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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The precip across WNY is having some back building as the winds go NE and get added moisture from Ontario.

codnexlab.NEXRAD.BUF.N0Q.20191112.259.02

 

Filling in nice. Syracuse gonna get some lovin’ real soon. Off topic but Ganges Michigan. Drag band right now. Foot of snow expected there in the next 6-10 hours... love the lake effect that comes of Lake Michigan. Jealous I never experienced late effect. It must feel so different from synoptic with those insane rates

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Do you only have access to this if you are part of the NWS? Is this posted just because of the record or continuously posted throughout all storms?

The snowfall amount itself was just posted because of the storm.. NWS twitter and NWS chat is a public resource though. 

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KBUF 120254Z 02011KT 1/2SM R23/5000V6000FT SN FZFG VV009 M03/M06 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP151 SNINCR 1/7 P0004 60013 T10331056 58018

During storms, you can look at this in the METAR here: It shows "snow increasing rapidly"...with 7" inches on the ground and 1" in the past hour to get an estimate on what they're showing. 

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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

KBUF 120254Z 02011KT 1/2SM R23/5000V6000FT SN FZFG VV009 M03/M06 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP151 SNINCR 1/7 P0004 60013 T10331056 58018

During storms, you can look at this in the METAR here: It shows "snow increasing rapidly"...with 7" inches on the ground and 1" in the past hour to get an estimate on what they're showing. 

How do you read this? Looks interesting and resourceful

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Buff Weather appears to have a good eye...just as the back end approaches you can see the area fill in on a NE/SW orientation. I'm optimistic of 10" and a foot is not impossible from buffalo to lake Ontario

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The heaviest snow is now covering far WNY this evening with
snow rates of 1-1.5"/hr, with lower snow rates further east. The
SE edge of the precipitation band has been somewhat stubborn
over the past several hours, with a few areas in the Southern
Tier seeing very little or no precipitation thus far, although
that will change overnight with a burst of snow. Areas along the
SE edge have also had a little mixed precipitation, either from
a warm nose poking across the 0C line near the state line, or
from a lack of moisture in the column further NE across the
Finger Lakes to the Southern Adirondacks. But all areas should
see snow, or a return to snow as the upstream trough continues
eastward and finally pushes the slow moving band of
precipitation east overnight.

Once the steady snow moves east, expect a notable decrease in
snow intensity from west to east late tonight through early
morning Tuesday. Initially, the airmass will not cold enough in
the boundary layer to support lake enhancement with the
favorable dendritic crystal growth zone residing way up at
around 15K feet. This will change later tonight during the last
few hours of this event as the favorable dendritic crystal
growth zone descends beneath the lake induced equilibrium level.
This will bring some added snowfall along the south shore of
Lake Ontario from Niagara County eastward to Wayne County,
including the Rochester area.

A Winter Storm Warning remains with storm total accumulations of 7-
10 inches, with some local amounts of close to 12 inches where
mesoscale banding and/or lake enhancement develops. The bulk of this
accumulation will be through the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday,
when travel conditions will be worst. Snowfall amounts will be
much lower across far southern Cattaraugus and southern Allegany
counties, where the wintry mix will hold snow amounts to the
3-5 inch range

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8.6" in West Seneca at 10:30pm, snow continues to fall. Average just over 7" in my yard with 5 different measurements. Should hit 10" before all is said and done here. 

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So this is interesting.  Buffalo makes this statement tonight

"Once the steady snow moves east, expect a notable decrease in snow intensity from west to east late tonight through early morning Tuesday. Initially, the airmass will not cold enough in the boundary layer to support lake enhancement with the favorable dendritic crystal growth zone residing way up at around 15K feet. This will change later tonight during the last few hours of this event as the favorable dendritic crystal growth zone descends beneath the lake induced equilibrium level. This will bring some added snowfall along the south shore of Lake Ontario from Niagara County eastward to Wayne County, including the Rochester area."

However Cleveland is sitting at 34 with with definitive and indisputable lake enhancement right now.  I'm not calling them out, just curious about the discrepancy.  This radar is a beaut! 

CLE_loop.gif.8b2128fa8cada46e250f8e8bef689dd7.gif

 

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Snowfall rate of about .75/ hour over the last 3. At 6” now. Could see hitting double digits with a little love from the lake. Gonna be a big gradient for this one. Definitely was a bit warmer aloft. 
Any thoughts on which model performed the best? EURO had the NW idea but didn’t pickup the warm nose or dryslot (or whatever we’re calling it). 

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31 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

8.6" in West Seneca at 10:30pm, snow continues to fall. Average just over 7" in my yard with 5 different measurements. Should hit 10" before all is said and done here. 

We were right at 7” when I went out to snowblow just after 10, and it’s inch-per-hour stuff, so I think we’re gonna hit 10” easily. Good head start, to get over 10% of our mean seasonal snowfall before it’s even November 15!

