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October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range


mattie g
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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


31d145d113a7de7ac67ce3372725269e.jpg

something something, lock it up.

Comparing between 0z, Jackpotville lost some snow, as well as a second maximum in SE VA, but overall a little more for most if not just equivalent. Definitely not a run that suggests the threat is over.

 

its mid-november! if i got 1.5" next week from a passing cold front with crashing temps, I would be elated! take what you can get this early man. 

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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


31d145d113a7de7ac67ce3372725269e.jpg

something something, lock it up.

Comparing between 0z, Jackpotville lost some snow, as well as a second maximum in SE VA, but overall a little more for most if not just equivalent. Definitely not a run that suggests the threat is over.

 

We abscond with that.  I would take an inch of snow in a heartbeat in mid-November

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Ggem and euro both flipped back to a more amplified primary low that cuts inland. Round and round we go. 

There is still enough spread within the ensembles that it could go either way, but if the lead northern stream wave ends up dominant that is probably the inevitable result.  Its coming across too far north and out ahead of the cold push for our purposes.  

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It would likely be rain, with the midweek cold going stale/moving out. I am down for a soaking rain though. It's starting to get a bit dry here again.

Yes, cold air would be getting stale for sure. 850 temps on both look chilly now, but if the low was closer to the coast, those could warm. 

General pattern on the ensembles as we move toward D10+ is to lose cross polar flow, but maintain a +PNA, so we could be BN but not in record territory like next week.

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I'm good with a wet pattern becoming consistent again. It's just a shame we won't have a winter now thanks to those winter outlooks :(

Well at least we know to keep our expectations low now since the experts have spoken. SE ridge shall dominate..we torcher.

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3 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This EPS run actually brought back in a couple of higher end solutions, especially south. Reminds me of earlier GFS runs a little.

Good chunk of members jackpot Hampton Rhodes, a couple of 10”ers in there.

I can sympathize with them. 

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3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But how does that eps mean happen. If it’s because of one or two big totals then it doesn’t mean much at all.

Agreed. I am still thinking it is a Nov climo "event". Strong cold front with 15 minutes of snow. That is just normal for this time of year for our area. 

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Overnight runs were pretty rough for the Tue/Wed possibilities. Wouldn't give up on it at this point but we have definitely seen a degrade in the look. The make or break day for me is roughly Sunday when we see how the models handle the energy in the different streams in western Canada.

The following Friday has a little bit of potential but as has been mentioned we will be probably be dealing with stale cold where we need a manufacturing of cold (bombing low) or a fresh supply that is not evident on the models at this time. Looking at the EPS day 10/11 period has my interest somewhat (The previous Friday event will have a big say, think 50/50 low). Truth be told the whole period day 10 onward interests me. But we are talking the extended and the EPS is somewhat muddled on specific details but overall the pattern is favorable and we are seeing multiple pieces of NS energy diving down through this period.

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Just a thought...not an expectation.  Looking at the pattern relaxing just a bit in the long range with the higher heights in AK breaking down.  Basically the same pattern we are in now but less anomalous.  I could envision that Aleutian low pumping heights back up in AK but now we have some monster ridging in scan pushing toward the pole.  If the Aleutian low plays nice you can see how a true ridge bridge could form pretty quickly and really get the pattern cranking by early Dec.

EPS is close to pulling this off at the end of the run.  GEFS are outside in the yard playing soccer with a football bat.

 

LyfcKAm.png

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9 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

ust a thought...not an expectation.  Looking at the pattern relaxing just a bit in the long range with the higher heights in AK breaking down.  Basically the same pattern we are in now but less anomalous.  I could envision that Aleutian low pumping heights back up in AK but now we have some monster ridging in scan pushing toward the pole.  If the Aleutian low plays nice you can see how a true ridge bridge could form pretty quickly and really get the pattern cranking by early Dec.

EPS is close to pulling this off at the end of the run.  GEFS are outside in the yard playing soccer with a football bat.

There are signs that a real - NAO may get going to extend the colder pattern in the NE later in November.  There always has been talk that later November/early December  it could occur.  

Looks of retrogression in the pattern along with several indicators such as the MJO, Aleutian low, Scand block. 

 

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