Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Winter 2019-20 Preseason Discussion


WxUSAF
 Share

Recommended Posts

47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Take 2004/5 and remove the god awful start and replace it with anything remotely mediocre and that becomes a pretty good year. Just a thought. 

Hell, take last year and sub in a "normal" December and it ends up being borderline great year.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Again, the GEFS is not backing down on the warming over Siberia.  Its actually a pretty big reversal in temps at 10mb.  From much below normal to highly anomalous warmth occurs over the course of about 7 days and continues through the end of the run.   I like the elongation predicted...nosing into Canada.  Also note the strengthening stops/pauses?.... Nothing Earth shattering but notable as @frd pointed out.

YHrbORS.gif

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting thoughts from Cranky on the upcoming winter:

http://www.stormhamster.com/entry2/e101819.htm

1018-029.jpg

Something you've seen me post since the summer and the process continues to reinforce. We just watched two October storm setups born off this very pattern being emulated by our stream flows. We'll watch the next attempt to do the same.

Does this persist into winter? If so I continue to say we could see several more classic arctic outbreaks and classic coastal winter storm tracks.

I am not talking about a ceaseless onslaught. The overall winter pattern in my opinion likely features the blander milder November, a colder active December, then January/February maybe a little above norms, with March/April possibly featuring another late period colder/active return.

Yet within all of that? Expect a few more classic outbreaks and storm tracks.

Of course, it is still early, and it will be another 4 to 8 weeks before we truly know if the support we see now is still in play by then.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 10/18/2019 at 8:27 PM, BristowWx said:

NOAA predicts warmer than normal in our region..wetter as well.  We shall see.  I have gotten used to warmer than normal temps.  Almost expected.  It’s a crap chute. 

Even if we end up with a warmer winter, would rather roll the dice with wetter than normal and just time up cold shots with precip.  Doubtful its wall to wall warmth. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, nj2va said:

Even if we end up with a warmer winter, would rather roll the dice with wetter than normal and just time up cold shots with precip.  Doubtful its wall to wall warmth. 

Agree on all points.  Leesburg 04 scenario is exactly what we want.  I’m feeling good about this winter which is not far away now.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

From bluewave, and this is pretty remarkable.

I hope to see some sort of reshuffle down the  road that has some staying power.

 

From bluewave 's recent post :

<<<<<.  

We just need some help from the Pacific. The -PNA/SE Ridge combo  has been running the table this year.  
 

2019 pattern to date

15C9618E-C6C1-4EA1-AFAC-2F47E4A9573C.gif.4b83b1a1837ad05e2c161adec21f8eda.gif

 

>>>>>

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, frd said:

From bluewave, and this is pretty remarkable.

I hope to see some sort of reshuffle down the  road that has some staying power.

 

From bluewave 's recent post :

<<<<<.  

We just need some help from the Pacific. The -PNA/SE Ridge combo  has been running the table this year.  
 

2019 pattern to date

15C9618E-C6C1-4EA1-AFAC-2F47E4A9573C.gif.4b83b1a1837ad05e2c161adec21f8eda.gif

 

>>>>>

Is it going to take big changes to get things the way we want them for winter? If it is, then i guess we got time, which is good for us i suppose. The qbo and the IOD has me most intrigued. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Is it going to take big changes to get things the way we want them for winter? If it is, then i guess we got time, which is good for us i suppose. The qbo and the IOD has me most intrigued. 

The SST seasonal models weaken the very positive IOD in the months ahead.

The QBO is descending, but there is some debate as to when , if at all,  we reap the benefits here in the East.  Some say later in the winter, while others say December and onward. 

Some interesting comparisons were posted a while ago in this thread regarding the QBO.    

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, frd said:

 

I am not liking this set up.

Warm waters shifting further West in time. Wonder if this effects the middle Pacific and feedback towards a WAR.

 

  

Well that looks ominous...(and someone commented that such may signal "trough in the west and ridge in the east" (again)...Oof. Just why...If it is like last year, maybe we can still squeeze out our average...(Hey, at least it wouldn't be just us getting screwed...the whole northeast would be too, right? Lol

Overall, I'm als)o wondering if we can pull off a nino for a third year in a row next year (2020-21)...or do things go back to nina? (a nina would be tough because then we may not see above average snow for another couple years depending on the strength!)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just for the hell of it, I took a peek at the latest edition of the EPS weeklies. As we all know by now, they are to be taken with a serious grain of salt. Looks anomalously warm for the whole run(outside of maybe 2 weeks that look normal) for the eastern third of the US. That takes us through the first week of Dec.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Just for the hell of it, I took a peek at the latest edition of the EPS weeklies. As we all know by now, they are to be taken with a serious grain of salt. Looks anomalously warm for the whole run(outside of maybe 2 weeks that look normal) for the eastern third of the US. That takes us through the first week of Dec.

Fits the Seasonal outlook.

For those that follow the weeklies may I suggest......... some Zoloft ;)

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...