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Winter 2019-20 Preseason Discussion


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2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Going to be wild ride in the LR if anything close the 12z gfs op run comes to fruition. Monster heights over Greenland. gefs agree with the look...as far as ensembles go.

One of my favorite events ever was the 8” of snow up here in October 2011.  No lull. Just steady heavy wet snow that stick to everything. Wouldn’t mind an early season repeat. Of course the winter that followed sucked. 

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6” here from that one...your elevation certainly helped you out on that one I would think. That storm did a number on a huge black walnut tree we have on our property. It is one of the last trees to lose its leaves. Up to just a year or two ago we were still getting dead limbs finally falling as most of them were just snapped and hanging down.

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the last time DCA had snow on the ground for Christmas was in 2009...7" was on the ground at 7am...it was washed away by heavy rain that afternoon and night...pretty much the same happened up here in NYC...I was surprised there were so little White Christmas's in Washington...I checked DCA and came up with seven years with snow on the ground Christmas morning...did I miss any?...

2009...7".....rain in the afternoon...

1989...2".....continued cold...

1966...7".....snowstorm Christmas eve...

1963...3".....snowstorm on the 23rd...

1962...5" and snowing...best white Christmas I found...5" fell that day...7" depth at end...NYC just had one inch and light snow Christmas day...

1960...1".....

1945...3".....rain that afternoon washed it all away...

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49 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the last time DCA had snow on the ground for Christmas was in 2009...7" was on the ground at 7am...it was washed away by heavy rain that afternoon and night...pretty much the same happened up here in NYC...I was surprised there were so little White Christmas's in Washington...I checked DCA and came up with seven years with snow on the ground Christmas morning...did I miss any?...

2009...7".....rain in the afternoon...

1989...2".....continued cold...

1966...7".....snowstorm Christmas eve...

1963...3".....snowstorm on the 23rd...

1962...5" and snowing...best white Christmas I found...5" fell that day...7" depth at end...NYC just had one inch and light snow Christmas day...

1960...1".....

1945...3".....rain that afternoon washed it all away...

This is because DC pretty much sucks as a snow town.

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GEFS has been consistently advertising some significant warming over Siberia at 10mb. Starts around day 9 but seems to start to shove the PV towards the end of the run. I don’t expect a full on assault or anything but any temporary pauses in strengthening can only be a positive as we near the end of fall.

82f64647b947295c5a7c56651c9dfef6.jpg

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Certainly not a bad look heading into November. To bad it's not 4 weeks later. 

 

Pretty darn nice. 12z Euro ens looks even more impressive than the 0z panel I posted above, and very similar to the GEFS. Hate to keep repeating it, but pretty uncanny how similar the current LR ens runs look to the CanSIPS h5 pattern for Nov, which it has been consistently depicting since August, and continues it through March. Lets hope this is an early indication of how the pattern will roll going forward.

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44 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Clearly the most anomalous cold in the NH looks to be in our neck of the woods. A heck of signal for a long range ensemble. Maybe a case of the gefs overestimating the cold...eps is similar but not as robust.
110d121b6ac9ab6458edd9a1a6857e65.jpg

Correct me if I’m wrong but to me, that’s a great  location for that trough for the eastern seaboard if you like coastal storms.

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What we are seeing on the ensembles the last couple of days are some killer looks. Fantasy snow thread will start hopping if these looks are for real. Will we see snow? Probably not (anything of consequence), but they will be fun to look at none the less. Mentioned a few days ago the PAC looked primed but the Atlantic wasn't there. But now we are seeing the models hitting hard on a -NAO. Really a great look at this time as we head into the snow season. If this is foreshadowing what we can expect this coming winter then there will many happy snow weenies on these boards in the east. 

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4 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

What we are seeing on the ensembles the last couple of days are some killer looks. Fantasy snow thread will start hopping if these looks are for real. Will we see snow? Probably not (anything of consequence), but they will be fun to look at none the less. Mentioned a few days ago the PAC looked primed but the Atlantic wasn't there. But now we are seeing the models hitting hard on a -NAO. Really a great look at this time as we head into the snow season. If this is foreshadowing what we can expect this coming winter then there will many happy snow weenies on these boards in the east. 

Yeah it is a great look, but one only needs to remember how many good looks materialized in the NAO domain over the last few years.  To me, its just a LR map right now (but oh how i wanna believe). 

PAC looks to be better going into our fun time this year so, one can conceivably see that as a +, but with low sea ice and warmth in northern latitudes, I remain skeptical wrt AO/NAO until further notice - or another 40 model runs :) .

