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October/November 2019 Mid/Long Range


mattie g
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One thing that is nice to see (granted its November) is the relatively stable pattern throughout the run of the EPS, especially out west.  Reloading of the Aleutian low and higher heights up and down the west coast.  As has been said before, Nov certainly looks to be on the chilly side but hopefully the stability will roll into DJFM 

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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

One thing that is nice to see (granted its November) is the relatively stable pattern throughout the run of the EPS, especially out west.  Reloading of the Aleutian low and higher heights up and down the west coast.  As has been said before, Nov certainly looks to be on the chilly side but hopefully the stability will roll into DJFM 

This storm will establish the pattern for the entire winter. Atmospheric memory. Days and days of snow. Die is cast. It’s set in stone. The kicker has never missed a FG

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12 minutes ago, H2O said:

This storm will establish the pattern for the entire winter. Atmospheric memory. Days and days of snow. Die is cast. It’s set in stone. The kicker has never missed a FG

And if its not this storm, its the next one.  Mountain Torques and wooly caterpillars and stuff.

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Personally, I'm not enthused by the setup next week. It's one thing when cold HP is established but gets really tricky banking on an early season arctic front to clear in time AND have a perfectly timed wave develop and run the boundary while we're on the cold side. Climo will fight this type of event tooth and nail. I'm not saying I don't think there's a chance just that I think climo will prevail and the reality will be rain/cold front/cold dry. We'll see. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Personally, I'm not enthused by the setup next week. It's one thing when cold HP is established but gets really tricky banking on an early season arctic front to clear in time AND have a perfectly timed wave develop and run the boundary while we're on the cold side. Climo will fight this type of event tooth and nail. I'm not saying I don't think there's a chance just that I think climo will prevail and the reality will be rain/cold front/cold dry. We'll see. 

 

I agree. Setup is not one that ever really works for us, and that's in January and February. Good luck in November. But I hope I'm wrong.

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Personally, I'm not enthused by the setup next week. It's one thing when cold HP is established but gets really tricky banking on an early season arctic front to clear in time AND have a perfectly timed wave develop and run the boundary while we're on the cold side. Climo will fight this type of event tooth and nail. I'm not saying I don't think there's a chance just that I think climo will prevail and the reality will be rain/cold front/cold dry. We'll see. 

 

I think a phased solution like the GFS showed at 6z is very unlikely. But a northern stream vortmax causing a small area of light precip isn’t crazy. That’s more like what the euro has been showing. 

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I agree. Setup is not one that ever really works for us, and that's in January and February. Good luck in November. But I hope I'm wrong.

This setup is very similar to a number of events in 2013-14 and the one thing that is really interesting is the level of cold behind this front. That's like once in 20 year kind of stuff for the first half of November. Because the cold appears to be legit there's a case that can be made for a real shot at snow next week. What I'd like to see is the front amplify further allowing the trailing wave to lag and not run hot on the heels of the front itself. Maybe 12z leans that way...

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2 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

 Ok, so... 

Odds of a 6"+ snow is near zero, but what are we thinking about odds of a little snow TV up to a dusting (which is all any of us should realistically be hoping for at this point)?  50/50?

I’d say 80/20 against my yard seeing even snow tv.  Waiting on cold is much more precarious set up as others have said..but no sun angle issues so there’s that. 

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