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“Let’s Talk Winter”


Steve
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13 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Over or under for 12" of snow at CMH this winter? Literally nothing to track, unless you enjoy rain. Horrible so far.

The easy answer is under, BUT somehow, someway we always find a way to nickel & dime our way...I’m sensing another miserable “Spring”

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4 hours ago, dilly84 said:

Over or under for 12" of snow at CMH this winter? Literally nothing to track, unless you enjoy rain. Horrible so far.

Over definitely.  Like pondo said, we always find a way to scratch ourselves to near normal, and typically that happens in March and April.   It'll be another forgettable winter though.

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For the supposed pattern change upcoming after the 16th, it appears to be the same pattern in terms of storms for the Ohio Valley- rain then cold front and dry, then rain, cold front and dry.  Maybe the cold periods are colder and a bit longer, and there aren't record highs during the rainstorms (there will still be days in the 40s and 50s), but other than that, it's not looking that impressive outside of the areas north of I-80, which have been the areas that have had anything during the current pattern.  This is looking like one of the exception winters from the stats I posted earlier in the season, with January easily being well above normal in temperatures overall with well below normal snowfall.  I suppose that could change in February-March, but it's unlikely to save the season overall without a February 2010 kind of pattern.

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On 1/11/2020 at 12:31 PM, jbcmh81 said:

For the supposed pattern change upcoming after the 16th, it appears to be the same pattern in terms of storms for the Ohio Valley- rain then cold front and dry, then rain, cold front and dry.  Maybe the cold periods are colder and a bit longer, and there aren't record highs during the rainstorms (there will still be days in the 40s and 50s), but other than that, it's not looking that impressive outside of the areas north of I-80, which have been the areas that have had anything during the current pattern.  This is looking like one of the exception winters from the stats I posted earlier in the season, with January easily being well above normal in temperatures overall with well below normal snowfall.  I suppose that could change in February-March, but it's unlikely to save the season overall without a February 2010 kind of pattern.

We may very well be going into February still with single-digit snowfall totals so far this season. Still sitting at a snowfall total of 7 inches as of December 16, 2019.

So far this month, only a trace of snow was recorded just a week ago. 

Dayton's Top 10 Least Snowiest Januaries:
1. None - 1944
2. Trace - 2020 (currently, as of January 4th)
2 (Tied). - Trace - 1933
2 (Tied). - Trace - 1932
5. 0.1" - 1989
6. 0.2" - 1923
7. 0.4" - 1916
8. 0.7" - 1950
8 (Tied). - 0.7" - 1919
10. 0.9" - 1908
 

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So through the first 11 days of January in Columbus

Avg High: 49.4 5th warmest on record

Avg Low: 34.1 7th warmest on record

Mean: 41.7 6th warmest on record

Snowfall: Trace 2nd lowest on record

Precip: 2.13" 13th wettest on record

Safe to say that January will end up above normal even with a colder 2nd half.  The pattern looks pretty dry after the mid-week rainer once it does get colder.  

Since December 1st, the records are very similar with temperatures running in the top 10 warmest winters on record.  

The 71 degree high yesterday was the 3rd highest temperature ever recorded in January and was a record for the day.

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So with this latest storm being a bust and nothing on the horizon but more rain, this is looking like the first January in 76 years to have no measurable snowfall in Columbus.  It would be just the 3rd time in history to have occurred, both other times before 1950.  Dayton and Cincinnati also have had no measurable snowfall. Most of the winter forecasts have been Bastardi-level awful.  Just an epic fail all around.  

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3 hours ago, jbcmh81 said:

So with this latest storm being a bust and nothing on the horizon but more rain, this is looking like the first January in 76 years to have no measurable snowfall in Columbus.  It would be just the 3rd time in history to have occurred, both other times before 1950.  Dayton and Cincinnati also have had no measurable snowfall. Most of the winter forecasts have been Bastardi-level awful.  Just an epic fail all around.  

Up to a couple of weeks ago, (although I was clearly not optimistic for a good winter), I at least felt we would probably get enough chances to scrape ourselves close to normal by early April.    That hope is 100% gone and I think this could very well turn into a sub 12" winter.  It now 'officially' has that feeling.  I'm starting to think we might go from an above normal Feb to an all out Morch, (which I'd be fine with at this point).

  I know I bring up teleconnection indices a lot....but the truth is, they rarely let you down in spite of whatever the LR models are spitting out or Bustardi-style mets are trying to tell us using kelvin waves, strat warming, or the latest term of winter, (the Indian Ocean Dipole) lol.  Look at the AO, NAO, PNA, EPO, and MJO....especially the MJO and EPO and those are way more telling as far as I'm concerned. 

That being said, the teleconnections are almost as bad as they can be.  The AO, EPO, and NAO are all heading more positive than they currently are.  The MJO is now going from a brief trip thru6 into 7 and then into the COD with overwhelming agreement of exiting the COD into the warm phases.   I do think as we go through 7 late week, there is hope for another junk storm, maybe the one that is currently progged to be way north.....after that, it's back to garbageville and probably for most of the remaining winter.  

