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Upstate/Eastern New York


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8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yes it definitely looks like both the Euro and the GOOFUS are coming into pretty good agreement. Almost too good this far out.

Yep I’d rather not be in the bullseye 96 hours out. It’s likely gonna change if only 50-100 miles E or W and like I said yesterday that could be all the difference. Intresting we went from talking about frigid temps with high ratios to it possibly missing us off to the E to rain possibly mixing in just 24 hours. Again I’m waiting until Saturday night/Sunday morning before getting excited as there’s just too much to go wrong this far out with a system like this. 

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I'm starting to get a little more confident in a solution that all the major models are showing. We might get a mix towards the finger lakes for a time so if the track continues as it is currently modeled the totals could be higher...still 24 to 36 hours out to feel comfortable and at that time a winter storm watch might be talked about

 

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Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

I'm starting to get a little more confident in a solution that all the major models are showing. We might get a mix towards the finger lakes for a time so if the track continues as it is currently modeled the totals could be higher...still 24 to 36 hours out to feel comfortable and at that time a winter storm watch might be talked about

 

Yeah looks like a long duration event from Monday into Weds. 

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5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah looks like a long duration event from Monday into Weds. 

Over here in the Greater Toronto area and Niagara we have a bit more wiggle room for the west but not a lot for the east. Should be a fun next few days. Definitely did not think we would be model watching like this in early-mid November 

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1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said:

Over here in the Greater Toronto area and Niagara we have a bit more wiggle room for the west but not a lot for the east. Should be a fun next few days. Definitely did not think we would be model watching like this in early-mid November 

Last mid Nov we had a large storm as well

..Allegany County...
   Andover               12.0   530 AM 11/16  Social Media

...Cayuga County...
   Port Byron            15.0   555 AM 11/16  Social Media

...Chautauqua County...
   Jamestown              6.2   633 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter
   Fredonia               4.0   300 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter

...Erie County...
   Sardinia               8.5   649 AM 11/16  TRAINED SPOTTER

...Livingston County...
   Lima                  11.5   500 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter
   Conesus               10.0   523 AM 11/16  Broadcast Media

...Monroe County...
   2 S Fairport           9.5   613 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter
   Penfield               8.0   620 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter

...Ontario County...
   Bristol               12.0   634 AM 11/16  Social Media

...Wayne County...
   Williamson            10.0   523 AM 11/16  Broadcast Media

...Wyoming County...
   4 W Warsaw            14.0   627 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter

I believe in 2016 central NY had a massive Mid November storm and we all know what happened in Nov 2014. Nov is a winter month around here. December on the other hand... ^_^

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Its Friday, the system is pegged for Monday-Wednesday so how much do you guys actually think this system is gonna move to? 200 miles east and wiff, nah, or 100 miles further West and we taint, that's a better possibility but this system isn't going anywhere this far out, so I wouldn't be to to concerned 3 days out as our Globals are well in range and have been for couple days now.

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The next week should be exciting but who really knows going forward. You know my take on Cold Wet November and the following 3 months so we just might be seeingbbn it again for the 3rd time in the last 5 yrs, Nuts! Last real cold-frigid Winter was 2014-15 and the rest meh. NAO loves to visit us during the Warm months, lol, and goes Positive during the Winter, weird? Who knows but I know sustained cold and snow this time of yr is NOT a good thing but we'll see!

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51 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Last mid Nov we had a large storm as well


..Allegany County...
   Andover               12.0   530 AM 11/16  Social Media

...Cayuga County...
   Port Byron            15.0   555 AM 11/16  Social Media

...Chautauqua County...
   Jamestown              6.2   633 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter
   Fredonia               4.0   300 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter

...Erie County...
   Sardinia               8.5   649 AM 11/16  TRAINED SPOTTER

...Livingston County...
   Lima                  11.5   500 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter
   Conesus               10.0   523 AM 11/16  Broadcast Media

...Monroe County...
   2 S Fairport           9.5   613 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter
   Penfield               8.0   620 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter

...Ontario County...
   Bristol               12.0   634 AM 11/16  Social Media

...Wayne County...
   Williamson            10.0   523 AM 11/16  Broadcast Media

...Wyoming County...
   4 W Warsaw            14.0   627 AM 11/16  Trained Spotter

I believe in 2016 central NY had a massive Mid November storm and we all know what happened in Nov 2014. Nov is a winter month around here. December on the other hand... ^_^

I cant recall 2016, but last year and this year are acting very similar almost to the date. November 9th 2018 I recorded the first slushy 2cm, November 15th I recorded 11cm of snow. This year is a few days ahead with yesterday getting slushy snow and now tracking a bigger system. 

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1 hour ago, mississaugasnow said:

I cant recall 2016, but last year and this year are acting very similar almost to the date. November 9th 2018 I recorded the first slushy 2cm, November 15th I recorded 11cm of snow. This year is a few days ahead with yesterday getting slushy snow and now tracking a bigger system. 

It was a hybrid storm. It mainly impacted central NY. Rochester had 15", Binghamton I believe had 30"?

https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2016-2017&event=A

Lake Effect Summary - November 19-21, 2016 - Storm Total Snow Map

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