensible weather. Plus, the angle of the cold is wrong now; too far east.

I guess we deserve this for looking at Day 7-9 op runs...but that’s what winter weenies (including me) look at in November. You would think Day 7-9 has some general predictability. If it were Day 10+, that’s different. 
 

Anyway, I suppose it’s best to give it a day or two and not jump off the train yet...but we’ll see. 

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9 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Well, all this talk doesn’t matter anymore, since the 12z gfs lost the arctic outbreak. Sure, it’s still generally a bit colder than normal and therefore could open the door for a possible snow event...but the cold isn’t noteworthy. 
 

Obviously 492 dm thicknesses in the northern plains were overdone...but I expected a modest correction to 498 or 504...not 516. That’s a 15-20 degree difference in sensible weather. Plus, the angle of the cold is wrong now; too far east.

I guess we deserve this for looking at Day 7-9 op runs...but that’s what winter weenies (including me) look at in November. You would think Day 7-9 has some general predictability. If it were Day 10+, that’s different. 
 

Anyway, I suppose it’s best to give it a day or two and not jump off the train yet...but we’ll see. 

Yeah I was surprised to see this much discussion on a GFS run this far out.  Think the Halloween event triggered some irrational thinking like if you had a first date with the head cheerleader in high school and she teased you into thinking the second date was going to be THE date lol.  Regardless I bought a bottle of my winter single barrel a little early this year just in case.  :tomato:

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1 hour ago, Jackstraw said:

Yeah I was surprised to see this much discussion on a GFS run this far out.  Think the Halloween event triggered some irrational thinking like if you had a first date with the head cheerleader in high school and she teased you into thinking the second date was going to be THE date lol.  Regardless I bought a bottle of my winter single barrel a little early this year just in case.  :tomato:

Yeah my posts were only in reference to the maps being posted not whether they'd verify. It isn't worth going that in depth on a day 10 forecast.

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14 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Not sure on other models, but 12z GFS definitely filled in the MichINDOH region nicely. 

 

20191104 12z gfs_total_snow_us_fh84_trend (1).gif

I like the pivotal map better. :snowing:

The wave that contributes to Thursday's snow is still in no man's land well north of Alaska so definitely could see some model shifting to come... hopefully for the better.

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