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Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion


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1 minute ago, canderson said:

I hope you're right!

I should clarify I'm by no means cancelling winter - I just have a feeling it's not going to be our year and we miss while others get hit. 

Not trying to be negative and not talking about any upcoming threat, just a raw feeling I have that I'm rooting to be wrong. 

On the plus side, and has been commented a lot I believe, this year is already better than last as far as not having to deal with a frying pan December.  I know we in or near the LSV were already at 5-10" by this point but a warm December and Christmas is the worst.  Still could be warm by the time we get there but so far so good with only occasional spikes in temps.  

 

 

 

 

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56 minutes ago, canderson said:

I hope you're right!

I should clarify I'm by no means cancelling winter - I just have a feeling it's not going to be our year and we miss while others get hit. 

Not trying to be negative and not talking about any upcoming threat, just a raw feeling I have that I'm rooting to be wrong. 

I’m not saying your wrong. You could be 100% right.  I just see it differently. 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

I've had a gut feeling all fall this winter will be a very poor one for us LSV folks so I'm not getting any hopes up at all. We had such a good year last year (no big, big storm after that first one but we were above climo) that we have to pay the piper. 

I agree and have punted already 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

On the plus side, and has been commented a lot I believe, this year is already better than last as far as not having to deal with a frying pan December.  I know we in or near the LSV were already at 5-10" by this point but a warm December and Christmas is the worst.  Still could be warm by the time we get there but so far so good with only occasional spikes in temps.  

 

 

 

 

We did end November slightly above normal didn't we, even with the early cold? Today feels like a real winter day, for sure! 

Next two weeks look unsettled for sure, here's hoping we get some temp cooperation. 

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8 hours ago, sauss06 said:

This month is crazy for me. Saturday is only day to cut down a tree, so yeah, a lil less rain would be awesome.

Tuesday morning may be a plowable event

It's kind of crazy we just haven't had much cold air in place. Usually in this time period in December we have had a decent snow.

Good Luck cutting your tree down.

 

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2 hours ago, canderson said:

I hope you're right!

I should clarify I'm by no means cancelling winter - I just have a feeling it's not going to be our year and we miss while others get hit

Not trying to be negative and not talking about any upcoming threat, just a raw feeling I have that I'm rooting to be wrong. 

Based on what??  Please let us know what your seeing?

Not sure how much you read, but the base state is much more conducive to at least windows of opportunity.  NAO EPAC MJO are all showing signs of wanting to play along this year, or at least not be stuck in bad phases.  Do we score, well that/s anybody's guess, but the signals are pointing to good trackin weather (hunter in me) snow or no snow. 

Daxx, I'm right w/ ya bud.  I think we may be tired in the foreseeable future.  

 

 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm telling people 30" - 45" this winter. We'll see...

Really dont think you are off your rocker (weather wise anyway ;)).  Especially if the LR looks that seem to be morphing into an active early winter pattern shaping up.  Not saying blockbuster, but run of the mill offerings isnt as far fetched as some may think.  Really liking seeing the NAO popping and the PNA heading pos.  Split flow as some models are hinting at, can be fun times round here.

 

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3 hours ago, canderson said:

We did end November slightly above normal didn't we, even with the early cold? Today feels like a real winter day, for sure! 

Next two weeks look unsettled for sure, here's hoping we get some temp cooperation. 

November ended up just over 2 degrees BELOW normal at MDT... Here you go courtesy of CTP.

THE HARRISBURG PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER 2019...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010 

AVG. MAXIMUM 50.9 53.1 -2.2 48.0

AVG. MINIMUM 32.5 35.1 -2.6 35.3

MEAN                  41.7 44.1 -2.4  41.7

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Based on what??  Please let us know what your seeing?

Not sure how much you read, but the base state is much more conducive to at least windows of opportunity.  NAO EPAC MJO are all showing signs of wanting to play along this year, or at least not be stuck in bad phases.  Do we score, well that/s anybody's guess, but the signals are pointing to good trackin weather (hunter in me) snow or no snow. 

Daxx, I'm right w/ ya bud.  I think we may be tired in the foreseeable future.  

 

 

Yes, many late nights on the way. This pattern is loaded with potential for snow.

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1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

Maybe I'm reading it wrong but gfs seems to not have very much waa precip before 850s warm above freezing on Mon Night event.

No you got it right.  GFS has been in the warm camp (believe it or not).  has been trending better till 18z, then ridging seemed to creep back north a bit in the east.  

Look at NAM nest as it will soon be adding more clues for next weeks potential storm.  At this juncture, look at 500/700 panels as they will give you clues to where it goes.  From their you can form your best conclusion as to what kind of precip will fall and where based on thermal profiles and wind.  Welll thats how i do it anyway.  

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and as I said the other day, the closer/quicker we get precip in here on the heels of the weekend rainer, the better, as any WAA will be coming into a cooler column, and thats how we can get frontended a bit.  Based on GFS pattern, any appreciable frozen is not likely IMO.  Taint too quickly.  Gotta hope the Euro wins the day and we have a chance for some fun.

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1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

No you got it right.  GFS has been in the warm camp (believe it or not).  has been trending better till 18z, then ridging seemed to creep back north a bit in the east.  

Look at NAM nest as it will soon be adding more clues for next weeks potential storm.  At this juncture, look at 500/700 panels as they will give you clues to where it goes.  From their you can form your best conclusion as to what kind of precip will fall and where based on thermal profiles and wind.  Welll thats how i do it anyway.  

Thanks for the info man, seems we just need the precip to come in fast and heavy instead of light and late like the gfs shows.

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