 

Snakebit   

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3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

PAC looks to be better going into our fun time this year so, one can conceivably see that as a +, but with low sea ice and warmth in northern latitudes, I remain skeptical wrt AO/NAO until further notice - or another 40 model runs :) .

 

 

You have to think now that maybe the NAO is starting to show its hand. I know some long range  models take it back up to positive in later November but still it is at the least nice  to see it going negative again. 

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3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah it is a great look, but one only needs to remember how many good looks materialized in the NAO domain over the last few years.  To me, its just a LR map right now (but oh how i wanna believe). 

PAC looks to be better going into our fun time this year so, one can conceivably see that as a +, but with low sea ice and warmth in northern latitudes, I remain skeptical wrt AO/NAO until further notice - or another 40 model runs :) .

 

Snakebit   

There is one big difference between previous years and what we are now seeing. Previous years the models were hitting hard with a -NAO from the get go (day 15/16) in the long range only to weaken it and eventually (in most cases) lose it as it neared in time (under 10 days). What we have right now is that the models didn't start seeing this possible -NAO until it was inside of 10 days on the models and they have been strengthening it as it nears in time. You can see this if you go back and look through the last week of runs or so. Does this mean we will see a -NAO? No, but I sure am liking the tendencies now as opposed to then.

 

Lucky Roller

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15 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

There is one big difference between previous years and what we are now seeing. Previous years the models were hitting hard with a -NAO from the get go (day 15/16) in the long range only to weaken it and eventually (in most cases) lose it as it neared in time (under 10 days). What we have right now is that the models didn't start seeing this possible -NAO until it was inside of 10 days on the models and they have been strengthening it as it nears in time. You can see this if you go back and look through the last week of runs or so. Does this mean we will see a -NAO? No, but I sure am liking the tendencies now as opposed to then.

 

Lucky Roller

Its happening!! because the mighty CanSIPS has been leading the way on this look beginning late fall for months, and now that the LR global ens are in range, they are all over it. ;)

Latest runs of the CFS, otoh, says huh? what blocking?

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This is really nice to see,  another unusual mid-October powerful cyclone. 

Wonder what happens as we shift to late Nov. and early December as the baroclinic zone shifts South. Also, previous monthly Euro runs showed an active East Coast . 

 

 

 

 

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55 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

There is one big difference between previous years and what we are now seeing. Previous years the models were hitting hard with a -NAO from the get go (day 15/16) in the long range only to weaken it and eventually (in most cases) lose it as it neared in time (under 10 days). What we have right now is that the models didn't start seeing this possible -NAO until it was inside of 10 days on the models and they have been strengthening it as it nears in time. You can see this if you go back and look through the last week of runs or so. Does this mean we will see a -NAO? No, but I sure am liking the tendencies now as opposed to then.

 

Lucky Roller

@showmethesnow

Wow, it is big ! 

If this actually happens maybe we can place more confidence in the models later in the winter should   (   " IF "   )  they forecast another huge Greenland block. 

 

 

 

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52 minutes ago, frd said:

@showmethesnow

Wow, it is big ! 

If this actually happens maybe we can place more confidence in the models later in the winter should   (   " IF "   )  they forecast another huge Greenland block. 

 

 

 

Are we buying or selling this?

I'm not either.....I'm holding.

I agree w/ Showme that the way the NAO is showing up is different, so to that I cannot argue, but so early in the season and so late w/ cold really building up north, I remain the skeptic for those reasons.  Of course i'd be glad to be wrong...I wanna be wrong, but, the look above per ventrice is  one we've seen modeled before with little follow through.  On the bright side, it will only take for the GFS to be right this one time to make all of us believers again.   It sure is perty as modeled.

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I'm not going to pout and complain that it's only late October/Early November BUT if this look can materialize and hold for steady periods throughout the 2019-20 winter, we will be looking at plenty of snow opportunities. Ridge/Trough axis is nearly perfect (perhaps a smidge too far west), high latitude blocking over the top, trough north of Hawaii.... great look. 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_49.png

Again, if I had to release an official analog map right now, I'd throw this one out there. And it has similarities to the map above. The difference is just the ridge orientation out west. That affects the trough orientation in the east downstream. But anyway, is it premature to say a 500mb pattern in late October will stick around for 4-5 months? Holy crap yes. You'd have to be a new level of stupid to think you've got a sure-thing touchdown right now. But if we can get stuck in this pattern with the occasional thaw/warm-up? Then it's all-aboard the hype train. Either way its nice to be thinking about winter early this year rather than later.

