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WxWatcher007

Tropical Storm Nestor

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Large fetch of southerly tropical storm force winds will cause this to maximize water rise potential. I would think the 5 ft surge forecast could be increased somewhat with a 60-70 mph storm given the expanse of TS wind and the shape of the coastline. Wouldn't be surprised to see a storm just shy of hurricane intensity (given these pressure falls) making landfall, though it clearly will not be purely tropical.

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2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Large fetch of southerly tropical storm force winds will cause this to maximize water rise potential. I would think the 5 ft surge forecast could be increased somewhat with a 60-70 mph storm given the expanse of TS wind and the shape of the coastline. Wouldn't be surprised to see a storm just shy of hurricane intensity (given these pressure falls) making landfall, though it clearly will not be purely tropical.

Levi seems to concur in a tweet earlier -

 

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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE SYSTEM STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 90.0W
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

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10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 18
Location: 25.9°N 90.0°W
Moving: NE at 22 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

But still a Potential Tropical Storm...

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6 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 18
Location: 25.9°N 90.0°W
Moving: NE at 22 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

But still a Potential Tropical Storm...

that's odd...if winds are 60mph isn't it a TS?

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Per disco, look at the last sentence:

"The satellite presentation of the system features an area of very deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C within the eastern part of a rather broad and elongated surface circulation seen in visible satellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found flight-level winds as high as 72 kt and SFMR winds of 45-50 kt southeast of the ill-defined center, and based on these data the initial intensity is set to 50 kt. The NOAA aircraft also measured a pressure of around 1001 mb. While the cyclone has deepened, the circulation is still quite elongated and not well defined, so the system is maintained as a Potential Tropical Cyclone for now."

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk
 

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6 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 18
Location: 25.9°N 90.0°W
Moving: NE at 22 mph
Min pressure: 1001 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph

But still a Potential Tropical Storm...

The lack of naming the storm is sure to lead to complacency for those who should be preparing for a wind event 24 hours from now.  

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10 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

I was just 2 years old at the time, so I just looked it up, near identical look and track.e98b963c8dfafa39b06f62aa8db50e89.jpg3c734abedf1bc14a29ed339a53826f5f.jpg

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I was 14 and still working on getting into wx. Josephine taught me a lot about storm surge and how you don’t need a classic hurricane to wreck a coastline. 
 

bonus TWC coverage:

 

 

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It was trying but the convection keeps blowing that up.  Latest IR -
COD-GOES-East-meso-meso2_14.20191018.170708-108pm-longwave-ir-10182019.thumb.gif.077a7d0f8ae1b0d0e7d3e22f08f07f09.gif
Gotta love the difference between COD and TT... I got a tab open on both, is it possible it hits Cat 1 before landfall?210c79307d7cbdadf7b8fa1059a35386.jpg

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I guess it's conceivably possible it will reach hurricane strength without being designated as a TC?

Or jump straight to hurricane status. That would be kinda wonky. Not great from a communication perspective

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3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

I guess it's conceivably possible it will reach hurricane strength without being designated as a TC?

Or jump straight to hurricane status. That would be kinda wonky. Not great from a communication perspective

Which makes me think... we've had STS before -- Sub-Tropical Storms... have we ever has a STH?  A Sub-Tropical Hurricane?

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6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Gotta love the difference between COD and TT... I got a tab open on both, is it possible it hits Cat 1 before landfall?210c79307d7cbdadf7b8fa1059a35386.jpg

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk
 

This is like the most convection (lightning) that I have seen come out of one of these this summer!  It's just blowing up! :yikes:

https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#m=oss;t=3;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;ts=0;z=6;y=24.896;x=-86.6052;d=2;dl=8;dc=0;

Screenshot_2019-10-18 Real Time Lightning Map.png

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Which makes me think... we've had STS before -- Sub-Tropical Storms... have we ever has a STH?  A Sub-Tropical Hurricane?
That will be opening a can of worms I believe the NHC would not want to open... Ala Superstorm Sandy and every powerful hurricane going post tropical/Nor'easter...

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

That will be opening a can of worms I believe the NHC would not want to open... Ala Superstorm Sandy and every powerful hurricane going post tropical/Nor'easter...

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk
 

Quick research (on Wiki) shows its happened twice before --  first was in 1968 and named as Subtropical Storm One -- reached max winds of 80 mph and minimum pressure reached was 979 mb -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1968_Atlantic_hurricane_season

Second was also named Subtropical Storm One, but this time in 1979 -- reached max winds of 75 mph and minimum pressure reached was 980 mb -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Atlantic_hurricane_season

 

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

That will be opening a can of worms I believe the NHC would not want to open... Ala Superstorm Sandy and every powerful hurricane going post tropical/Nor'easter...

Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk
 

Lorenzo was still a pretty strong hurricane that became a post-tropical cyclone (with hurricane-force winds) pretty late in its life and almost all the way to Ireland.

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4 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Lorenzo was still a pretty strong hurricane that became a post-tropical cyclone (with hurricane-force winds) pretty late in its life and almost all the way to Ireland.

Correct... but NHC is stating that this would be either TS or STS before landfall along the Eastern GOM... I was just wondering if NHC says its sub-tropical, if we ever had a hurricane designated as such -- and it looks like we have had 2 - but those were more than 40 years ago.  Just would seem weird to say we have a Sub-Tropical Hurricane heading for NW FL

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As expected given recon and IR, Nestor is born. 
 

ETA: also, Nestor is hauling. When was the last time we saw a Gulf storm move like this. We’ve seen so many slow movers in the Atlantic recently.

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35 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Uhhh.... Is that an eye trying to form on the WV image?91d8c30374dc7d60ff0921ed29d1aa75.jpg

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No, the center is well to the west of this blow-up.

This is a heavily sheared TS with a weak low but the divergent flow is helping create a lot of convection which is causing some strong surface winds on the E/SE side. 

Doubt it gets any better organized than this before landfall. 

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