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Mid October 2019 Bombogensis Coastal


Ginx snewx
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Just now, dendrite said:

That mesolow was pretty well modeled. Heading right for the CT/RI border.

Major, major kudos to models for sniffing that out and being consistent with it as well. I feel like models have gotten much better with this particular feature over the past several years with model upgrades 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

I haven’t had any wind here all night...where’s the Sting Jet?   Very run of the mill here.  Steady moderate rain all evening...but nothing impressive so far.   Looks like the coast is where it’s at, as we thought. 

Your winds will come well after midnight.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

 

Downslope wind progs seem to line up with this narrow line lacking echos on the western side of the Spine.... wonder if someone is going to get lit up further south towards RUT and DDH.

x8nixtL.gif

Starting to hear that howl through the woods and little window rattle...picked up alot on the past 20-30 mins.

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Update: Previous forecast matching up with current expectations so no wholesale changes with this. Watching some rotating convective elements on KOKX radar but as these features move north into the cool sector lose their rotational features. Any severe storms will hinge on how far north warm sector can track. SPC mesoanalysis shows 0-3km CAPE remaining south of Long Island and this seems reasonable with offshore buoys in the warm sector with winds veering more to the SSE and dew pts well into the 60s. Mesoanalysis indicates secondary low bombing out near Sandy Hook NJ with pressure down to about 986 mb. However a meso low appears to be forming farther to the southeast well offshore. This meso low may pinch off warm sector and preclude better instability from advecting north. This would lower the probability of severe storms here overnight but can`t discount the risk given mesoscale processes in play here and associated low predictability. Thus will continue to monitor low top convection as it comes onshore into CT/RI and southeast MA overnight.

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