Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Upstate/Eastern New York


Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, WesterlyWx said:

It’ll come, and it’ll likely be here before we know it. I’m loving this 60-70 degrees and sunshine everyday with mornings starting out in the 40s. Just fantastic! 

Agreed...plus the trees that haven't exploded yet in color will after the next 4 days of near 70° daytime and 45° nights...heading out to Letchworth with the wife and kids Sunday to see the foliage...should be spectacular

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Been watching this for a few days now... Super Typhoon Hagibis is now up to a comparable Cat 5 storm curving toward Japan.
1644a66abf3fd8440e28c40373806ce0.jpg

Strong model agreement the storm will graze Japan and then get pulled up toward Alaska.
0028b9f0e47793c1a4ba8ce042be4778.jpg

General idea here is the storm will get pulled up the Asian cost and possibly bomb back out in the Bering Straight. Details start to diverge here but overall thought is the storm gets caught up and just spins out for a week plus time. As this is going on the storm pumps up the western ridge and starts digging a trough south and east into the upper lakes. Not looking at the details yet but the overall idea holds some needing to watch.
6f8cc683e604b3b4b02e7ded4fe79a5b.jpg
9034f90c0326678f21f6d6327e7d9234.jpg
bd7f07e4129c08cda5e0a366e3de9d16.jpg

Nice easy to read tidbit I saw...
cc6c964c847d8b309bfbde245a946f5d.jpg


.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Been watching this for a few days now... Super Typhoon Hagibis is now up to a comparable Cat 5 storm curving toward Japan.
1644a66abf3fd8440e28c40373806ce0.jpg

Strong model agreement the storm will graze Japan and then get pulled up toward Alaska.
0028b9f0e47793c1a4ba8ce042be4778.jpg

General idea here is the storm will get pulled up the Asian cost and possibly bomb back out in the Bering Straight. Details start to diverge here but overall thought is the storm gets caught up and just spins out for a week plus time. As this is going on the storm pumps up the western ridge and starts digging a trough south and east into the upper lakes. Not looking at the details yet but the overall idea holds some needing to watch.
6f8cc683e604b3b4b02e7ded4fe79a5b.jpg
9034f90c0326678f21f6d6327e7d9234.jpg
bd7f07e4129c08cda5e0a366e3de9d16.jpg

Nice easy to read tidbit I saw...
cc6c964c847d8b309bfbde245a946f5d.jpg


.

Atmospheric thermodynamics are quite amazing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting as another record snowstorm coming to north south Dakota. 2 weeks after record snowstorm in Montana. Pattern of a wild winter setting up? Think this will be a volatile winter with lots of storms? Already seeing it out west probally getting there winter in sept oct into november. Seeing a flip in november to the east I hope. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, tim123 said:

Interesting as another record snowstorm coming to north south Dakota. 2 weeks after record snowstorm in Montana. Pattern of a wild winter setting up? Think this will be a volatile winter with lots of storms? Already seeing it out west probally getting there winter in sept oct into november. Seeing a flip in november to the east I hope. 

image.jpeg.ecde0fb0c81e3ddecf51154799cda766.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wasn’t there a typhoon that set off the downstream ripple prior to one of our prior early season events? Not saying that will happen here but I vaguely remember there being a very powerful typhoon with a similar track to hagibis that led to snow here...

 

nm found it. The nov 14 event. https://buffalonews.com/2014/12/04/super-typhoon-western-pacific-shouldnt-cause-lake-effect-snow-time/

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said:

Wasn’t there a typhoon that set off the downstream ripple prior to one of our prior early season events? Not saying that will happen here but I vaguely remember there being a very powerful typhoon with a similar track to hagibis that led to snow here...

 

nm found it. The nov 14 event. https://buffalonews.com/2014/12/04/super-typhoon-western-pacific-shouldnt-cause-lake-effect-snow-time/

Great find and great read. Thanks for posting. Would be awesome for something similar to happen in several weeks from now but just because there’s a storm in the WPAC does not mean it’s gonna happen again as this article states. One can hope though! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Average first flakes are on the 25th for Buffalo and sooner for those in the Tug region.

Looked back at my weather journal and just last year Rochester had a coating of snow on the 18th of October with several other days around that time having flakes in the air.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Denver was 82 degrees at 3pm yesterday and was 21 degrees by 6am this morning.  A 61 degree drop in 15 hours.   Thats intense!

That is insane to me. I don't think Buffalo has ever experienced anything like that. I'd probably instantly get a sinus infection. Summer to mid winter in 15 hours.

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That is insane to me. I don't think Buffalo has ever experienced anything like that. I'd probably instantly get a sinus infection. Summer to mid winter in 15 hours.


We actually had one of our most extreme temp swings this past winter. Started the day at midnight at 59* by 8am temp was below freezing with lake effects bands forming. By night time we were in the teens. Erie was pretty much shut off at this point but Oswego area saw several hours of blizzard conditions from the lake effect setup. NWS actually classified this storm as a bomb as it dropped over 24mb in 24 hours.

1ac6ab83cbd481cb2ca83405d0a5c1fd.jpg


.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone keeping an eye on this potent Miller B Nor'Easter this week?  Latest runs have the secondary low bombing to 971 just off the coast of Maine.  Looks like a couple of very raw, rainy, and windy days on tap for us.  Before it transitions we get a hefty thump of rain too.  i think the highest peaks of New Hampshire and Vermont might get some significant snows. 

It's fun to have some active weather to track.  We are officially into "interesting weather mode" for the next 7 months.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Equilibrium levels up around 20k!  

There will be a brief break in the rain following the cold front.
Later Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night deeper wrap around
moisture will arrive as the strong mid level closed low crosses the
eastern Great Lakes and heads into New England. The wrap around
moisture and forcing from the mid level trough will produce a few
scattered showers Wednesday night. More importantly, deepening cold
air will support growing lake induced instability. Flow may be
sheared initially, but should align better from the WNW later
Wednesday night as lake induced equilibrium levels rise to 15-20K
feet. This will support a robust lake response east and southeast of
the lakes, with rain showers becoming widespread. Deep moisture and
lift extending up through the graupel growth zone may support some
thunder as well.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...