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“Let’s Talk Winter”


Steve
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3 hours ago, buckeye said:

Speaking of Cincy futility.....:yikes:

 

Snip-it_1579444721273.jpg

Snow equals views/memberships. 

Whether it's wxbell or all these other youtube forecasts, they know the viewer base. And if there's enough evidence to show above average snow, they're gonna push that.

Unfortunately, rarely will these folks show the evidence of why winter could be another dud.

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Futility looks to continue into February.  If it's going to be this bad, might as well root for a top 5 most sh**tastic winter of all time. I can easily see February being warm and snowless too.  Ohio will probably have a cold spring that immediately turns to summer- so like every year. 

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14 hours ago, chuckster2012 said:

Winter's not even 1/3 over yet...  

Doesn’t  really matter....no snow and no cold in the foreseeable future!! We really only have 4 good weeks left...you can have the March snows which usually melts in two days..

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14 hours ago, chuckster2012 said:

Winter's not even 1/3 over yet...  

When the months of December and January are a dumpster fire....the winter WILL suck regardless of what percentage of met winter we are through.   It would take a FEB '10 combined with a March '08 to salvage the winter at this point.

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Fluffy dusting down here this morning....should qualify as a trace...not sure if KCVG saw the same. LOL!

Pattern has to flip at some point...Down here, Feb is our snowiest month. I can take that without the brutal cold that Jan can produce....... I know the lack of snow is frustrating...but at least it's not the cold is too strong and the storm tracks are south-- that's the worst.

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On 1/11/2020 at 8:03 PM, Spartman said:

We may very well be going into February still with single-digit snowfall totals so far this season. Still sitting at a snowfall total of 7 inches as of December 16, 2019.

So far this month, only a trace of snow was recorded just a week ago. 

Dayton's Top 10 Least Snowiest Januaries:
1. None - 1944
2. Trace - 2020 (currently, as of January 4th)
2 (Tied). - Trace - 1933
2 (Tied). - Trace - 1932
5. 0.1" - 1989
6. 0.2" - 1923
7. 0.4" - 1916
8. 0.7" - 1950
8 (Tied). - 0.7" - 1919
10. 0.9" - 1908
 

As of January 19th, a recording of 0.3 inches now places Dayton for the 6th least snowiest January on record.
Dayton's Top 10 Least Snowiest Januaries:
1. None - 1944
2. Trace - 1933
2 (Tied). - Trace - 1932
4. 0.1" - 1989
5. 0.2" - 1923
6. 0.3" - 2020 (currently, as of January 19th)

7. 0.4" - 1916
8. 0.7" - 1950
8 (Tied). - 0.7" - 1919
10. 0.9" - 1908

Also as of January 19th-20th, Cincinnati now ties for the least snowiest January on record with only trace amounts.

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1 hour ago, buckeye said:

Yet another indicator of this miserable winter,

Last year on this date, the "Let's Talk Winter" thread was 47 pages long :lol:

Gotta admit, I kinda miss talking to the Ohio gang about incoming ... :(

Yeah, this winter really laid an egg. I miss talking winter weather too as I always look forward to this time of year. 

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3 hours ago, buckeye said:

Yet another indicator of this miserable winter,

Last year on this date, the "Let's Talk Winter" thread was 47 pages long :lol:

Gotta admit, I kinda miss talking to the Ohio gang about incoming ... :(

And one more....when its January 22nd and the coldest temperature of the season to date occurred on November 13th.

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Woke up to a few of the models showing a thread the needle, perfectly timed, potential snow(s) in the 7-10 day.

Don't buy it folks!  It's a head fake.   Indices continue to suck as far as the eye can see.  In fact some are trending even worse then they were.  MJO travels from COD out into 6, raging +AO, +EPO, +NAO, -PNA.

***warning*** if JB talk offends you stop reading now.

JB is now sounding like one of us.  He showed some of the ens snow maps and actually said, "they've done this before and have been wrong all season, I don't trust them".   Shocking coming from him.  Looks like he's finally cried uncle to Old Man Winter :lol:

 

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21 hours ago, iluvsnow said:

And one more....when its January 22nd and the coldest temperature of the season to date occurred on November 13th.

wow.... can you imagine if that holds?   I actually hope it does, that would be one of the most insane stats I can recall.   I imagine that applies for a lot of locations in OH, IN, and possibly MI too.

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And last winter wasn’t great snow wise...but we had some real cold periods!!

On 1/22/2020 at 8:01 AM, buckeye said:

Yet another indicator of this miserable winter,

Last year on this date, the "Let's Talk Winter" thread was 47 pages long :lol:

Gotta admit, I kinda miss talking to the Ohio gang about incoming ... :(

This has got to be In the top 10 worse winters... no cold no snow....:axe:

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On 1/26/2020 at 2:31 PM, Steve said:

And last winter wasn’t great snow wise...but we had some real cold periods!!

