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2 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Wow what a difference for only about 7-8 days out between this and the GFS. Canadian says break out the flip flops and GFS says break out the shovels. Who will win on battle of the Halloween forecast.... stay tuned.

Ok the GFS might have very well dipped into the "special brownies" but it's far more reliable than the Canadian model...i think if the Euro temps and the GFS temps are somewhere in the middle (-7c to -8c) then it will depend on time of day...daylight hours cold rain, nighttime wet snow.

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Ok the GFS might have very well dipped into the "special brownies" but it's far more reliable than the Canadian model...i think if the Euro temps and the GFS temps are somewhere in the middle (-7c to -8c) then it will depend on time of day...daylight hours cold rain, nighttime wet snow.

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

8 to 14 Day Outlook - Precipitation Probability

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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Medium range guidance continues to be in poor agreement by Tuesday
and Wednesday of next week with the timing and track of the next
significant trough. The GFS is a solid 2 days faster in swinging the
trough and cold air into the Great Lakes, and would have
implications with lake effect potential. Meanwhile, the 12Z
ECMWF/GEM and ECMWF ensemble mean is far slower, allowing for a
significant warm-up and rain event by the middle of next week, with
the cold air remaining over the Northern Plains. Given the recent
pattern, have once again leaned very heavily towards the ECWMF/GEM
consensus for the long term today.




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Just now, wolfie09 said:

Delta would be one happy guy. 

Would suck for trick or treaters..

What trick or treaters lol? With those wind speeds the kiddos in costume from Buffalo will land up in Syracuse and the ones from Syracuse will end up in Montreal! Halloween cancel for heavy accumulating snow or hurricane force winds? Should be interesting. 

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Last two runs of the GFS have really backed off the lake effect chances for the end of the month...the powerful low it had been showing is now just a week wave that doesn't get shunted westward by the blocking over Greenland...instead it's progressive and theres only a SW that comes out of Canada with little fanfare...one thing I'm noticing is how much more magnified the cold bias is so far on the new GFS. 

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5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Last two runs of the GFS have really backed off the lake effect chances for the end of the month...the powerful low it had been showing is now just a week wave that doesn't get shunted westward by the blocking over Greenland...instead it's progressive and theres only a SW that comes out of Canada with little fanfare...one thing I'm noticing is how much more magnified the cold bias is so far on the new GFS. 

Hence why the NWS heavily favors the Euro/CMC blend over it. Anytime there’s a cold blast in the 8-10 day range as it gets within 5-7 day timeframe it vanishes. Would have been fun to have an early lake effect event but there will be plenty of time for lake effect as we move into the coming weeks. 

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20 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Hence why the NWS heavily favors the Euro/CMC blend over it. Anytime there’s a cold blast in the 8-10 day range as it gets within 5-7 day timeframe it vanishes. Would have been fun to have an early lake effect event but there will be plenty of time for lake effect as we move into the coming weeks. 

I agree...plenty of time, but damn it got the juices flowing for the upcoming winter!!!

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2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019102400_210_479_379.png

This looks much more reasonable with your highest gust over your typical areas to the NE of the lake on a SW wind and in the 70-80mph range instead of 90+ mph gust over CNY. Even if this were to verify it would be a very significant wind event. I remember the high wind event last winter (can't remember exactly when, maybe January?) and there was 75 mph gust across Erie and Niagara Counties and there was quite a bit of damage. There's still quite a bit of leaves on the trees at least a cross the lower elevations of the Niagara Frontier and I'm doubtful they'll be almost all off around here. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. 

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This looks much more reasonable with your highest gust over your typical areas to the NE of the lake on a SW wind and in the 70-80mph range instead of 90+ mph gust over CNY. Even if this were to verify it would be a very significant wind event. I remember the high wind event last winter (can't remember exactly when, maybe January?) and there was 75 mph gust across Erie and Niagara Counties and there was quite a bit of damage. There's still quite a bit of leaves on the trees at least a cross the lower elevations of the Niagara Frontier and I'm doubtful they'll be almost all off around here. Definitely worth keeping an eye on. 


Storm this past winter was Feb 24. Port Colborne gusted to 79mph. Can anyone who has Euro access see how deep it bombs out this storm once it’s up over Ontario? Has it down sub 980 over northern Michigan in the cheap skate version. But yeah if we see winds like that with trees still mostly full in the lake plains on top of some very wet soil with all the recent rain will be some big problems.
c451abb45cf032eb86a61a93d85f6964.jpg


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17 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


Storm this past winter was Feb 24. Port Colborne gusted to 79mph. Can anyone who has Euro access see how deep it bombs out this storm once it’s up over Ontario? Has it down sub 980 over northern Michigan in the cheap skate version. But yeah if we see winds like that with trees still mostly full in the lake plains on top of some very wet soil with all the recent rain will be some big problems.
c451abb45cf032eb86a61a93d85f6964.jpg


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Thank you! Just bought model subscription today since we are now at least getting close to interesting weather.

 

12z gets it down to a minimum of 978 over Michigan/Lake Superior before slowly weakening as it pulls NE, high res wind maps show widespread gust of 60+ mph throughout most of this forum. 

IMG_0655.PNG

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