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October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range


mattie g
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13 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

This would be a good look 4 weeks from now with a SS vort and cold pressing down from the north.

 

Kind of surprised that vort did not stay under us that run looking at H5.  Heck of a 50/50ish low with ridging up west of Hudson Bay.

All caveats apply obviously...

Lots of energy running around with a nice block shifting west thru GL and a ridge popping on the west coast.  Hopefully we keep getting these looks on the ops.

oajzWkP.png

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1 minute ago, poolz1 said:

Kind of surprised that vort did not stay under us that run looking at H5.  Heck of a 50/50ish low with ridging up west of Hudson Bay.

All caveats apply obviously...

Lots of energy running around with a nice block shifting west thru GL and a ridge popping on the west coast.  Hopefully we keep getting these looks on the ops.

oajzWkP.png

 

Peak climo can't get here soon enough.

I hope we get snow on snow on snow.  Like A Hallmark card please . 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Kind of surprised that vort did not stay under us that run looking at H5.  Heck of a 50/50ish low with ridging up west of Hudson Bay.

All caveats apply obviously...

Lots of energy running around with a nice block shifting west thru GL and a ridge popping on the west coast.  Hopefully we keep getting these looks on the ops.

 

The period centered on the 25th has and continues to look interesting on the GFS/GEFS. Coastal pops a bit too far north(nails SNE) this run, but that period has potential, esp given the advertised NA look.

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56 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Pattern looks active asf moving forward. Repetitive trof in NE and general ridging out West. Really optimistic on a solid closeout to the month as we approach the start of met winter. Starting to see some of the pattern drivers repeating. 

Assuming the nice looks are real...lol...we really need continuation into December before I'll feel good about repetition. November is really good at fooling weenies by going off on a total tangent before "the real" winter pattern sets in. 

That said, closest analog to this is Dec 2009

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_38.png

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Man, I'm lovin the new weenie emoji. I feel like I earn something every time I get tagged. 

Both the GFS and Euro have a closed low tracking under the block with a 50/50 in the way d8-10. Even if it's real it's going to be hard to beat temp climo but just the fact that we are seeing this progression is a sight for sore eyes. We had one back in Jan 2016 didn't we? lol

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_10.png

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Man, I'm lovin the new weenie emoji. I feel like I earn something every time I get tagged. 

Both the GFS and Euro have a closed low tracking under the block with a 50/50 in the way d8-10. Even if it's real it's going to be hard to beat temp climo but just the fact that we are seeing this progression is a sight for sore eyes. We had one back in Jan 2016 didn't we? lol

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_10.png

Umm yeah, Jan 2016 one and done. Loved the storm but it was like we sacrificed so much for that storm. Literally 2018-19 seemed like things we just starting to turn around slowly for some of us. Now get that pattern in place for a couple of weeks then yeah, I'll buy you a drink of your choice Bob 

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BAMMWX energy clients following their advice must be very happy. 

Potential for some traders to make big bucks if the real deal does go down.  Not sure what the short positions currently are in the NG market. 

 

 There goes the tropical analogs 

 

 

image.jpeg

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@Bob Chill hell yes. Ggem has it too FWIW. GEFS washed out. Damn I want that look even like 2 weeks later. Hopefully these looks are a sign of things to come, but I am cautioned by last year when we were getting great looks at this time, and it did even result in a KU that we just missed! Then it all fell apart.

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@Bob Chill hell yes. Ggem has it too FWIW. GEFS washed out. Damn I want that look even like 2 weeks later. Hopefully these looks are a sign of things to come, but I am cautioned by last year when we were getting great looks at this time, and it did even result in a KU that we just missed! Then it all fell apart.

GEFS/GEPS both pop an -EPO last week of the month. GEPS signal is so strong it's a closed ridge at 16 day leads... lol. Wut?

gem-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

 

We're seeing a lot of absolute primo upper level panels for a coastal storm lately. They keep getting better too. I said a bunch of times back during the 13-15 stretch about how I would like to see what would happen with a nasty -EPO and -NAO. heh. Might find out...:weenie:

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Super :weenie: look on the GEPS. Seems biggest variability in the ensembles over the last couple days is in the Aleutian low and associated EPO and PNA domains. Yesterday’s 12z EPS looked a lot like that GEPS plot, then it weakened the ridging in the west coast and NAO region overnight. But even in a weakened state, the looks are still good. They’re varying between “solid/decent” and “pants tent”, which is a pretty good regime to be in. I wish it was December...

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS/GEPS both pop an -EPO last week of the month. GEPS signal is so strong it's a closed ridge at 16 day leads... lol. Wut?