This has got to be In the top 10 worse winters... no cold no snow....:axe:

Agree.  Even the torchy winters of past at least had the torching.   This has been never-ending stretches of damp, gray, cold....just not cold enough for snow.  Throw in the perpetual mirage of a 10day snowstorm on the models and it's more salt in the wound.   I feel bad for the businesses who hope, if not count on, snow removal work.   Just horrible all around.

#nightmare-winter    

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4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

And waaay too warm. Hard to believe that's a mid-winter scenario :rolleyes:

that's crazy....in a NORMAL winter, beginning of February, that right there would be blizzard for Indy.

Today JB actually said if the MJO forecast verifies, (taking it out of the COD into the 4.5.6 tour schedule again), he was going to 'throw in the towel" on winter.   Exact words. I never heard him say such a thing.  Usually he goes down kicking and screaming and making things up to spin something, anything, out of nothing.   Even the great meterological illusionist himself, can't save the weenies this winter.

On this one he's right.   MJO and EPO still look horrible.  Our, (meaning I-70 crew), only hope is a perfectly timed sag in the boundary with a low moving up from the southern plains.   Everything would have to be perfect...timing...strength of low, etc.   Too strong and it goes to Chicago, too weak and it's a strung out rainer.    

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Just now, buckeye said:

that's crazy....in a NORMAL winter, beginning of February, that right there would be blizzard for Indy.

Today JB actually said if the MJO forecast verifies, (taking it out of the COD into the 4.5.6 tour schedule again), he was going to 'throw in the towel" on winter.   Exact words. I never heard him say such a thing.  Usually he goes down kicking and screaming and making things up to spin something, anything, out of nothing.   Even the great meterological illusionist himself, can't save the weenies this winter.

On this one he's right.   MJO and EPO still look horrible.  Our, (meaning I-70 crew), only hope is a perfectly timed sag in the boundary with a low moving up from the southern plains.   Everything would have to be perfect...timing...strength of low, etc.   Too strong and it goes to Chicago, too weak and it's a strung out rainer.    

I have to admit it looks better for us than you, but it looks better for you than jbs i95 fanclub.  He always has an extreme east coast bias and I will admit, it's not looking as good for them, so I'm sure throwing in the towel refers to the East Coast. It is still strange to hear him admit that though lol.

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5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

that's crazy....in a NORMAL winter, beginning of February, that right there would be blizzard for Indy.

Today JB actually said if the MJO forecast verifies, (taking it out of the COD into the 4.5.6 tour schedule again), he was going to 'throw in the towel" on winter.   Exact words. I never heard him say such a thing.  Usually he goes down kicking and screaming and making things up to spin something, anything, out of nothing.   Even the great meterological illusionist himself, can't save the weenies this winter.

On this one he's right.   MJO and EPO still look horrible.  Our, (meaning I-70 crew), only hope is a perfectly timed sag in the boundary with a low moving up from the southern plains.   Everything would have to be perfect...timing...strength of low, etc.   Too strong and it goes to Chicago, too weak and it's a strung out rainer.    

Early on, iirc, his top analogs included 13-14, 14-15, & 18-19 (way back in August perhaps). His inner weenie got the better of him and he kept running with the coldest of that trio (for our region at least) when he'd have done best to hug an even warmer version of 18-19.  As autumn progressed he went bolder with the colder, dragging up 92-93 & 02-03 weenie winter analogs for his region especially. Personally I would've preferred that he was correct and it was a colder if not epic snowy DJF here. 

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4 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have to admit it looks better for us than you, but it looks better for you than jbs i95 fanclub.  He always has an extreme east coast bias and I will admit, it's not looking as good for them, so I'm sure throwing in the towel refers to the East Coast. It is still strange to hear him admit that though lol.

JB: I am convinced that the MJO and EPO control the pattern when they are amplified, The warm phase rotation of the MJO spawned the positive EPO which destroys NAMER cold. In spite of an undercutting trough in the means, the third in the series of underachieving troughs overall passes off the east coast this weekend, and not only does it produce almost nothing, but its followed by a blow torch

The latest MJO forecast has the modeling sniffing warm phases

if it gets into those favors, the EPO will likely shift back positive

If that happens then I will throw in the towel, Most have, I will just be the last

 

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31 minutes ago, buckeye said:

JB: I am convinced that the MJO and EPO control the pattern when they are amplified, The warm phase rotation of the MJO spawned the positive EPO which destroys NAMER cold. In spite of an undercutting trough in the means, the third in the series of underachieving troughs overall passes off the east coast this weekend, and not only does it produce almost nothing, but its followed by a blow torch

The latest MJO forecast has the modeling sniffing warm phases

if it gets into those favors, the EPO will likely shift back positive

If that happens then I will throw in the towel, Most have, I will just be the last

 

Id panic if i was in NYC and rejoice in Minneapolis. Here in Detroit, i feel a bit nervous but mostly confident that more snowstorms are in the offing.

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