1724086106_2019-20winteranalog500mb.png.345ab5febb1387e77d081caa490b6977.png

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3 hours ago, Newman said:

I'm not going to pout and complain that it's only late October/Early November BUT if this look can materialize and hold for steady periods throughout the 2019-20 winter, we will be looking at plenty of snow opportunities. Ridge/Trough axis is nearly perfect (perhaps a smidge too far west), high latitude blocking over the top, trough north of Hawaii.... great look. 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_49.png

Again, if I had to release an official analog map right now, I'd throw this one out there. And it has similarities to the map above. The difference is just the ridge orientation out west. That affects the trough orientation in the east downstream. But anyway, is it premature to say a 500mb pattern in late October will stick around for 4-5 months? Holy crap yes. You'd have to be a new level of stupid to think you've got a sure-thing touchdown right now. But if we can get stuck in this pattern with the occasional thaw/warm-up? Then it's all-aboard the hype train. Either way its nice to be thinking about winter early this year rather than later.

1724086106_2019-20winteranalog500mb.png.345ab5febb1387e77d081caa490b6977.png

I'm glad to see the 2004-2005 analog that lines up with my blog last week!

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15 hours ago, Newman said:

I'm not going to pout and complain that it's only late October/Early November BUT if this look can materialize and hold for steady periods throughout the 2019-20 winter, we will be looking at plenty of snow opportunities. Ridge/Trough axis is nearly perfect (perhaps a smidge too far west), high latitude blocking over the top, trough north of Hawaii.... great look. 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_49.png

Again, if I had to release an official analog map right now, I'd throw this one out there. And it has similarities to the map above. The difference is just the ridge orientation out west. That affects the trough orientation in the east downstream. But anyway, is it premature to say a 500mb pattern in late October will stick around for 4-5 months? Holy crap yes. You'd have to be a new level of stupid to think you've got a sure-thing touchdown right now. But if we can get stuck in this pattern with the occasional thaw/warm-up? Then it's all-aboard the hype train. Either way its nice to be thinking about winter early this year rather than later.

1724086106_2019-20winteranalog500mb.png.345ab5febb1387e77d081caa490b6977.png

Just about spit out my coffee....thanks for the chuckle. 

In fariness, and in my mind, there is no reason (other than atmoshperic memory, voodo dolls, and all that other hexy stuff that works against us), to say that with the base state being neutralish, that once something "locks in", that it couldn't stick around for a while or reoccur as no dominant forcing mechanisms seem to be showing up.  

Just looking at the overnight GEFS at the start of Nov (when it becomes show time for me as it CAN snow if things line up right), one can already see an erosion of the ridging in AK and a trough getting ready to dump into the SW.  Mind you its way out there, but there's just not enough continuity to get cranked up yet.   

Tellies show the AO tanking, so I'll just take that for now and enjoy my leaf peepin....

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Just about spit out my coffee....thanks for the chuckle. 

In fariness, and in my mind, there is no reason (other than atmoshperic memory, voodo dolls, and all that other hexy stuff that works against us), to say that with the base state being neutralish, that once something "locks in", that it couldn't stick around for a while or reoccur as no dominant forcing mechanisms seem to be showing up.  

Just looking at the overnight GEFS at the start of Nov (when it becomes show time for me as it CAN snow if things line up right), one can already see an erosion of the ridging in AK and a trough getting ready to dump into the SW.  Mind you its way out there, but there's just not enough continuity to get cranked up yet.   

Tellies show the AO tanking, so I'll just take that for now and enjoy my leaf peepin....

Other than monitoring ENSO, the thing to watch this time of year is the AO. Always a good thing to see the emerging cold season PV get perturbed early and often.

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36 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Other than monitoring ENSO, the thing to watch this time of year is the AO. Always a good thing to see the emerging cold season PV get perturbed early and often.

Yup.  And to add to your point, if we don't have an overwhelmingly big PV, it is conceivable to think that frequent perturbations could happen.  To the other side of the coin, it could also mean that we see transient periods.  To me, the warming Arctic is an new variable that is playing a part in the challenges we have seen in the past few years, as you can't just plot tellies/500mb maps etc, and assume traditional outcomes.  Its just something that has been bouncing around the rocks in my head.  Good news is that as we all know....it doesnt have to be overwhelmingly cold.....just cold enough.

Heading to the cabin for a few days to get off the grid, so gin up a good early season pattern for us while I'm gone :).

 

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NOAA winter outlook is out.  We're in the above normal temp/above normal precip area, but lowest color contour for each.  Temp pattern much more Nina then Nino.  Precip doesn't really look like either, but I guess a bit more Nina with lower precip in CA and TX/LA.  

 

 

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