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Mid October 2019 Bombogensis Coastal


Ginx snewx
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I believe the wind threat is going to be quite high between 9z and 15z Thursday morning, which is 5 am to 10 am across the Cape and Islands as the 925mb low level jet winds crank to over 105mph during this time as which a slight tornado risk window is open.  Mesolow/mesocyclone threat increases in this window as well.  However, unsure what the inversion heights will be and whether or not the marine layer inflow will inhibit the storm formation along the front.

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3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I believe the wind threat is going to be quite high between 9z and 15z Thursday morning, which is 5 am to 10 am across the Cape and Islands as the 925mb low level jet winds crank to over 105mph during this time as which a slight tornado risk window is open.  Mesolow/mesocyclone threat increases in this window as well.  However, unsure what the inversion heights will be and whether or not the marine layer inflow will inhibit the storm formation along the front.

That’d be 4am-10am James. 

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2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I'm kind of surprised how light the wind is right now.  Had a stiff breeze earlier but now the wind is really light.  Noted Keene NH past hour had calm winds.  Guess no strong high pressure to the north is the reason.

I'm still not buying the huge winds (until we kiss the backside later overnight) outside of any convective elements. The rain is going to further stabilize the column (especially llvls) and like forky has mentioned a few times, the llvl lapse rates are garbage...including 2-6 km lapse rates. Outside of perhaps the extreme outer Cape, the LLJ likely isn't going to strengthen that much more than it is now...which is there is little momentum  transfer doesn't matter much if it did anyways. 

The real winds will come from the pressure gradient which we get to experience as this undergoes bombogenesis as its lifting through New England (the backside winds!)

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

HRRR has a meso forming SW of ACK with high winds to the East that all rotates thru Cape Cod slams Scooter all the way up the Maine coast. Possible seiche in the Gulf Of Maine.  

It has been very consistent with this has some other models. This is the best chance for really good winds and across these areas. 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just offshore Plymouth Mass, sustained 50. Impressive sounding.  

download (38).png

Wow that's pretty impressive. They're going to rip like crazy for a brief time should this verify...thankfully it should be brief otherwise power issues would be pretty significant. Heck...even brief duration of these winds would do a number 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Ryan knows. You’ll regret debbies 

We'll gust 35-45 mph easily with the backside winds but I don't think we see those associated with the rain or convection 

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