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https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1

Buffalo airport is over a foot of snow and its 11/12. My call for 5-10% above normal for the year is looking good. Some chances the next few weeks too. We don't have any really cold air but could be cold enough at times. Very up and down pattern coming up next 2 weeks. 

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Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

My dad got me an ariens 24" snowblower from one of his jobs. It started a few months ago, but this morning it just wasn't having it. He's coming over to try to fix it and if not I'm just going to buy a new one.

If its just the motor one of the funnest projects ive done was swapping the tired old 8hp motor of my grandfathers snowblower and replacing it with a 13hp harbor freight engine for $300.

I couldnt stop laughing the first time i used it. I forget for sure but pretty sure it bolted right up and i just needed a longer belt.

WP_20150228_14_59_11_small.jpg

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Just now, Luke_Mages said:

If its just the motor one of the funnest projects ive done was swapping the tired old 8hp motor of my grandfathers snowblower and replacing it with a 13hp harbor freight engine for $300.

I couldnt stop laughing the first time i used it. I forget for sure but pretty sure it bolted right up and i just needed a longer belt.

WP_20150228_14_59_11_small.jpg

Is that a transformer emblem on the front there?

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21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1

Buffalo airport is over a foot of snow and its 11/12. My call for 5-10% above normal for the year is looking good. Some chances the next few weeks too. We don't have any really cold air but could be cold enough at times. Very up and down pattern coming up next 2 weeks. 

If you break it down to get to that percent above normal the airport would need 93"...so in otherwards normal snowfall from this point on and we are still 6 weeks from actual winter...even though meteorological winter on December 1st is really where I start counting.

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16 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Yep couldnt help myself lol. My wife named it optimus prime.

It’s a beauty! I’ve always wanted to try swapping one out. I just used my new Ariens classic 24”, 9.5 HP. I’m thinking I could of used a little bit bigger tires and more HP, but it’ll do the trick. Not bad for 700. 

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33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1

Buffalo airport is over a foot of snow and its 11/12. My call for 5-10% above normal for the year is looking good. Some chances the next few weeks too. We don't have any really cold air but could be cold enough at times. Very up and down pattern coming up next 2 weeks. 

I think there's a positive correlation with November snow and winter snow for Buffalo, I'd have to run the numbers. 

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8 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

I think there's a positive correlation with November snow and winter snow for Buffalo, I'd have to run the numbers. 

There is definitely a correlation in temps I believe, not sure how to swipe it from the Mid Atlantic forum but one of their regular posters to the FRD or PSUHoffman posted a map that showed if we are below average in November there was a correlation to negative anomalies that upcoming winter as well...let me see if I can locate it

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49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

My dad got me an ariens 24" snowblower from one of his jobs. It started a few months ago, but this morning it just wasn't having it. He's coming over to try to fix it and if not I'm just going to buy a new one.

Geez man, don't do that.  Ariens will run for decades.  I have one right now from the 80's and its an absolute beast.  Usually a little starter fluid in the carb will get it running if it won't start.  Otherwise, just pony up 200 bucks to have the carb rebuilt and general once over and it will be good to go for years.   Save your money to fix that fence!

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I thought we had decided to stop calling it a dry slot, lolz.  An open wave type storm doesnt have a dry slot, it just didnt have much moisture on the SE flank.  Anyway, I'm not even sure the surface low went much further NW, I just think the frontogenic forcing setup further North, the storm track seemed to go more or less as planned, it was the precip shield that didnt work out as expected.  

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3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I thought we had decided to stop calling it a dry slot, lolz.  An open wave type storm doesnt have a dry slot, it just didnt have much moisture on the SE flank.  Anyway, I'm not even sure the surface low went much further NW, I just think the frontogenic forcing setup further North, the storm track seemed to go more or less as planned, it was the precip shield that didnt work out as expected.  

Yeah, I mean models are pretty notorious for focusing too much precipitation in cold season northeast of lows near low level warm advection maximas and not focusing enough precipitation in the deformation zone northwest of lows. The other issue, of course, is that even if the qpf in the warm area of the low is only slightly undermodeled, 850 WAA with 850-700mb temperatures of zero to minus 8 is going to yield shit flake production. 

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9 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I thought we had decided to stop calling it a dry slot, lolz.  An open wave type storm doesnt have a dry slot, it just didnt have much moisture on the SE flank.  Anyway, I'm not even sure the surface low went much further NW, I just think the frontogenic forcing setup further North, the storm track seemed to go more or less as planned, it was the precip shield that didnt work out as expected.  

Well it was an intensifying low even if it was an open wave. Either way Central NY got much lower accumulations then forecasted.

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8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Well it was an intensifying low even if it was an open wave. Either way Central NY got much lower accumulations then forecasted.

The warm nose got further north than modeled for sure, even BUF popped over -4C at 800mb on their 00z balloon last night. I remember only looking at minus 7 to minus 8 in area of the sounding ahead of the event. I think the rgem and the hrrr handled the warm nose advance better than the other models from what I saw. 

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28 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

The warm nose got further north than modeled for sure, even BUF popped over -4C at 800mb on their 00z balloon last night. I remember only looking at minus 7 to minus 8 in area of the sounding ahead of the event. I think the rgem and the hrrr handled the warm nose advance better than the other models from what I saw. 

Hell imagine if that 4 or 5 hour warm nose didn't push so far north...the airport might've picked up another couple inches...that would have been a pretty intense snownaker (outside of lake effect) for this time of the year.

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11 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Hell imagine if that 4 or 5 hour warm nose didn't push so far north...the airport might've picked up another couple inches...that would have been a pretty intense snownaker (outside of lake effect) for this time of the year.

Well, consider this a nice head start for BUF and ROC in the Golden Snowball contest vs SYR. 

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14 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Ended up close to 5" total, lol, what a colossal bust but this was a toughie to bbn forecast for sure and the model that I'll never look at again is the RGEM, horrific for days, it better stick to me so that's for sure!!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

Having grown up on the Jersey short and lived in Philly and NW NJ before moving up here, it’s almost hard for me to ever complain!!

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