WxWatcher007 Posted October 17, 2019 Time to fire up a thread. Latest from the NHC: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico continue to show signs of organization. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight while the system moves generally northeastward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The low is forecast to approach the northern or northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and regardless of development, the system is likely to produce gusty winds and rough surf over those areas. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and this weekend. Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf coast should monitor the progress of this system. For more information about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf of Mexico, see products issued by the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the National Hurricane Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Major models all show development and the Euro has been more robust near the coast. I buy it given the data I’ve seen via ASCAT so far showing a lower level trying to establish itself under deeper convection. Longer term eventual track TBD. ETA: Euro ensembles Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted October 17, 2019 Probably only has about 48 hours until landfall early this weekend... I don't think it will reach hurricane status, but strong TS sounds about right 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NavarreDon Posted October 17, 2019 Thinking NHC will have to pull the trigger by the 10:00 CDT update due to the timeline....thoughts?. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted October 17, 2019 Thinking NHC will have to pull the trigger by the 10:00 CDT update due to the timeline....thoughts?.They did Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted October 17, 2019 Interesting... no TS Warning for any part of MS but there's one in LA and AL/FL Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted October 17, 2019 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 95.7W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to Clearwater, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida * Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Clearwater, Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 95.7 West. The system is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight, and a northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf coast Friday and Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening then expected through Friday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by late Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted October 17, 2019 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019 A complicated weather situation is evolving in the Gulf of Mexico. The circulation associated with the tropical disturbance over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is getting better defined, and the associated convection is getting better organized. However, a strong mid- to upper-level trough is moving eastward across southern Texas and northern Mexico, and a frontal system is present over the northern and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF and GFS models suggest that the trough will spawn a low along the front, with the tropical disturbance merging with that low. On the other hand, the UKMET suggests the tropical disturbance will become the primary low pressure system. Either way, it is likely that a low pressure area with gale-force winds and at least some tropical cyclone characteristics will move northeastward and affect portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next 36-48 h. Based on this, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical cyclone Sixteen, and coastal tropical cyclone and storm surge watches/warnings are being issued. The system should track generally northeastward in the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the track model guidance is in reasonably good agreement through 96 h. The forecast track lies a little to the south of the model consensus, as the UKMET has a somewhat more southerly track. The forecast track brings the system across the southeastern United States between 48-72 h, and then has it moving into the Atlantic east of the mid-Atlantic States. Gradual strengthening is expected as strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough partly prevails over strong vertical shear. Thus, the intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening along the lines of that in the global models. It is unlikely, though, that the system will develop into a classical tropical cyclone. The system is expected to be fully extratropical by 48 h, with gradual weakening expected after that time. Regardless of the exact evolution of this weather system, portions of the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar impacts are expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States Saturday and Sunday. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation of up to 5 feet above ground level is possible along the Florida Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are likely along portions of the north-central and northeastern Gulf Coast where tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area, especially east of the center, and begin well in advance of the arrival of the center. 3. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 22.4N 95.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 18/0000Z 23.7N 94.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 18/1200Z 25.8N 91.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 28.5N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 30.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 20/1200Z 35.5N 77.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 21/1200Z 37.5N 70.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1200Z 38.0N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted October 17, 2019 Lucky me I get the centerSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Seminole Posted October 17, 2019 12Z GFS has 60 mph TS landfall near Port St. Joe. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Solak Posted October 17, 2019 It sure is going to cover quite a bit of distance between Sat morning and Sun morning! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
olafminesaw Posted October 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, Solak said: It sure is going to cover quite a bit of distance between Sat morning and Sun morning! About 550 miles at 23 mph. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
