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October Discobs 2019


George BM
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19 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah I mentioned this yesterday. This storm is moving into a wall of HP,  so it will be a struggle the further north it gets. GFS has been pretty consistent with depicting this.

Steady moderate rain here, and I doubt I will see any real heavy rain. Hopefully several hours of light to moderate, which is exactly what is needed to dent the drought and get moisture deeper into the soil.

Latest radar returns and trends would seem to reveal the heaviest rains From  I - 95 East,  taking time to run NE but seems to be doing so . Caveat is should the preip shield weaken. 

 

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12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Over a half inch here now. Rain coming down heavier in the last 30 mins.

 

Rainfall picking up here as well. 

I hear a chorus singing by the thousands in your hood CAPE....... 

It sounds like little seedlings singing the praises of rain :)  

 

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Rainfall picking up here as well. 

I hear a chorus singing by the thousands in your hood CAPE....... 

It sounds like little seedlings singing the praises of rain :)  

 

Moles will be back to their normal behaviour- tunneling closer the surface and making ridges in the new lawn lol. At least when they stay subsurface they are easier to trap and I can push the grass back down.

How is your new grass coming along?

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On 10/19/2019 at 7:32 AM, losetoa6 said:

I thought I might be lol. 16 k vs 3k ...yea that's a huge resolution difference. Thanks for replying. 

 

Here's the Noaa link to the HREF . Under "More information"- click members and that's where I saw a list with Hrrr included and also it appears some Gfs physics are incorporated in? No?. This also appears to be the 2nd version of this model just starting this past April 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=qpf_024h_mean&sector=ma&rd=20191018&rt=1200#

 

Screenshot_20191019-075233_Chrome_crop_353x555.jpg

 

        Ok, this is admittedly where it gets more complicated, and it's a good catch on your part.   I have no idea why they do it this way, but SPC basically computes their own HREF.  (Remember that the HREF is just taking existing hi-res models and computing means and probabilities.)     They're including the HRRR, but the "official" HREF Version 2 (implemented October 2017) does not.     Kinda wish that SPC didn't "go rogue" on this or at least identified it more clearly on their site, so I understand why you thought that the HRRR Is included.

         As for physics, a few physics components are shared amongst a lot of the models, but overall, none of the HREF members is overall close to being the GFS.

 

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4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

A few days ago, today was forecasted to be sunny, so no complaints here. 

Rain has been in the forecast here for a while, but a few days ago it looked like my area would be on the NW fringe with a quarter inch or less.

Lets hope we see similar outcomes over the coming months with low pressure moving up from the south and HP to the north.

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