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Fall/Early Winter 2019 Forecasts and Discussion


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I'm down to 31.6 now just before 9:30.  Was at my sister's in northern NJ and returned home a few hours ago.  What I couldn't figure out is how Mt. Holly has them (Morris County) going from a mix over to all snow Monday morning with 2 to 4 inches of accumulation forecast by Monday night.  How can they be going from a mix to all snow during Monday while we are forecast to go from a mix over to all rain during Monday with no accumulations?  That difference does not make any sense to me.

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53 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I'm down to 31.6 now just before 9:30.  Was at my sister's in northern NJ and returned home a few hours ago.  What I couldn't figure out is how Mt. Holly has them (Morris County) going from a mix over to all snow Monday morning with 2 to 4 inches of accumulation forecast by Monday night.  How can they be going from a mix to all snow during Monday while we are forecast to go from a mix over to all rain during Monday with no accumulations?  That difference does not make any sense to me.

CCB? I think rates are part of it.

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

CCB? I think rates are part of it.

I guess so.  Intensity would definitely make a difference.  But the models have been consistently painting 1-2" for us by the end of the storm.  Most of that should be the Sunday night/Monday event.  Yet, State College says virtually no accumulations from part 2 for LSV region.  My own feeling is that once we go over to snow early Monday it won't go back to rain and temps will never reach 40 for highs like they currently are forecasting.  If the ULL does in fact pass right over us or just south of us that is where the lowest heights are located which should translate into frozen precip and not liquid IMHO.

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Winter Storm Warning is up for 9-15 inches which would be big for the time of year. Have had three snow "events" to date with all three less than 2". 

It seems like prior  to the past  two years I spent most of my time from 2010-2017 smoking cirrus why you guys south of me have been getting crushed. Good end of winter in 2017 and decent snows in 2018. Hopefully we get widespread Miller B storms across the forum in 2019-fingers crossed!

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Nice batch of precip moving up into Adams/Franklin...my wife is heading over to 81 and taking it all the way down to 77. Think any of that precip is freezing on contact? 

I do not think it is   Its 35 on my side of the mountain and plain rain and the Wunderground map shows just a station or two at or below freezing as of now and rain has already passed through all these locations.  So this morning, if I were driving, I would treat it like one of those "bridge freezes before roads" situations if on a small side road but I still cannot see any interstates freezing with all the traffic.  FWIW, the WWA was dropped south of the Mason Dixon. 

 

image.thumb.png.d13dd1f31d2fb0f35b0a425f872a0b62.png

 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I do not think it is   Its 35 on my side of the mountain and plain rain and the Wunderground map shows just a station or two at or below freezing as of now and rain has already passed through all these locations.  So this morning, if I were driving, I would treat it like one of those "bridge freezes before roads" situations if on a small side road but I still cannot see any interstates freezing with all the traffic.  FWIW, the WWA was dropped south of the Mason Dixon. 

 

image.thumb.png.d13dd1f31d2fb0f35b0a425f872a0b62.png

 

Thank you very much! What you told me is what I told her. Appreciate your thoughts...

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39 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thanks and yes...she's got 500 miles to Boone, NC. 

There is also traffic cams of course....let you see the rate of traffic down 81.   Here is one from Carlisle and Chambersburg. 

https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/?latlng=40.18684,-77.211774

https://www.weatherbug.com/traffic-cam/?latlng=39.963996,-77.578003

 

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10 minutes ago, daxx said:

I think the odds are increasing for parts of the lsv tomorrow to see at least some snow.  If some areas can manage to stay under any intense bad for awhile, they might squeeze out a couple inches.  Hopefully we all can cash in a little. 

I agree though the EC quick withdrawal of moisture bothers me.  I still think Eastern LSV has the best chance being the closest to the departing surface low. 

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26 minutes ago, daxx said:

I think the odds are increasing for parts of the lsv tomorrow to see at least some snow.  If some areas can manage to stay under any intense bad for awhile, they might squeeze out a couple inches.  Hopefully we all can cash in a little. 

Might not be a lot of accumulation but it could be a fun little dynamic event for a while.

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