 

We're seeing a lot of absolute primo upper level panels for a coastal storm lately. They keep getting better too. I said a bunch of times back during the 13-15 stretch about how I would like to see what would happen with a nasty -EPO and -NAO. heh. Might find out...:weenie:

IMO seeing coastals pop up is a good thing regardless since it means there's a chance this winter pattern might feature at least some favorable periods.

All for a nasty -EPO and -NAO as long as it's not overdone to the point where we're getting suppression. I'll be thrilled to see our SE friends cash in on Miller A's that start in AL as long as they eventually get around to mauling us. But I'll take a pass on smoking cold cirrus while watching Atlanta get hammered by a southern slider. :weenie: 

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Super :weenie: look on the GEPS. Seems biggest variability in the ensembles over the last couple days is in the Aleutian low and associated EPO and PNA domains. Yesterday’s 12z EPS looked a lot like that GEPS plot, then it weakened the ridging in the west coast and NAO region overnight. But even in a weakened state, the looks are still good. They’re varying between “solid/decent” and “pants tent”, which is a pretty good regime to be in. I wish it was December...

Yeah I really would like to know whether Nov is merely a "head fake" before we torch through half our prime climo in Dec/Jan, or a glimpse into perhaps the base state setting up for winter. Guess we'll find out in a few weeks......

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Assuming the nice looks are real...lol...we really need continuation into December before I'll feel good about repetition. November is really good at fooling weenies by going off on a total tangent before "the real" winter pattern sets in. 

That said, closest analog to this is Dec 2009

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_38.png

If the Euro depiction above actually happened I’d think it’s at least a front end wintry period. But sure to change in some way that far out. Nice seeing possibilities though.

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36 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS/GEPS both pop an -EPO last week of the month. GEPS signal is so strong it's a closed ridge at 16 day leads... lol. Wut?

gem-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

 

We're seeing a lot of absolute primo upper level panels for a coastal storm lately. They keep getting better too. I said a bunch of times back during the 13-15 stretch about how I would like to see what would happen with a nasty -EPO and -NAO. heh. Might find out...:weenie:

Anybody think that open water just north of Alaska is gonna help us, at least for a while.

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32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Anybody think that open water just north of Alaska is gonna help us, at least for a while.

Seems more than a little coincidental that the Chukchi and Bering seas are so open and there’s a strong tendency for ridging there. 

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11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems more than a little coincidental that the Chukchi and Bering seas are so open and there’s a strong tendency for ridging there. 

It does. These ocean/troposphere connections are always the chicken or egg argument and I don't claim to know the answer. However, once the SSTAs are established I strongly believe it helps create a feedback loop. Similar to "the blob" in the GoA. 

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3 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Seems more than a little coincidental that the Chukchi and Bering seas are so open and there’s a strong tendency for ridging there. 

Yeah we literally just had a triple coupled PNA/EPO/WPO ridge bridge with the cold snap this week. I would say its reasonable to think we see more of that going forward.

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3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If the Euro depiction above actually happened I’d think it’s at least a front end wintry period. But sure to change in some way that far out. Nice seeing possibilities though.

With the looks were getting in the long range  hopefully its just a matter of time till were tracking something legit.

Heck 18z GFS  pushes the next weekend system south of us.

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If you go to the 18z GEFS in N Hemi view, change to 2m temp anomalies, and run the loop from start to finish, you can see ~16° positive SD parked over Beaufort Sea (N Alaska) that literally doesnt move. Is this the area with no sea ice? Amazing to see really. Oh, and our region avg BN temps the entire run. :D

 

 

20191114_200558.png

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@Ralph Wiggum yes that’s the insanely anomalous open water area of the Chukchi

I know we all know el nino/nina  and the atmospheric impacts. Just amazing to see in such a relatively small area. And the precise impact on the air temps there. Going to be interesting to see how it affect the tropospheric flow in that region and if + height anomalies continue.

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11 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I wouldn’t claim to actually know but it would seem anomalous heights would be located over anomalous warmth. And open water seemingly would at least be warmer than what is normal. Seems logical to me anyway, lol.

Cool to see such intense +SD verification of it on the 500mb ens that is stationary. Definitely not a feature you see everyday.

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I see nothing on any guidance that troubles me much. In about a week we will start to get an idea if this pattern rolls into December. If so I will get more optimistic. So far so good. 

 

Hey psu what do you think abut the 06z GEFS? 

Some models put a trough in the SW and cut back on the West Coast ridging. You feel anything there is transient or simply the models are not getting it correct?  

Maybe a simple case of a relax, and then a reload. Some features at the HL are persistent and encouraging. Nothing really bad to say. And the things I am referring to are in la la land anyway. But, still interesting to attempt to figure out what is going on and thier implications for the base state as we enter December.  

 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

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