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Just now, DeltaT13 said:

So this is interesting.  Buffalo makes this statement tonight

"Once the steady snow moves east, expect a notable decrease in snow intensity from west to east late tonight through early morning Tuesday. Initially, the airmass will not cold enough in the boundary layer to support lake enhancement with the favorable dendritic crystal growth zone residing way up at around 15K feet. This will change later tonight during the last few hours of this event as the favorable dendritic crystal growth zone descends beneath the lake induced equilibrium level. This will bring some added snowfall along the south shore of Lake Ontario from Niagara County eastward to Wayne County, including the Rochester area."

However Cleveland is sitting at 34 with with definitive and indisputable lake enhancement right now.  I'm not calling them out, just curious about the discrepancy.  This radar is a beaut! 

CLE_loop.gif.8b2128fa8cada46e250f8e8bef689dd7.gif

 

I think BUF was kinda making a statement about it making an appreciable difference. At least that's how I took it. Lake enhancement isn't very effective in producing extra snow if you aren't getting the convection through the SGZ. Also, the deeper cold air is working into western Lake Erie right now, so that doesn't really disagree with their earlier discussion. 

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1 hour ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

How do you read this? Looks interesting and resourceful

KBUF - station identifier (Buffalo airport)

120254Z - date and time of observation (12th at 2:54 Z = 9:54 PM EST)

02011KT - wind direction and speed (020 degrees or NNE at 11 knots)

1/2SM - visibility (1/2 statute mile)

R23 5000V6000 FT (runway 23 visibility variable 5000 to 6000 ft)

SN FZFG (obstruction to visibility in this case moderate snow and freezing fog)

VV009 - not sure what this is

M03/M06 - temperature and dew point in Celsius 

A2995 - altimeter reading (29.95 inches)

This is followed by remarks

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9 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think BUF was kinda making a statement about it making an appreciable difference. At least that's how I took it. Lake enhancement isn't very effective in producing extra snow if you aren't getting the convection through the SGZ. Also, the deeper cold air is working into western Lake Erie right now, so that doesn't really disagree with their earlier discussion. 

It might not make an appreciable difference in total inches but it really helps maintain the treacherous roads and overall impact for those locations.  I also wonder if the entire south shore of Erie looks like that but the radar is overshooting it all?

Buffalo specifically mentions boundary layer temps which are definitely warmer there.

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Now that I think of it, perhaps the ASOS in cleveland is right near the water or heavily influenced by a shallow layer of modified Lake erie air and the rest of the column is much colder.  hmmmm

Either way, I think that bodes well for at least a few hours of similar snow off of Ontario Later tonight. 

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1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said:

It might not make an appreciable difference in total inches but it really helps maintain the treacherous roads and overall impact for those locations.  I also wonder if the entire south shore of Erie looks like that but the radar is overshooting it all?

Buffalo specifically mentions boundary layer temps which are definitely warmer there.

Yeah but the end of the sentence mentions the SGZ, so I think they mean the entire lower atmosphere as a whole, which i agree with. The boundary layer per say supports some lake enhanced precipitation. If you had a legit lake enhanced setup you would be upping ratios considerably over 10:1 because you would be getting dendrites from the convection mixing in with the crappier flakes from the synoptic storm. 

They mention the lake enhancement at the end of the storm, which would do exactly as you said its probably going to. 

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METAR text: KROC 120454Z 01020G24KT 1/2SM R04/3500V5000FT SN FZFG VV008 M03/M05 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP147 P0004 T10331050 400281033
Conditions at: KROC (ROCHESTER , NY, US) observed 0454 UTC 12 November 2019
Temperature: -3.3°C (26°F)
Dewpoint: -5.0°C (23°F) [RH = 88%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.93 inches Hg (1013.6 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1014.7 mb]
Winds: from the N (10 degrees) at 23 MPH (20 knots; 10.3 m/s)
gusting to 28 MPH (24 knots; 12.3 m/s)
Visibility: 0.50 miles (0.80 km)
Ceiling: indefinite ceiling with vertical visibility of 800 feet AGL
Clouds: obscured sky
Weather: SN FZFG  (moderate snow, freezing fog)

METAR text: KROC 120354Z 03012KT 3/4SM R04/5000VP6000FT -SN BR OVC006 M02/M03 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP144 SNINCR 1/7 P0005 T10221033
Conditions at: KROC (ROCHESTER , NY, US) observed 0354 UTC 12 November 2019
Temperature: -2.2°C (28°F)
Dewpoint: -3.3°C (26°F) [RH = 92%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.93 inches Hg (1013.6 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 1014.4 mb]
Winds: from the NNE (30 degrees) at 14 MPH (12 knots; 6.2 m/s)
Visibility: 0.75 miles (1.21 km)
Ceiling: 600 feet AGL
Clouds: overcast cloud deck at 600 feet AGL
Weather: -SN BR  (light snow, mist)

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