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October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range


mattie g
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4 hours ago, LurkerBoy said:

None of you know what you’re talking about and there’s no women in this forum anywhere because it’s a boys club where outsiders are condescended to. Have a good winter. Move north

Do I address you as LurkerBoy or Lurkerman?   Your profile leaves me confused. 

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17 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I was looking at the 850 temp anomaly on GEFS toward turkey day....Canada is torch red.  

Going to be a winter of ups and downs (balancing act). Visits by the PV and periods of zonal PAC dominated flow. 500mb teleconnections look decent during that period. PAC flow however looks flat into the NW (250 mb jet) which is why you are seeing the AN anomalies across Canada. It happens. I dont think it will be a wall to wall PAC dominated winter like last year.

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Going to be a winter of ups and downs (balancing act). Visits by the PV and periods of zonal PAC dominated flow. 500mb teleconnections look decent during that period. PAC flow however looks flat into the NW (250 mb jet) which is why you are seeing the AN anomalies across Canada. It happens. I dont think it will be a wall to wall PAC dominated winter like last year.

Makes sense to me and considering the EPS doesn’t agree is good enough for me. 

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19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS disagrees FWIW.  

 

 

 

 

And Mike Ventrice notes that the Strat vortex will keep getting beat up

 

 

This isnt a horrible look. Much rather see a split PV with elongations and lobes rather than one that is consolidated over the N Pole and causing a persistent zonal flow across the lower 48. This also aids in the increased likelihood for HL blocking.

 

gfs_z100_nh_f216.png

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EPS in the MR has the big blocking ridge over Chukchi(displaced WPO), then it weakens in the LR, and shifts the PNA ridge a bit eastward. EPO looks to trend neutral/positive. AO looks slightly negative, with a neutral NAO(maybe trending more negative at the end). PV looks to remain fairly perturbed as we continue to see TPV lobes rotating down. I am down with that look heading towards the end of the month. Should be generally chilly for the EC if it verifies.

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18 hours ago, LurkerBoy said:

None of you know what you’re talking about and there’s no women in this forum anywhere because it’s a boys club where outsiders are condescended to. Have a good winter. Move north

Woman, checking in. 

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2 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

I mentioned  yesterday .Some  ensemble members still show a sort of secondary precip max for se areas and towards eastern shore . Some of them are rain and a few are wet snow . Something to keep an eye on .

With no real trailing wave on the front, it looks like the usual cold chasing precip to me. Models do this a lot- show brief frozen on the tail end- and it is normally a total zero. Probably the best shot at seeing some flakes flying is with some instability snow showers as the legit cold moves in behind the front.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro has replaced our coastal low for next weekend with a 1040mb arctic high pressure. 

Had a hunch the flip to warm will be delayed. Very impressive high latitude AN height/pressure pattern going on. A setup that typically fights back before caving.

Def not the same pattern that displaced the tpv during 13-15 seasons. The longer it holds on the better the odds of a recurrence after it takes a break. Starting Dec with an anomalous -AO would be a solid reason to turn optimistic for early winter snowfall. 

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17 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Had a hunch the flip to warm will be delayed. Very impressive high latitude AN height/pressure pattern going on. A setup that typically fights back before caving.

Def not the same pattern that displaced the tpv during 13-15 seasons. The longer it holds on the better the odds of a recurrence after it takes a break. Starting Dec with an anomalous -AO would be a solid reason to turn optimistic for early winter snowfall. 

Im on the December 5th train join me

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

Im on the December 5th train join me

I'm always in on that. More importantly... I'm looking for anything and everything that points towards Dec not being a disaster. If the seasonal/weekly guidance is right there won't be very many happy weenies in the MA this Dec. 

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16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Had a hunch the flip to warm will be delayed. Very impressive high latitude AN height/pressure pattern going on. A setup that typically fights back before caving.

Def not the same pattern that displaced the tpv during 13-15 seasons. The longer it holds on the better the odds of a recurrence after it takes a break. Starting Dec with an anomalous -AO would be a solid reason to turn optimistic for early winter snowfall. 

 

Of interest ....... hopefully it has a clue. Or , another way to look at it .....   Bob >  CFSv2      

 

 

 

 

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