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Upstate/Eastern New York


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10 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

The storm lurking around day 7 absolutely goes off the charts every few runs.  18z today was no exception.  If a track like that ever verified at this time of year there would be some extreme tree damage from winds.  Just a textbook track.

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Hopefully the leaves are off by then if this happens!

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Ok...fresh off my phone being repaired during the last 5 days, I ask you all...why is the chatter on this site not exploding with what the models have been showing the past 5 days?!?!?! All 3 models are really coming into focus on a huge cold dump after/around the 24th and it has been consistent...im not certain that it will snow or anything organized but the cold will be there in the timeframe through Halloween at least...sign of things to come or just an early surprise???

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Ok...fresh off my phone being repaired during the last 5 days, I ask you all...why is the chatter on this site not exploding with what the models have been showing the past 5 days?!?!?! All 3 models are really coming into focus on a huge cold dump after/around the 24th and it has been consistent...im not certain that it will snow or anything organized but the cold will be there in the timeframe through Halloween at least...sign of things to come or just an early surprise???


Trying to stay reserved so early into the season. Certainly looks interesting but the details are all over the place. I will however get a TINY bit excited that the GFS has held the idea our first possible LES event for two consecutive runs now today. Bring this out of fantasy range and then it’s game on!

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Hello again to all.  Just back from a few weeks in western and central Europe, where the weather was changeable and generally similar to here.  It's that time of year and won't be long now before flakes are flying.  IIRC, a weak/neutral ENSO winter usually provides good winter results in upstate NY.

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Lake band really getting its act together, I don’t remember models really showing this well organized a band of lake effect. Really coming down in West Seneca, really windy too. Definitely feels like fall now! 


Looks like this will be the last shot coming on shore over the next hour. Winds are quickly turning WNW near Long Point. Models noted a brief cellular band into the metro... to quick of an event to really verify.

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5 hours ago, Syrmax said:

Hello again to all.  Just back from a few weeks in western and central Europe, where the weather was changeable and generally similar to here.  It's that time of year and won't be long now before flakes are flying.  IIRC, a weak/neutral ENSO winter usually provides good winter results in upstate NY.

Hey there, neighbor. Looking forward to talking winter weather!

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hey there syrmax..looking into relocating in phoenix...is the phoenix area more comparable to fulton or clay (route 31 corridor) when it comes to lake effect snowfall.. i know its sandwiched right in between the two as the transient town from which route 481 connects them i just didnt know what your experience has been like living in clay vs phoenix and in relation to fulton....didnt know if that wnw lake band that desposits over fulton usually extend down into phoenix most of the time during the 2-3 ft lake storms that fulton receives from time to time??

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12 hours ago, mattny88 said:

hey there syrmax..looking into relocating in phoenix...is the phoenix area more comparable to fulton or clay (route 31 corridor) when it comes to lake effect snowfall.. i know its sandwiched right in between the two as the transient town from which route 481 connects them i just didnt know what your experience has been like living in clay vs phoenix and in relation to fulton....didnt know if that wnw lake band that desposits over fulton usually extend down into phoenix most of the time during the 2-3 ft lake storms that fulton receives from time to time??

That's an interesting call, as it is with a lot of LES.  I'd say northern Phoenix probably gets the better LES when a band is hitting Fulton.  Lots of variables with any given event though.  The PHX school district sticks pretty far north from the town itself, which is why some snow days happen for school when conditions don't seem all that bad closer to the river.  From what I recall (and Wolfie is probably more expert than i am), when Fulton gets hammered, it doesn't necessarily mean Phoenix will, though north of the town center might.  As a thumb rule, mile for mile north of the river does best over the course of a winter.  As you get further south from me, less so, though Liverpool, B'ville etc still get their fare share of LES events.  A lot of the LES in my vicinity tends to be somewhat transient.  We don't usually get the 12+ hour significant dumps as winds tend to veer and are less stable when pointed our way.  So we get a lot of 3-8" events that last and hour to maybe 4 hours, which are generally manageable to get around in as snow removal around here is really good.

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