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Mid October 2019 Bombogensis Coastal


Ginx snewx
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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

So just some garden variety rain and breezy conditions at best...right?  

Heh. 
not sure it’s a good idea to allow one’s self to be wrangled into day 5 precision impact calls ... :)

I’m inclined to think less impact given these unilateral model scenarios of the system moving at like 70 miles an hour bulk velocity… It’s a zygote circulation south of Long Island and it’s deepening as it’s passing ... at an impressive rate yes, but it’s borderline whether it’s in time to really impact southern New England. I’d say the greatest impact is the upper coast of Maine up to Nova Scotia and so forth given the present modeling tenor

Heights are too high from Texas well prior being ejected out of the West, out  along the gulf coast/Florida/adjacent southwest Atlantic basin. This whole amplitude is kind of like a rock skipping off a pond - spatial metaphor

 

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Thanks Nostradamus. I know more about fluid mechanics than you I can promise you that, on paper and in practice 

I’m sure you do. 

fast flows are physically prohibitive of blocking. Unfortunately resumes aside that principal exist regardless of whether we want to believe it or not

Navier-Stokes for the “wind”

Ha!

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m sure you do. 

fast flows are physically prohibitive of blocking. Unfortunately resumes aside that principal exist regardless of whether we want to believe it or not

Navier-Stokes for the “wind”

Ha!

How the heck do you "know" what the flow will be like in 2.5 months is my point. You don't, you are making a guess. 

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

How the heck do you "know" what the flow will be like in 2.5 months is my point. You don't, you are making a guess. 

Well .. obviously.  But it’s an educated guess, One based upon classic meteorological principles combined with empirical trend analysis - the latter of which spans two decades now; and as such, both converging on a very possible predominating winter characteristic

It’s hilarious… People seem to ignore and/or want to battle this concept yet the instant the hemisphere tries to cool off from the north south what’s the first thing that happens? we get a storm developing moving at ludicrous speed amid a cosmic jet - right out of the gates right out of the gates.  Nice 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well .. obviously.  But it’s an educated guess, One based upon classic meteorological principles combined with empirical trend analysis - the latter of which spans two decades now; and as such, both converging on a very possible predominating winter characteristic

Good luck, like I said 50 50 shot. Funny thing is a couple of transient blocks is all that's required. 2 snowiest decades of my life with your fast flow with literally 10s of blockbuster crawlers

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20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Good luck, like I said 50 50 shot. Funny thing is a couple of transient blocks is all that's required. 2 snowiest decades of my life with your fast flow with literally 10s of blockbuster crawlers

What does any of that and your snow experience have to do with fast flow? 

u seem to be taking some kind of exception to the notion of a fast flow like you don’t want it to happen ...?more than analyzing objectively/considering weather can so I’m done with this conversation. 
 


 

 

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

What does any of that and your snow experience have to do with fast flow? 

u seem to be taking some kind of exception to the notion of a fast flow like you don’t want it to happen ...?more than analyzing objectively/considering weather can so I’m done with this conversation. 
 


 

 

I have zero problems with people forecasting fast flow a week to 10 days out, 2.5 months is voodoo but lets get back on topic.  Helluva subsume off the NJ coast

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What does any of that and your snow experience have to do with fast flow? 

u seem to be taking some kind of exception to the notion of a fast flow like you don’t want it to happen ...?more than analyzing objectively/considering weather can so I’m done with this conversation. 
 


 

 

Well,  it does seem like we have been discussing "fast flow" as the current paradigm for quite a while now.  More than just 2019. 

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM has some sort of accelerated jet or stinger on south side of low. 110kts at 925? :lol: 

Just from looking at the 500 mb evolution it almost looks like -I thought - convective feedback at first and then the low gets relayed into the troughs quasi-g forcing.  
 
The other aspect is that the entire structure this thing is much slower than the global models in this run

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19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM has some sort of accelerated jet or stinger on south side of low. 110kts at 925? :lol: 

That jet on all models is extreme, the NAM incorporates it unlike the others at 18Z although the Euro did at 12 Z. As pointed out earlier in this thread that jet is a huge player

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2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Maybe the models begin to pick on faster flow and this misses phasing.  I'm not interested in 2-3" of rain so weenies on Nantucket can see tropical force gusts. Not that I have a choice of course.  

Seems clear to me the “models” already have. 

this particular run of this model appears to be an outlier solution fwiw. Things can change if the others come around. My guess is they’re going to have similar solutions though if not tonight theyll go back to it

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