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October Discobs 2019


George BM
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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Visible satellite would suggest that we probably don't see any big breaks in the clouds, but anything helps.

Yeah I don't see any sustained clearing - but definitely some pockets where the sun could pop out. Any sun could really boost instability so we max potential. 

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Just a little breezy so far today. Although, this brief moderate shower moving through has produced gusty conditions. Reminds me of a tropical system. Roughly 30mph or so but you can see how 50+ will be pretty easy with some convection.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
226 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

The National Weather Service in BLACKSBURG has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northwestern Greenbrier County in southeastern West Virginia...

* Until 300 PM EDT.
    
* At 225 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located near Babcock State Park, moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Rainelle...
  Quinwood...
  Bingham...
  Duo...
  and Anjean.
 

 

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8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Just as we say this things start to clear out south of us......

Yeah today could be a legit deal if we get more than just a bit of sunshine. Line is already taking shape nicely. Lots of wind reports with it already - which is impressive given that it's going through relatively low population density areas. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

Yeah today could be a legit deal if we get more than just a bit of sunshine. Line is already taking shape nicely. Lots of wind reports with it already - which is impressive given that it's going through relatively low population density areas. 

Mid level cloud deck is really clearing out all the way up to Cumberland now.  

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
238 PM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over Lake Erie this afternoon will track
northeastward up the Saint Lawrence River valley through Friday,
dragging a powerful cold front across the Mid-Atlantic this
evening. High pressure will build in for Friday through
Saturday. A much weaker and drier cold front will cross the
region Saturday night. Another high pressure will build across
the region Sunday through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strengthening, dynamic storm system is currently crossing the
eastern United States. So far, we`ve only seen some periods of
rain and considerably warmer-than-normal temperatures with a
gusty south breeze. However, the cold front will cross the
region late this afternoon and this evening. Very strong wind
fields in excess of 50 knots very close to the surface are
resulting in plenty of shear, and the powerful cold front will
also feature a dramatic pressure rise of 10 mb or more in just a
couple hours immediately behind it. The warm and moist air mass
with PW`s closing in on 2 inches is trying to destabilize, and
while its nothing compared to what we get in early summer,
enough CAPE and shear are present with the potent dynamics aloft
to promote widespread severe weather. Most of this should be in
the form of the squall line currently seen on radar over West
Virginia stretching southward into the western Carolinas, which
will be racing northeastward across our region through this
evening. However, just enough instability is present such that a
discrete supercell ahead of the main line can`t be completely
ruled out this evening. With all the wind present aloft, it
won`t take much to bring damaging gusts down to the surface. In
addition, the low level shear will bring a risk of quickly
spinning up tornadoes right on the main line. A tornado watch
may be issued in the next few hours.

With the high PW`s, there is a risk of heavy rain and brief
minor flooding, though expect the rain to be just brief enough
to preclude the issuance of a flash flood watch. Winds may also
last or reintensify right behind the squall line and could gust
up to 45-50 mph for an hour or so right behind the front. Given
the close proximity of this feature to the main squalls, decided
to not issue a wind advisory for locations east of the current
advisory, but its possible a short- fuse one gets issued to
cover this threat in the next few hours. Otherwise, the main
advisory should cover the greater period of higher gusts likely
at the higher elevations in western VA and WV.

Behind the main squall line and winds, clearing skies should
take hold in most areas as high pressure builds in. The cold air
moving in could reach our highest elevations quickly enough to
bring a coating of snow, but this is most likely confined to
locations above 4000 feet, such as Spruce Knob. Elsewhere,
drying conditions with lows in the 40s can be expected after
midnight.
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From Nelson County -

Via WPOA and Wintergreen Fire & Rescue :

“We are currently experiencing hazardous conditions at and around Wintergreen. Winds are gusting over 50 mph, rain is heavy at times, and fog is thick. The wind has stripped nearly all foliage and created slippery roads. Trees have blocked roads and there have been traffic accidents. 

For the remainder of the afternoon, if you're able, please avoid driving and outdoor activities at Wintergreen.”

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6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If hatching is introduced then we go MOD. We're at the highest for ENH right now without going MOD.

The watch probs in our watch and the one to the south would seem to indicate we could go moderate. I'm not sure it'll happen but if there's an event this could be it - especially with potential high impact on Halloween. 

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