Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion


 Share

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah, but if you look at the 12z, its a cutter.  I really only posted for fun as an "I'm baaaack" kinda thing cause some of you may know i like snow.

Gotta look deeper to see where the base state is headed to see what fits storm/pattern wise.  

All said, still nice to see blues replacing greens on precip panels :).  

edit - Just looked at the ENS run at same time and its nowhere close to the OP....but its better, so I'll hug it for now :).

 

 

yeah, I know you did. I was really just joking about it. I'll also HUG anything that shows SNOW that is a for sure! Glad to see you back.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That, and we're all resting up for our 100" winter. :sled:

There is a half truth to that statement.  Just because we got snow (well some/most) earlier this week, and most are on the proverbial snow board....it really is quite early to be knee deep in tracking, as climo says close be not quite yet. 

I will say it has been rather wintry up in the northern tier, as they've had multiple snow events, but southern tier is still a late fall feel.  Looking at the nooners, says we should continue to progress towards show time round here. I'm happy to see normalish with no anomalous warm/cold.  Good by me... for now....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, Voyager said:

 

Closest I've ever come to a 100" winter was this one. Another one of these would make most in this sub-forum quite happy...

 

snowfall02_03.gif

I had 44" that winter...28" of which came from one storm. Plenty of worse outcomes here, above average for sure,  but at least here I've done far better. 09-10 I had about 70".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the biggest issue the next 6-10 days is a bit of a progressive pattern and not much western ridging to be had.. keeping us vulnerable to cutters despite what looks to be a pretty decent cold shot behind the storm progged for early next week. Models are quite insistent on something fairly significant in that D8 realm. The problem is it appears the cold air is pretty well displaced from the eastern seaboard even in the 12z GFS case of having a coastal low run right up the coastline (no high in place either). There's a lot of time for that to evolve but that's where we're at with that currently.

NAO realm has shifted to postive as well, after the downstream blocking was a big factor in us very nearly being more directly in what was a blockbuster snowstorm not all that far away from our subforum at the beginning of the week. Such is how it goes a lot of times this early. At the moment, I don't see anything particularly detrimental pattern wise in the longer range to say we won't have chances...but there are some limitations to consider.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, canderson said:

I remember looking at the Canadian in late August and it showed us getting 3-4” snow. 

That model is wack. 

I cannot honestly recall a single time EVER (I'm sure that it has) that the Canadian model verified. For as much abuse that the NAM gets on these boards I'll take that model to the bank compared to the Canadian. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I cannot honestly recall a single time EVER (I'm sure that it has) that the Canadian model verified. For as much abuse that the NAM gets on these boards I'll take that model to the bank compared to the Canadian. 

I will chime in my agreement to this thought.  The Canadian is the Jim Carrey "so your saying there's a chance" model.  Its on par with the NOGAPS/NAV outside of a day or two range. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Current mid range models really suggest an unsettled, up and down week for the LSV...a soaking rain Monday, temps near 60 on Tuesday, Snow on Wed (at least falling), potential for 2-3" of rain over the rest of the week then up near 60 again Sat. 

& then a great pattern setting up with cold & snow chances for the week before Christmas!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

& then a great pattern setting up with cold & snow chances for the week before Christmas!

was thinking the same thing, as yeah this week is a rollercoaster w/ temp/precip/mood swings :)., then next week looks to be another step in the right direction.  Still doesnt look to lock in, but flow thickness's are getting right that as long as we keep thrown precip this way, were gonna hit on some of them.  Typical for our region...especially at this time of year.  Beats the blazes outta warm n dry....

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

0 divided by 2 is....zero! I'm back lol. Happy Holiday season to all of you, had a job change and a move(not far South Williamsport to Montgomery, PA and wasn't really keeping up with weather all that much and Canderson and itsrainingtime will send pms on stuff I previously tried to get you if info is same I'll be able to do so now. Hope you guys are all doing well and you cash in Wednesday!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...