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WxWatcher007

Tropical Storm Nestor

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Time to fire up a thread. 
 

Latest from the NHC:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continue to
show signs of organization.  Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or
subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the
system moves generally northeastward over the western Gulf of
Mexico.  The low is forecast to approach the northern or
northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and regardless of
development, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and rough
surf over those areas.  Locally heavy rainfall is also possible
across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and this
weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast
should monitor the progress of this system.  For more information
about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf of Mexico,
see products issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of
the National Hurricane Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Major models all show development and the Euro has been more robust near the coast. I buy it given the data I’ve seen via ASCAT so far showing a lower level trying to establish itself under deeper convection.

Longer term eventual track TBD.

ETA: Euro ensembles 

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Probably only has about 48 hours until landfall early this weekend... I don't think it will reach hurricane status, but strong TS sounds about right

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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 95.7W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama
border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to
the Mouth of the Pearl River.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to
Yankeetown, Florida.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to
Clearwater, Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
* Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Indian Pass to Clearwater, Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 22.4 North, longitude 95.7 West.  The system is moving
toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h).  A turn toward the northeast
is expected this afternoon or tonight, and a northeastward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday.  On
the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf
coast Friday and Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening
then expected through Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by late Friday, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

A complicated weather situation is evolving in the Gulf of Mexico.
The circulation associated with the tropical disturbance over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico is getting better defined, and the
associated convection is getting better organized.  However, a
strong mid- to upper-level trough is moving eastward across
southern Texas and northern Mexico, and a frontal system is present
over the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  The ECMWF and
GFS models suggest that the trough will spawn a low along the
front, with the tropical disturbance merging with that low.  On the
other hand, the UKMET suggests the tropical disturbance will become
the primary low pressure system.  Either way, it is likely that a
low pressure area with gale-force winds and at least some tropical
cyclone characteristics will move northeastward and affect
portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next 36-48 h.  Based
on this, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical cyclone
Sixteen, and coastal tropical cyclone and storm surge
watches/warnings are being issued.

The system should track generally northeastward in the southern
portion of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the track model
guidance is in reasonably good agreement through 96 h.  The forecast
track lies a little to the south of the model consensus, as the
UKMET has a somewhat more southerly track.  The forecast track
brings the system across the southeastern United States between
48-72 h, and then has it moving into the Atlantic east of the
mid-Atlantic States.

Gradual strengthening is expected as strong upper-level
divergence caused by the trough partly prevails over strong
vertical shear.  Thus, the intensity forecast calls for gradual
strengthening along the lines of that in the global models. It is
unlikely, though, that the system will develop into a classical
tropical cyclone.  The system is expected to be fully extratropical
by 48 h, with gradual weakening expected after that time.

Regardless of the exact evolution of this weather system, portions
of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong
winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday.
Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Dangerous storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground
level is possible along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to
Clearwater, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in
these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical storm force winds are likely along portions of the
north-central and northeastern Gulf Coast where tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track
and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area,
especially east of the center, and begin well in advance of the
arrival of the center.

3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical
characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/1500Z 22.4N  95.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  18/0000Z 23.7N  94.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
 24H  18/1200Z 25.8N  91.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 28.5N  88.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 30.9N  85.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  20/1200Z 35.5N  77.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  21/1200Z 37.5N  70.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  22/1200Z 38.0N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Judging by vis satellite alone, thinking it gets upgraded to a TD or minimal TS at 5 pm. Slightly more confidence in the latter....

How do you see that? Not to be rude.

I think NHC jumped the gun even calling this potential  Sixteen. 

Granted there may be a warm core LLC capable/possibly producing TD status  winds. With the stationary front draped across the N. GOM and southern FL.

This is nothing but the beginning of the surface low accompanied with the ULL trough. 

Yesterday there were  troughs along the boundary in the Southern GOM.

Clearly looking at this via satellite. Will not last long before transition. 

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They talk about it possibly becoming a subtropical storm, and that had me wondering if there has ever been a designated subtropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico? The only ones I can recall seeing on maps of past seasons were in the west-central Atlantic. 

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22 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

They talk about it possibly becoming a subtropical storm, and that had me wondering if there has ever been a designated subtropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico? The only ones I can recall seeing on maps of past seasons were in the west-central Atlantic. 

Exactly.  I don't recall  a subtropical  system ever in the GOM.  

I recall MCS (thunderstorm system) entering from land becoming TC. But not a subtropical. 

Especially this time of year and hot as the GOM is.

It could happen.  But not likely imo.

Liable to see a very powerful mid cyclone given the upper levels atm.

But too much shear atm for a TC or Sub TC... just my 2 cents.  What we are probably seeing in the surface low  accompanied by the UL trough. 

 

That's a huge ULL over TX atm.

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Here is some of MOB’s thoughts.


.SHORT TERM /Tomorrow Night through Saturday/...The upper- and lower-
level circulation centers become vertically stacked by tomorrow
evening and then the upper trough actually opens up as it outruns
the surface low Friday night. The surface low nears landfall
somewhere in the western FL Panhandle between Destin and
Apalachicola, FL (in this general area) Saturday morning. Latest
guidance has trended a few hours later. Some members are still a bit
west and some are a bit east, but this is the latest thinking. As
mentioned above rain ends from the west on Saturday as the cyclonic
wrap-around rainshield translates eastward with the mid- and upper
portion of the system. /23 JMM




.

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2 hours ago, FLweather said:

How do you see that? Not to be rude.

I think NHC jumped the gun even calling this potential  Sixteen. 

Granted there may be a warm core LLC capable/possibly producing TD status  winds. With the stationary front draped across the N. GOM and southern FL.

This is nothing but the beginning of the surface low accompanied with the ULL trough. 

Yesterday there were  troughs along the boundary in the Southern GOM.

Clearly looking at this via satellite. Will not last long before transition. 

There’s clearly a very broad area of surface low pressure. The area of convection furthest to the southwest seemed to be organizing faster than the other areas of disturbed weather. There’s a textbook reference on what TC’s look like on vis satellite at various stages of development. I couldn’t find it, though much of it is in my head...On vis it appeared to me that this area was beginning to predominate, but it looks less organized now than when I posted. Apparently I jumped the gun. I was wrong.

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7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

There’s clearly a very broad area of surface low pressure. The area of convection furthest to the southwest seemed to be organizing faster than the other areas of disturbed weather. There’s a textbook reference on what TC’s look like on vis satellite at various stages of development. I couldn’t find it, though much of it is in my head...On vis it appeared to me that this area was beginning to predominate, but it looks less organized now than when I posted. Apparently I jumped the gun. I was wrong.

No worries. 

We will have to see how this plays out. 

Not even the models. Time is running out though.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162019
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND WILL LIKELY BE A
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 92.5W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida
* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 24 to 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.3 North, longitude 92.5 West. The system is moving toward the
northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h).  A northeastward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast
later today and tonight, and then move over portions of the
southeastern United States on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
subtropical storm later today, and a slow strengthening is then
anticipated. An Air Force plane will investigate the disturbance
again in a few hours.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
to the north and east of the possible center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft
Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area by later today, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.

Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast
of the southeastern United States by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf
Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas,
with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
 

 

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Flying down to KFLL tonight for a short trip. Thinking impacts along the SE FL coast should be minimal. A bit more concerned about my return flight on Sunday afternoon out of KPBI.

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