beanskip Posted October 17, 2019 Anybody having trouble with HMON and HWRF on Tidbits? 12z runs should have started by now, right? Any other source for those? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ethan80963 Posted October 17, 2019 20 minutes ago, beanskip said: Anybody having trouble with HMON and HWRF on Tidbits? 12z runs should have started by now, right? Any other source for those? Weather Nerds has it https://www.weathernerds.org/models/hwrf01.html 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Seminole Posted October 17, 2019 12Z Euro showing a 994 MB TS near Fort Walton 8:00 AM EST. Saturday. GFS and Euro in good agreement with intensity and timing but 120 mile spread. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jbenedet Posted October 17, 2019 Judging by vis satellite alone, thinking it gets upgraded to a TD or minimal TS at 5 pm. Slightly more confidence in the latter.... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FLweather Posted October 17, 2019 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: Judging by vis satellite alone, thinking it gets upgraded to a TD or minimal TS at 5 pm. Slightly more confidence in the latter.... How do you see that? Not to be rude. I think NHC jumped the gun even calling this potential Sixteen. Granted there may be a warm core LLC capable/possibly producing TD status winds. With the stationary front draped across the N. GOM and southern FL. This is nothing but the beginning of the surface low accompanied with the ULL trough. Yesterday there were troughs along the boundary in the Southern GOM. Clearly looking at this via satellite. Will not last long before transition. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Roger Smith Posted October 17, 2019 They talk about it possibly becoming a subtropical storm, and that had me wondering if there has ever been a designated subtropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico? The only ones I can recall seeing on maps of past seasons were in the west-central Atlantic. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FLweather Posted October 17, 2019 22 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: They talk about it possibly becoming a subtropical storm, and that had me wondering if there has ever been a designated subtropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico? The only ones I can recall seeing on maps of past seasons were in the west-central Atlantic. Exactly. I don't recall a subtropical system ever in the GOM. I recall MCS (thunderstorm system) entering from land becoming TC. But not a subtropical. Especially this time of year and hot as the GOM is. It could happen. But not likely imo. Liable to see a very powerful mid cyclone given the upper levels atm. But too much shear atm for a TC or Sub TC... just my 2 cents. What we are probably seeing in the surface low accompanied by the UL trough. That's a huge ULL over TX atm. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FLweather Posted October 17, 2019 So far recon shows potential of 3 areas. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NavarreDon Posted October 17, 2019 Here is some of MOB’s thoughts. .SHORT TERM /Tomorrow Night through Saturday/...The upper- and lower-level circulation centers become vertically stacked by tomorrowevening and then the upper trough actually opens up as it outrunsthe surface low Friday night. The surface low nears landfallsomewhere in the western FL Panhandle between Destin andApalachicola, FL (in this general area) Saturday morning. Latestguidance has trended a few hours later. Some members are still a bitwest and some are a bit east, but this is the latest thinking. Asmentioned above rain ends from the west on Saturday as the cyclonicwrap-around rainshield translates eastward with the mid- and upperportion of the system. /23 JMM. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jbenedet Posted October 17, 2019 2 hours ago, FLweather said: How do you see that? Not to be rude. I think NHC jumped the gun even calling this potential Sixteen. Granted there may be a warm core LLC capable/possibly producing TD status winds. With the stationary front draped across the N. GOM and southern FL. This is nothing but the beginning of the surface low accompanied with the ULL trough. Yesterday there were troughs along the boundary in the Southern GOM. Clearly looking at this via satellite. Will not last long before transition. There’s clearly a very broad area of surface low pressure. The area of convection furthest to the southwest seemed to be organizing faster than the other areas of disturbed weather. There’s a textbook reference on what TC’s look like on vis satellite at various stages of development. I couldn’t find it, though much of it is in my head...On vis it appeared to me that this area was beginning to predominate, but it looks less organized now than when I posted. Apparently I jumped the gun. I was wrong. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
FLweather Posted October 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: There’s clearly a very broad area of surface low pressure. The area of convection furthest to the southwest seemed to be organizing faster than the other areas of disturbed weather. There’s a textbook reference on what TC’s look like on vis satellite at various stages of development. I couldn’t find it, though much of it is in my head...On vis it appeared to me that this area was beginning to predominate, but it looks less organized now than when I posted. Apparently I jumped the gun. I was wrong. No worries. We will have to see how this plays out. Not even the models. Time is running out though. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
arlwx Posted October 18, 2019 Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019 ...DISTURBANCE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND WILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.3N 92.5W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to Yankeetown Florida * Grand Isle Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Indian Pass Florida to Clearwater Beach Florida A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 24 to 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 92.5 West. The system is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf Coast later today and tonight, and then move over portions of the southeastern United States on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm later today, and a slow strengthening is then anticipated. An Air Force plane will investigate the disturbance again in a few hours. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to the north and east of the possible center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Chassahowitzka FL...3 to 5 ft Chassahowitzka to Clearwater Beach FL...2 to 4 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Gale-force winds are possible along portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States by Saturday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches this weekend from the central Gulf Coast and northern and central Florida to the eastern Carolinas, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Seminole Posted October 18, 2019 Almost Hurricane intensity right over Mexico Beach. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted October 18, 2019 Interesting... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cptcatz Posted October 18, 2019 24 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Interesting... Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Laymans terms? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted October 18, 2019 Laymans terms?Almost hurricane strength flight-level winds, weak TS surface level. Winds have not mixed down yetSent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
NJwx85 Posted October 18, 2019 Flying down to KFLL tonight for a short trip. Thinking impacts along the SE FL coast should be minimal. A bit more concerned about my return flight on Sunday afternoon out of KPBI. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Orangeburgwx Posted October 18, 2019 If it is already 50kts (60mph) that will be WAY ahead of schedule and above the maximum wind speed on the NHC 5am disco (which was only 50mph...) Sent from my SM-S327VL using Tapatalk Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