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10 hours ago, jbcmh81 said:

So with this latest storm being a bust and nothing on the horizon but more rain, this is looking like the first January in 76 years to have no measurable snowfall in Columbus.  It would be just the 3rd time in history to have occurred, both other times before 1950.  Dayton and Cincinnati also have had no measurable snowfall. Most of the winter forecasts have been Bastardi-level awful.  Just an epic fail all around.  

It really is hard to believe how many outlets got their winter forecasts wrong this year. The only two that got it right were Environment Canada and the National Weather Service, from what I can see.

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11 hours ago, jbcmh81 said:

So with this latest storm being a bust and nothing on the horizon but more rain, this is looking like the first January in 76 years to have no measurable snowfall in Columbus.  It would be just the 3rd time in history to have occurred, both other times before 1950.  Dayton and Cincinnati also have had no measurable snowfall. Most of the winter forecasts have been Bastardi-level awful.  Just an epic fail all around.  

Columbus has had only a trace of snowfall so far this month. The previous Januaries that Columbus only had a trace of snowfall the entire month were 1944 and 1932 (both tied for the least snowiest January on record), however one of the two Februaries that followed those Januaries were better. February 1944 recorded 8.8 inches of snow while February 1932 only recorded 0.4 inches of snow.

Columbus' Highest Daily Maximum Snowfall During Those Februaries:
February 1944: 4.3 inches
February 1932: 0.4 inches

As of today, Dayton still only has a trace of snowfall this month. With January 1944 as the least snowiest on record without any snow at all (not even a trace), the previous Januaries that Dayton only had a trace of snowfall the entire month were in 1933 and 1932 (both tied for the 2nd least snowiest January on record). January 1944 that didn't have any snowfall, let alone a trace, was followed by February of that year recording a monthly snowfall total of 8 inches. February 1933 recorded 3.2 inches of snow while February 1932 recorded only 0.6 inches of snow.

Dayton's Highest Daily Maximum Snowfall During Those Februaries:
February 1944: 3 inches
February 1933: 1.5 inches
February 1932: 0.4 inches

As of today, Cincinnati literally has no snowfall so far this month, not even a trace. Never has Cincinnati had gone through a January without any snow since records began in 1872. The least snowiest January on record is only a trace back in 1989, tied with 1944, 1933, 1932, and 1923. February 1989 recorded 3 inches of snow while February 1944 recorded 5.8 inches of snow, February 1933 with 4.1 inches of snow, February 1932 with only a trace of snowfall, and February 1923 with 3.6 inches of snow.

Cincinnati's Highest Daily Maximum Snowfall During Those Februaries:
February 1989: 1 inch
February 1944: 2 inches
February 1933: Same as above
February 1932: Trace
February 1923: 2.7 inches

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2 hours ago, Spartman said:

Columbus has had only a trace of snowfall so far this month. The previous Januaries that Columbus only had a trace of snowfall the entire month were 1944 and 1932 (both tied for the least snowiest January on record), however one of the two Februaries that followed those Januaries were better. February 1944 recorded 8.8 inches of snow while February 1932 only recorded 0.4 inches of snow.

Columbus' Highest Daily Maximum Snowfall During Those Februaries:
February 1944: 4.3 inches
February 1932: 0.4 inches

As of today, Dayton still only has a trace of snowfall this month. With January 1944 as the least snowiest on record without any snow at all (not even a trace), the previous Januaries that Dayton only had a trace of snowfall the entire month were in 1933 and 1932 (both tied for the 2nd least snowiest January on record). January 1944 that didn't have any snowfall, let alone a trace, was followed by February of that year recording a monthly snowfall total of 8 inches. February 1933 recorded 3.2 inches of snow while February 1932 recorded only 0.6 inches of snow.

Dayton's Highest Daily Maximum Snowfall During Those Februaries:
February 1944: 3 inches
February 1933: 1.5 inches
February 1932: 0.4 inches

As of today, Cincinnati literally has no snowfall so far this month, not even a trace. Never has Cincinnati had gone through a January without any snow since records began in 1872. The least snowiest January on record is only a trace back in 1989, tied with 1944, 1933, 1932, and 1923. February 1989 recorded 3 inches of snow while February 1944 recorded 5.8 inches of snow, February 1933 with 4.1 inches of snow, February 1932 with only a trace of snowfall, and February 1923 with 3.6 inches of snow.

Cincinnati's Highest Daily Maximum Snowfall During Those Februaries:
February 1989: 1 inch
February 1944: 2 inches
February 1933: Same as above
February 1932: Trace
February 1923: 2.7 inches

Save for the winters of 1925-26, 1933-34, 1935-36, 1944-45 and 1947-48, the period of 1920-1949 is by far the worst for winter weather.  Of those 30 seasons, only the five mentioned had normal or above snowfall, and almost as few had below normal temperatures, at least in Columbus.  The average snowfall for the period was just 16.3", a full foot below what it's been in the most recent 30 seasons.  There were 11 seasons in a row with below normal snowfall (1936-37-1946-47), the longest such period on record.

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